messages : 21656 Inscrit le : 15/09/2009 Localisation : 511 Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Sam 27 Nov 2010 - 17:06
Rappel du premier message :
suite au post d´Aslan..y´aura des degats,l´Allemagne aussi alertée
Citation :
Le monde se prépare à de nouvelles révélations par WikiLeaks, Washington appréhende
(AFP) – Il y a 11 heures
WASHINGTON — Des gouvernements du monde entier se préparaient en ce début de week-end à de nouvelles révélations par WikiLeaks, sous la forme d'un tourbillon de câbles diplomatiques américains potentiellement embarrassants pour les Etats-Unis et leurs partenaires.
L'administration Obama avait annoncé dès mercredi que ses services diplomatiques avaient entrepris de préparer des gouvernements étrangers à la publication prochaine de documents secrets susceptibles de créer des "tensions" avec eux.
Dans un entretien sur CNN qui sera diffusé dimanche dont l'AFP a obtenu la retranscription vendredi, le chef d'état-major interarmées américain, l'amiral Michael Mullen, a estimé que les agissements de WikiLeaks étaient "extrêmement dangereux", notamment pour la sécurité des soldats américains, appelant les responsables du site à renoncer à ces révélations.
De son côté, le porte-parole du département d'Etat Philip Crowley a déclaré que les Etats-Unis se préparaient au "pire scénario". Le département d'Etat avait indiqué plus tôt s'attendre à la publication de documents diplomatiques concernant "un large éventail de dossiers et de pays".
Le porte-parole a spécifié que parmi les pays contactés par la secrétaire d'Etat Hillary Clinton figuraient l'Allemagne, l'Arabie saoudite, les Emirats arabes unis, la Grande-Bretagne, la France, l'Afghanistan.
A Moscou, le quotidien Kommersant a affirmé que les fuites comportaient des appréciations "désagréables" qui pourraient blesser Moscou.
Ces révélations "peuvent provoquer une brouille entre les Etats-Unis et la Russie", tout comme avec la moitié des pays de la planète, écrit le quotidien.
A Rome, le ministre des Affaires étrangères Franco Frattini a été prévenu par Washington que des documents concernaient l'Italie.
Le Canada a indiqué que son ambassade à Washington "s'occupe actuellement de cette question avec le département d'Etat".
A Bagdad, l'ambassadeur des Etats-Unis, James Jeffrey, avait affirmé plus tôt que sa mission était "inquiète" face à des révélations susceptibles de saper "des discussions de confiance".
Le site spécialisé dans la révélation de documents confidentiels a promis lundi de mettre en ligne sept fois plus de documents confidentiels que les 400.000 récemment publiés sur la guerre en Irak.
Les premières fuites de WikiLeaks, en juillet sur l'Afghanistan, contenaient peu d'importantes révélations, et celles émanant d'Irak se concentraient en majorité sur des exactions commises entre différentes factions irakiennes.
Washington pourrait être plus embarrassé par la divulgation de documents rédigés par ses diplomates, en particulier s'ils mettent en cause des partenaires étrangers des Etats-Unis.
Selon le ministère finlandais des Affaires étrangères, l'ambassade américaine dans ce pays pense que cette publication allait être "la plus grave".
Selon un haut responsable israélien, Israël, dont Washington est le plus important allié, a été informé que ces fuites de câbles diplomatiques pourraient porter sur des rapports confidentiels adressés par l'ambassade américaine à des responsables israéliens.
A Ankara, un diplomate turc de haut rang a indiqué que la Turquie avait également été mise au courant.
Selon des informations de presse, les nouvelles révélations porteraient notamment sur une aide de la Turquie aux militants d'Al-Qaïda en Irak et un soutien des Etats-Unis aux rebelles kurdes du Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK), réfugiés en Irak.
Le ministre turc des Affaires étrangères, Ahmet Davutoglu, a ensuite jugé qu'il serait "hors de question" de tolérer des actes terroristes "ayant la Turquie pour origine et visant un pays voisin". Il a aussi insisté sur "la coopération étroite" entre Washington et Ankara face au PKK.
