Hezbollah VS Israel : le prochain face-off

Rappel du premier message :

selon les sources israelienne, le hezbollah a multiplié par 10 son inventaire de missiles, et que la part des missiles moyenne/longue portée a augmentée ; ces missiles pouvant atteindre tout le territoire Israelien ; Hezbollah a également reçu des manpads de fabrication iranienne, et il a également procédé à un large recrutement et formation de nouveaux combattants et qu'il peut en aligner jusqu'à 50.000 hommes
sachant que lors de la guerre de 2006, les combattants du parti n'éxcedaient pas 3000 hommes....

Citation :

In the August 9th edition of Jane’s Defense Weekly, Deputy Editor Robin Hughes reveals alleged plans by Iran to supply Hezbollah with “a steady supply of weapons systems,” including Chinese QW-1 and its own Mithaq (or Misagh) man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS). The article cites unnamed western diplomats, who also claim that Iran agreed to provide, “at a later date,” several different types of Russian missiles, including the sophisticated SA-16.
Assuming the information is accurate, the missile transfers are significant for several reasons. First, the missiles are a potential threat not only to Israeli military aircraft but also commercial airliners worldwide. Hezbollah has a long history of terrorist attacks against civilian targets. According to Georgetown Professor Daniel Byman, the organization “was perhaps the world’s most active terrorist organization,” and had a hand in several high profile attacks, including the hijacking of TWA flight 847 in 1985 and the bombing of the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires in 1994. Its involvement in such acts has waned in recent years, but there is no guarantee that it won’t resume these activities, or retransfer the missiles to terrorists with immediate designs on commercial airliners.
Secondly, the transfers violate a nascent but critically important international norm against the transfer of MANPADS to non-state actors, which is codified in resolutions, declarations and agreements adopted by members of several multilateral forums. Some of these agreements explicitly ban the transfer of MANPADS to non-state actors, while others do so indirectly by limiting such transfers to “foreign governments or to agents specifically authorised to act on behalf of a government after presentation of an official EUC certified by the Government of the receiving country.”
The ban is important because missiles transferred to non-state actors are particularly vulnerable to misuse and diversion, as the CIA discovered after dozens, possibly hundreds, of the Stingers it gave to Afghan rebels in the 1980’s ended up in the arsenals of terrorists, insurgents and hostile governments.
Iran is not a member of any of the above-mentioned forums and therefore is not bound by their agreements.* But even if it were, ensuring that Tehran complied with them would be difficult. As the Government Accountability Office has pointed out, these forums lack “mechanisms to monitor or measure members’ implementation” and have “no explicit tools to enforce members’ compliance with their commitments.” In other words, it is up to individual member states to monitor compliance and punish violations.
For these reasons, the onus is on responsible members of the international community, and particularly the countries that stock Iran’s arsenals, to enforce the ban. If they haven’t done so already, these countries should launch an immediate and thorough investigation into the alleged transfers. If Tehran did provide MANPADS to Hezbollah, its trading partners should take immediate steps to discourage similar transfers, including banning future arms sales until Iranian stewardship of its MANPADS meets international standards.
*Iran is a member (or Contracting State) of the International Civil Aviation Organization and the UN General Assembly, both of which have passed resolutions on MANPADS control, but the resolutions are weak, merely “encouraging” or “urging” member states to ban transfers to non-state actors or comply with MANPADS control agreements negotationed in other forums.

Citation :

Senior Hizbullah official Mahmoud Kamati on Wednesday mocked IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, and said all of Israel was within his group's fire range.