Des responsables en Grande-Bretagne, Norvège et Danemark ont aussi indiqué que leurs pays avaient été informés par les Etats-Unis.
_________________
Auteur
Message
Leo Africanus General de división (FFAA)
messages : 1885 Inscrit le : 24/02/2008 Localisation : Tatooine Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Mer 29 Déc 2010 - 12:32
Corruption en Afrique, rien de nouveau mais tres instructif.
Citation :
ID: 215456 Date: 2009-07-07 12:58:00 Origin: 09YAOUNDE608 Source: Embassy Yaounde Classification: CONFIDENTIAL Dunno: 09YAOUNDE147 Destination: VZCZCXRO5655 RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO DE RUEHYD #0608/01 1881258 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 071258Z JUL 09 FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0076 INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000608
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2019 TAGS: KCOR, EFIN, PREL, PGOV, ECON, CM SUBJECT: (C) CENTRAL BANK SOURCE: "GABONESE STOLE $40 MILLION, FUNNELED SOME TO FRENCH POLITICS"
REF: YAOUNDE 147
Classified By: Political Officer Tad Brown for Reasons 1.4 b and d.
1. (C) Summary. Senior Gabonese officials in the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) colluded to embezzle more than 18.3 billion CFA (about $36 million) from the pooled reserves of the six states of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) over the past five years, according to a senior Embassy contact at the bank. In a June 12 meeting with Poloff, the source, a senior third-country national, said BEAC discovered the crime during internal audits conducted in the wake of revelations that Gabonese national and BEAC Governor Philip Andzembe had covertly placed 500 million Euros in high-risk investmentQwith French bank Societe Generale (reftel). According to the Embassy source, senior Gabonese political leadership, including the late President Omar Bongo and his son, Defense Minister and presidential hopeful, Ali Bongo benefitted from the embezzlement. The source said Gabonese officials used the proceeds for their own enrichment and, at Bongo's direction, funneled funds to French political parties, including in support of French President Nicholas Sarkozy. End summary.
2. (C) The BEAC official asked Poloff to meet on June 12 to discuss "a sensitive issue that I want the U.S. to hear about from me, before it appears in the media." Recalling the political tensions created by the revelation that BEAC Governor and Gabonese national Philip Andzembe had, in violation of BEAC regulations and unbeknownst to the BEAC board, placed 500 million euro of BEAC deposits in a high-risk investment with French bank Societe Generale (Reftel), the BEAC official said the consequent review of BEAC's accounts had revealed even broader and more brazen malfeasance linked to a hierarchy of Gabonese officials throughout BEAC. (Note: Under the agreement that created BEAC in 1972 it was decided that, in light of their relative economic predominance in the region, Cameroon would host BEAC's headquarters while Gabon would maintain exclusive power to appoint the BEAC Governor. For more information on how the politics of oil of affected the region and BEAC see reftel. End note.)
The Easy Way to Rob a Bank --------------------------
3. (C) The BEAC official explained that Gabonese President Bongo's control of BEAC was more extensive than the Governor's office; the Director of Accounting, the Deputy Director of Accounting, the officials overseeing international wire transfers, and the accountant in BEAC's Paris branch have all been Gabonese nationals appointed by Bongo. Working in concert, these officials were able to subvert BEAC's safeguards. The Paris accountant was, until recently, Gabonese national Armand Brice Nzamba, who is a close personal friend of Ali Bongo, according to Post's contact at BEAC. The BEAC official said BEAC had contacted the Paris "financial police" who were investigating Nzamba until he fled France earlier this year. Gabonese national Maurice Moutsinga served as the Director of Accounting in BEAC Headquarters for 20 years until his retirement in 2007.