A Hizbullah supporter holds a poster of Nasrallah during a rally to mark the third anniversary of the Second Lebanon War in a southern suburb of Beirut.
Photo: AP
SLIDESHOW: Israel & Region | World "Ashkenazi's threats are baseless and are an attempt to draw attention away from the enemy's defeat in Gaza and in Lebanon," Kamati said in an interview with Al-Jazeera. He went on to boast that "all the cities and all Israeli military and industrial centers are within Hizbullah's fire range."
Kamati was responding to remarks by Ashkenazi on Tuesday, who told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that "Hizbullah operatives in Lebanon are in possession of tens of thousands of rockets, with a range of up to 325km."
The Hizbullah official went on to warn that if the IAF bombed Beirut, Hizbullah would retaliate by bombing Tel Aviv.
"The enemy knows that defeat under the current circumstances would be a critical defeat that would change the balance of power in favor of Hizbullah, leading to the destruction of the Zionist entity," Kamati said.
In Tuesday's briefing, the IDF chief told committee MKs that Israel was working to prevent weapons smuggling from a plethora of locations in the region, noting last week's raid of the Francop, on which hundreds of tons of weaponry bound for Hizbullah were discovered.

IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi.
Photo: Ariel Jerozolimski
Kamati, however, denied that the weapons were bound for Hizbullah, calling such claims a "ridiculous lie."
Also on Wednesday, a military court in Lebanon sentenced a Lebanese soldier and his wife to death after the couple were found guilty of spying for Israel, Israel Radio reported.
The court also sentenced the defendant's sister and her husband, who are reportedly living in Israel, to death.
According to the report, the four were found guilty of contacting Israeli agents in order to assist in case of an Israeli attack on Lebanon.

test du "misagh" iranien :

Stinger a écrit:

Vampiro a écrit:

Je pense qu’Israël avait déjà perdu des drones lors de la guerre de 2006. Le Hezbollah a des MANPADS depuis pas mal de temps. Mais à confirmer, je ne suis pas sûr.

Correct si ma mémoire est bonne d'ailleurs ils avait fait des photo avec non ?

En plus des drones, il y a au moins eu la perte d'un hélicoptère de transport. Je reviens d'aller vérifier dans un livre, mais Israël avait perdu un hélicoptère vers le 12 juin 2006 à Yater : un héliportage de commandos durant la nuit a mal tourné, puisque des combattants du Hezbollah les attendaient avec des MANPADS et une machine a été abattue.

Une nouvelle vidéo du Hizbollah montrant des images aériennes de sites militaire sionistes dans le Golan occupé. Il y a une vraie complexité à protéger ce genre d'infrastructure avec la prolifération des drones, assisterons nous à une prolifération d'infrastructure souterraine en réponse ou plutôt à changement de doctrine de défense où on accepte d'être surveillé ?

pyromane a écrit:

Une nouvelle vidéo du Hizbollah montrant des images aériennes de sites militaire sionistes dans le Golan occupé. Il y a une vraie complexité à protéger ce genre d'infrastructure avec la prolifération des drones, assisterons nous à une prolifération d'infrastructure souterraine en réponse ou plutôt à changement de doctrine de défense où on accepte d'être surveillé ?

https://x.com/AJArabic/status/1810632913077014593

Pas le choix ceet beaucoup trop proche ils doivent faire avec je pense

C'est de la propagande de fortes chances que ça soit en Iran et on présente  comme au Liban la vidéo elle peut être faite à n'importe quel endroit

Au delà de la propagande l’ouvrage est impressionnant…. C’est pas les tunnels de Gaza !

Fahed64 a écrit:

Au delà de la propagande l’ouvrage est impressionnant…. C’est pas les tunnels de Gaza !

Les renseignements israéliens ils vont pas passer à côté d'un ouvrage comme ça au Liban bien sûr que c'est impressionnant de fortes chances que ça soit en Iran même si c'est en série les Israéliens ils vont pas rater ça

Darkvador a écrit:

Fahed64 a écrit:

Au delà de la propagande l’ouvrage est impressionnant…. C’est pas les tunnels de Gaza !