4. (C) The embezzlement moved through three main Channels, according to the official:
--in checks made out in the names of the BEAC officials themselves; BEAC's investigations have already tracked 18.3 billion CFA ($36.6 million) that were embezzled in checks made out in the name of Gabonese officials. As a result, Nzamba accumulated personal wealth of more than of more 1 billion CFA ($2 million) on an annual salary of about $36,000;
--in checks made payable to shell companies; the main recipients were Papieterie Classique and Tour 55 in France and Chaiab in Morocco, and;
--in checks made out to Gabonese politicians, including the wife of Leon Mebiane, who was Gabon's Prime Minister from 1975-1990.
Did French Politicians Benefit? -------------------------------
YAOUNDE 00000608 002 OF 002
5. (C) Asked what the officials did with the stolen funds, the BEAC official responded, "sometimes they kept it for themselves, sometimes they funneled it to French political parties." Asked who received the funds, the official responded, "both sides, but mostly the right; especially Chirac and including Sarkozy." The BEAC official said "Bongo was France's favorite President in Africa," and "this is classic France Afrique." He said technocrats from the French Treasury were relatively progressive in encouraging the francophone governments to be more autonomous, but that the Banque de France continued to exert an outsized influence.
CEMAC Presidency's React ------------------------
6. (C) The BEAC official said the CEMAC Heads of State were understandably upset to learn about the deeper governance problems at BEAC. In a January 2009 meeting to discuss Anzembe's deal with Societe Generale, Biya had called for Andzembe's immediate dismissal. According to the official, Biya pounded the table during a recent meeting with his CEMAC counterparts and asked, in reference to his own anti-corruption campaign, "Don't you read the press? We throw people like this in jail in my country!" Equato-Guinean President Obiang, long-frustrated that his deposits at BEAC exceeded his influence in the institution, was more "patient," calling for audits because, according to the BEAC official, "he knew what the audits would find [regarding Andzembe's malfeasance] and that the resulting pressure to institute a Presidency that rotates among the member states would be inevitable."
Audit of SG Placement Continues -------------------------------
7. (C) The Audit Committee includes representatives from the six CEMAC economies plus a representative from the French Treasury. The Heads of States agreed to conduct two audits, a general review of internal accounts and a specific investigation into Andzembe's unauthorized placement of funds at Societe Generale. According to the BEAC official, the investigators have yet to understand fully the details of the SG account. "Even SG tells us that they are unable to determine the structure of the investment that Anzembe made!" he marveled. The official theorized that SG had used the BEAC funds to help "plug the hole" created by the Kerviel rogue trader scandal, but that the financial crisis had overwhelmed SG and swallowed BEAC's funds.
Jail for Some; End of Gabon's Monopoly ----------------------
8. (C) The BEAC official said his own government and others would seek jail time for some of the officials, but that there would be pressure to deal delicately with the new Gabonese Government. Ali Bongo, he said, is close personal friends with BEAC Governor Anzembe. Institutionally, he predicted, these scandals will mean the end of Gabon's monopoly on the Governorship, which will now rotate among the member states, and will lead to revisions to internal controls.
Comment: A Governance Lesson Learned ------------------------------------
9. (C) This tale of grand-scale corruption is unfortunate, especially coming as it does during an economic crisis that has depleted the region's resources, but the strong reaction from Biya and Obiang suggests Gabon's foul play might result in better management--more transparency and autonomy--of BEAC's resources. Our hope is that CEMAC leaders internalize the lesson that secretive management of public resources is a recipe for waste and abuse and apply it to BEAC and their domestic institutions. Post is unable to assess the veracity of the allegation that French politicians benefitted from BEAC's loss, but it is the type of claim--that France encourages and preys upon corrupt leaders in the region--that will gain currency in popular opinion if, as the BEAC official predicted, the story leaks to the press. End comment.
GARVEY
mox Capitaine
messages : 949 Inscrit le : 27/07/2010 Localisation : France Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Jeu 30 Déc 2010 - 3:06
Le probléme des cables c'est qu'ils sont telment nombreux que riens que de les lire mérite un salaire ou un CDI, une fuite tu peut prendre le temps de l'analysé mais là il y a saturation
Donc Wikileaks tue le mite de l'espionage et de ses rebondissement.
Leo Africanus General de división (FFAA)
messages : 1885 Inscrit le : 24/02/2008 Localisation : Tatooine Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Jeu 30 Déc 2010 - 10:04
REF: A. A) 2009 BAKU 972 B. B) 2009 BAKU 921 C. C) 2009 BAKU 920 (NOTAL) D. D) 2009 BAKU 909
Classified By: XXXXXXXXXXXX, for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
1. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect) who has demonstrated a wide range of Iranian political and governmental contacts (including relatives). The contact has been known to Iran watcher for over a year, and has reportedly accurately on several sensitivepolitical and economic issues in the past. His etwork includes individuals in positions to possss knowledge of aspects of Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) deliberations (strictly protect - see reftels).
He who Got Slapped ------------------
2. (S) According to source, President Ahmedinejad surprised other SNSC members by taking a surprisingly liberal posture during a mid January post-Ashura meeting of the SNSC called to discuss next steps on dealing with opposition protests. Source said that Ahmedinejad claimed that "people feel suffocated," and mused that to defuse the situation it may be necessary to allow more personal and social freedoms, including more freedom of the press.
3. (S) According to source, Ahmedinejad's statements infuriated Revolutionary Guard Chief of Staff Mohammed Ali Jafari, who exclaimed "You are wrong! (In fact) it is YOU who created this mess! And now you say give more freedom to the press?!" Source said that Jafarli then slapped Ahmedinejad in the face, causing an uproar and an immediate call for a break in the meeting, which was never resumed. Source said that SNSC did not meet again for another two weeks, after Ayatollah Janati succesfully acted as a "peacemaker" between Jafarli and Ahmedinejad. Source added that the break in the SNSC meeting, but not the slap that caused it, has made its way on to some Iranian blogs.
Sides Preparing for New Confrontations --------------------------------------
4. (S) Meanwhile, source said, both sides are digging in for new confrontations, while various sub-groups maneuver. He stressed the importance of recent speeches by Karroubi and Khatami to the effect that Ahmedinejad will not be able finish his term, and that Supreme Leaders should not take partisan political sides. He stressed that "Karroubi chooses each word carefully," and aid the recent speeches reflect an ongoing effort to split Khameini from the Ahmedinejad group. Source described the overall political situation within and without the political elite as "getting worse and worse." XXXXXXXXXXXX opined that this situation (of protests and instability) cannot be sustained indefinitely, and predicted that events are trending towards major developments and a new phases. Asked what Iran will likely look like over the next year, he responded "ask me after 22 Bahman (February 11)."
5. (S) Source (XXXXXXXXXXXX) also asserted that the Iranian Tudeh (communist) party is reorganizing among factory and government workers, and intellectuals. He claimed that many former Tudeh sympathizers hold positions in the bureaucracy and elsewhere, and opined that many still privately support the movement. He mentioned one "XXXXXXXXXXXX organizer who has re-emerged behind the scenes of recent bus worker and other labor strikes. LU
Yakuza Administrateur
messages : 21656 Inscrit le : 15/09/2009 Localisation : 511 Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Jeu 30 Déc 2010 - 10:14
l´eurphorie wikileaks s´est vite refroidie si vous l´avez remarquez,les rapports font plus rappeler a des journaux de boulevard qu´a des secrets serieux.
_________________
Invité Invité
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Dim 16 Jan 2011 - 17:27
Plus de deux semaines que ce topic n'as pas été actualiser. Et comme vous l'avez signaler un peu plus au dessus la presse n'en parle plus comme avant Quelqu'un pour nous expliquer ce refroidissement soudain?
Samyadams Administrateur
messages : 7134 Inscrit le : 14/08/2008 Localisation : Rabat Maroc Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Dim 16 Jan 2011 - 17:41
Renard-du-desert a écrit:
Plus de deux semaines que ce topic n'as pas été actualiser. Et comme vous l'avez signaler un peu plus au dessus la presse n'en parle plus comme avant Quelqu'un pour nous expliquer ce refroidissement soudain?