Les renseignements israéliens ils vont pas passer à côté d'un ouvrage comme ça au Liban bien sûr que c'est impressionnant de fortes chances que ça soit en Iran même si c'est en série les Israéliens ils vont pas rater ça

Surtout que faire un infrastructures pareil ça fait du bruit et ça demande pas mal de bras , des machines , de l'ingénierie etc

Citation :

The New York Times



Israel carried out a commando raid in Syria on Sunday that obliterated a Hezbollah missile production facility near the Lebanese border, killing a number of people at the site, according to American and other Western officials.

The operation included a daring raid by Israeli special forces, who rappelled down from helicopters and apparently seized materials from the missile facility, the officials said. Ground forces were used in the attack because of its complexity and to recover information from the secret weapons site, the officials said, adding that there were no Israeli casualties.

The officials said the raid included airstrikes on the sprawling site, the Scientific Studies and Research Center, which is near Masyaf, in the country’s northwest.

Syria’s state news agency, SANA, reported on Monday that 18 people were killed and dozens more injured. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group based in Britain that tracks the conflict in Syria, said the strikes hit an area containing a scientific research institute where work on developing short- and medium-range precision missiles is conducted.

Israel has declined to comment on the raid.

Before conducting the strike, Israel notified senior American officials, including Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of United States Central Command, according to a U.S. official. On Sunday, General Kurilla visited the underground war room of the Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command, where he was presented with the military’s operational plans for Lebanon, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

Independent experts, Israeli officials and the U.S. government have described the institute in Syria as a center of weapons research and development, aided by the country’s ally Iran.

Israel has struck Masyaf, about 25 miles from the Mediterranean coast, several times in the past. In 2018, Israel assassinated a Syrian scientist who worked at the facility developing precision-guided munitions.

In fact, Israel has been gunning for the facility for many years, according to a former senior Israeli official who still advises the government and is familiar with Israeli efforts to neutralize the site.

Chemical weapons were developed there before Syria’s civil war began in 2011.

Years later, he said, Gen. Qassim Suleimani, who was leading Iranian foreign operations, urged President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to allow Iranian scientists to refurbish the weapons labs at the site, which had become a key missile and munitions manufacturing facility for Hezbollah. Israeli officials believe that Hezbollah wanted the facility to be in Syria because its leaders thought Israel would be less likely to strike Masyaf than sites in Lebanon.

One of the Western officials said Israel had attacked the facility several times but could not reach the fortified inner rooms with airstrikes alone. The decision to send in commandos, he said, was to make sure that this time, the site would be destroyed.

The airstrikes late Sunday and early Monday amounted to one of the deadliest attacks in Syria in months. SANA said that in addition to the 18 dead, 37 people were injured in the strikes, including six who were in critical condition. The agency said that roads and water, power and telephone infrastructure were damaged.

Although the facility has, in the past, been associated with chemical weapons production, there was no such work being done there in recent years, officials said.

But the facility was making precision-guided missiles for Hezbollah, which some government analysts feared would allow the group to strike targets more accurately in northern Israel.

Writing in the “Syria Weekly” Substack, Charles Lister, the director of the Middle East Institute’s Syria and counterterrorism programs, offered more details about the Israeli operation.

Mr. Lister said that an initial round of Israeli airstrikes destroyed at least four Syrian military positions around Masyaf, including an air defense site.

A second round of strikes hit a building in the complex that connects to underground tunnels, he said.

In the operation’s third phase, Mr. Lister said, several Israeli helicopters crossed into Syrian airspace and dropped off several dozen Israeli commandos on the outskirts of the bunkers.

As the Israeli soldiers advanced on the bunkers, Israeli drones attacked Syrian military troops who were rushing to the scene, he said.

Officials briefed on the operation said the main goal of the ground assault was to destroy the facility. An important secondary objective, officials said, was to collect intelligence about Hezbollah’s weapons development.

Mr. Lister said the facilities in Masyaf and in the neighboring town of Mahruseh have been central to Syria’s development of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, barrel bombs and thermobaric munitions, weapons with special explosive mixtures typically used to destroy buildings and tunnels.