Yakuza a écrit:
les rapports font plus rappeler a des journaux de boulevard qu´a des secrets serieux.
_________________
klan General de Brigade
messages : 3864 Inscrit le : 22/05/2010 Localisation : France Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Dim 16 Jan 2011 - 18:17
Citation :
De nouvelles données bancaires seront livrées à Wikileaks/Presse dimanche 16 janvier 2011 17h05
ZÜRICH, 16 janvier (Reuters) - Un ancien banquier suisse, qui a déjà publié via le site Wikileaks des documents bancaires internes, a promis de transmettre de nouvelles données concernant environ 2.000 détenteurs de comptes bancaires à l'étranger, rapporte un journal allemand.
Rudolf Elmer, renvoyé en 2002 du groupe Julius Baer (BAER.VX: Cotation) et jugé mercredi en Suisse pour violation du secret bancaire, transmettra de nouvelles informations à Wikileaks lors d'une conférence de presse à Londres, rapporte dimanche Der Sonntag.
Rudolf Elmer a déclaré au journal suisse qu'il transmettrait deux disques compacts contenant les noms et les détails des comptes d'environ 2.000 clients, qui ont placé de l'argent sur des comptes à l'étranger.
Il a précisé que parmi ces clients figurent des personnalités de premier plan du monde des affaires, des artistes, et environ une quarantaine d'hommes politiques. Ces données impliquent notamment des multimilliardaires, des groupes internationaux et des fonds spéculatifs de plusieurs pays, dont les Etats-Unis, l'Allemagne et la Grande-Bretagne.
"Ces documents montrent qu'ils se réfugient derrière le secret bancaire, probablement pour éviter les taxes", a-t-il déclaré au journal.
Ces informations proviennent d'au moins trois institutions financières, parmi lesquelles Julius Baer, a-t-il ajouté, et concernent la période de 1990 à 2009.
Julius Baer n'était pas joignable dans l'immédiat pour commenter ces informations.
Rudolf Elmer précise toutefois que ces données ne devraient probablement pas être publiées dans l'immédiat sur le site.
L'ancien banquier avait déjà transmis en 2007 des informations concernant huit clients aux autorités américaines.
Julius Baer a nié les allégations de Rudolf Elmer, réfutant toute aide à la fraude fiscale, et a accusé ce dernier de mener une campagne de dénigrement contre la banque et contre certains clients après son renvoi.
(Emma Thomasson, Catherine Monin pour le service français, édité par )
source: reuters France
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Mr.Jad Colonel
messages : 1535 Inscrit le : 07/03/2009 Localisation : FL370 Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Mer 19 Jan 2011 - 11:54
Citation :
VZCZCXYZ0004 OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHRB #1238/01 2131222 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 011222Z AUG 07 FM AMEMBASSY RABAT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7072 INFO RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN IMMEDIATE 0063 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0709 RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY PRIORITY 0076 RUEHFN/AMEMBASSY FREETOWN PRIORITY 0021 RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA PRIORITY 0552 RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA PRIORITY 3276C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 001238
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017 TAGS: PREL KPKO IC MO SUBJECT: MOROCCAN TROOPS IN COTE D'IVOIRE: INVESTIGATION OF MOROCCAN PEACEKEEPERS ON SEX ABUSE CHARGES
REF: STATE 102800
Classified By: Ambassador Thomas Riley for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
------- SUMMARY -------
¶1. (C) In response to the points conveyed reftel, MFA Chief of International Organizations Section Nasser Bourita told us on July 26 that the GOM takes the accusations of sexual misconduct against its troops in Ivory Coast seriously, and is sending a high level military delegation to join the UN inquiry. He feels, however, that the GOM troops are scapegoats for larger problems surrounding the discipline of UN peacekeepers in Africa.