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/us/politics/israel-raid-syria-weapons.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb&ngrp=mnp&pvid=32B07ADA-3817-4FD0-8E70-C86019AE4317

Mossad flexing


Des appareils de communication transportés par des membres du ont explosé dans plusieurs régions libanaises

Des images et des vidéos effrayants sur X , je veux pas les partager, des centaines des videos deja

C’est un coup de génie de la part des israéliens !

Ils sont effrayants d’ingéniosité dans l’art de la guerre.

2 brigades hors d’action avant meme le debut de l’invasion du Liban

Master Bitchslap

Played them like a fiddle really. Not only it is a master stroke from Israel, but also a catastrophic failure from Hezbollah's operatives and leadership...

Environ 500 membres du Hezbollah ont perdu la vue aujourd'hui dans des explosions radio

Il va fort le gars côté ironie

Même s’ils sont différents, le meurtre de Henniyeh et le fiasco de Pager ont le même message : l’Iran ne peut pas protéger ses armes dans la région, car l’Iran elle même est infiltré au maxi, et c’est le message qu’Israël délivre au Hamas et au Hezbollah.

Meme si l’affaire Pager a un impact tactique plus important qu’une simple manœuvre de guerre psychologique comme celle de Henniyeh.

C’est quasiment 10% des effectifs du Hezbollah voir plus en terme de commandement.

Il a été de facto décapité.

Darkvador a écrit:

Il va fort le gars côté ironie

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1836120537883644049?t=EYt6VbwsZ3XHHJzaeMlTMg&s=19

A little bit too much on the childish side I would say. Irony is best when it is subtle. Musk is as subtle as a freight train.

Duneraider 2.0 a écrit:

Darkvador a écrit:

Il va fort le gars côté ironie

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1836120537883644049?t=EYt6VbwsZ3XHHJzaeMlTMg&s=19

A little bit too much on the childish side I would say. Irony is best when it is subtle. Musk is as subtle as a freight train.

yes I completely agree with you I find it a bit inappropriate

Fahed64 a écrit:

C’est quasiment 10% des effectifs du Hezbollah voir plus en terme de commandement.

Il a été de facto décapité.

La plupart des chiffres ne concernent que Beyrouth, nous ne savons rien de Baalebek, de Tyr et des régions du sud du Liban, en particulier dans les collines ouverte ou de nombreux combattants du Hezbollah sont stationnés.

On peut comparer celle la à l'attaque menée par l'IAF en 1967 contre les moyens aériens égyptiens. C’est une frappe paralysante

Ça va clairement refroidir les velléités irano-chiite dans la région.

Ce qui m'intéresse de savoir si c'est un batch de pagers détourné, dans lequel on a placé du C4, ou bien ils ont juste fait chauffer les batteries au point de faire exploser le bidule ? Un tweet supprimé de Snowden allait dans le sens de la 2eme hypothèse, et si c'est vrai c'est un danger pour tous les dirigeants du monde.

The New York Times

Israël a mené mardi son opération contre le Hezbollah en cachant du matériel explosif dans un nouveau lot de téléavertisseurs de fabrication taïwanaise importés au Liban, selon des responsables américains et d'autres sources informés de l'opération.

Les téléavertisseurs, que le Hezbollah avait commandés à Gold Apollo à Taiwan, avaient été trafiqués avant d'arriver au Liban, selon certains responsables. La plupart étaient des modèles AP924 de la société, bien que trois autres modèles Gold Apollo aient également été inclus dans la livraison.

Le matériel explosif, d'une à deux onces seulement, a été implanté à côté de la batterie de chaque téléavertisseur, ont déclaré deux des responsables. Un interrupteur a également été intégré qui pouvait être déclenché à distance pour faire exploser les explosifs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-pagers-explosives.html?smid=url-share