¶2. (C) Polcouns and poloff conveyed the USG's concern regarding the recent allegations levied against the Moroccan United Nations Operations in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI) contingent and urged the GOM to conduct a full and fair investigation. End Summary.
------------------------------- GOM CONCERNED AND INVESTIGATING -------------------------------
¶2. (C) Bourita said the GOM takes these charges seriously and planned on sending a high level military delegation to serve as part of the UN inquest team in Cote d'Ivoire on July ¶30. The GOM will take decisive action to punish any individuals against whom accusations are proven. The king stressed military ethics when he ascended to the throne and expects breaches by his forces to be quickly, vigorously and transparently investigated at home and abroad.
--------------------------------------------- TROOPS SCAPEGOATS FOR LARGER UN DEFICIENCIES? ---------------------------------------------
¶3. (C) Bourita said, however, the GOM believes the UN is scapegoating the Moroccan UNOCI troops to show new resolve in the wake of damning reports of smuggling and rape against its peacekeepers in Congo. He protested the sanctions levied against the Moroccan troops now in Cote d'Ivoire stressing that they arrived little over a month ago, while the incidents for which they are being punished occurred over a year ago. When reports of malfeasance first surfaced in 2005, the GOM removed its troop commander, repatriated him for disciplinary action, and has cooperated with the UN investigation ever since. Collective punishment for the as yet unproven actions of individuals was unfair. "How can the entire battalion be punished," he asked, "when the alleged incidents took place in an area where only 250 Moroccan troops were stationed?" He further argued that GOM troops served with NATO in Kosovo and received no complaints. Comment: He did not refer to problems Moroccan troops may have had in Congo. End Comment.
------------------------------ Peacekeeping, Politics and PXs ------------------------------
¶4. (C) Bourita felt that the GOM troops are caught in a political crossfire between Cote d'Ivoire's President Gbagbo and some UN members, who oppose UNOCI and its French leadership, and are seeking opportunities to discredit the mission; and Cote d'Ivoire Prime Minister Soro, who supports UNOCI. As a counter weight to accusations, he pointed to press statements by Soro, who led rebels in the area now under Moroccan supervision, lauding the GOM's troops. He also mentioned a signed statement sent by civilians in the Moroccan zone to the UNOCI Force Commander stating that the GOM's troops had shown "irreproachable behavior." Bourita expanded the scope of his complaint saying that there are larger structural issues regarding UN peacekeeping command and control in Africa that contribute to breakdowns in discipline and degradation in troop effectiveness. Key issues he focused on were:
-units are located far from their commanders with poor lines of communication and little supervision;
-the UN has no, or insufficient, morale, welfare and supply programs, which forces troops to look for incidentals and
entertainment in the areas in which they are posted, increasing the opportunity for unsavory incidents to occur;
-six-month operational rotations (as opposed to one to two month cycles for European troops) with frequent end-of-tour extensions that lead to disgruntlement and breaches in discipline.
------- Comment -------
¶5. (C) We will continue to urge a strong response to the case as we track the Moroccan side of the investigation. Bourita left the impression that the GOM will, in fact, conduct a rigorous inquiry with UNOCI in Cote d'Ivoire. It remains to be seen what type of punishment will be meted out to troops against whom allegations are proven. End Comment.
_________________ “Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.” ― Leonardo da Vinci
Invité Invité
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Jeu 20 Jan 2011 - 18:31
Citation :
ويكيليكس الى كشف حسابات سرية لمسؤولين عرب
لندن 'القدس العربي': قالت تقارير اعلامية ان موقع ويكيليكس يستعد لنشر تفاصيل حسابات سرية لمسؤولين ورجال اعمال عرب في عدد من المصارف الغربية. واضافت ان الحسابات قد تسبب احراجا واسعا لعدد من الزعماء العرب واقاربهم. واشارت الى ان الرئيس التونسي المخلوع يملك حسابات تضم نحو خمسة مليارات دولار، بينما تتعدى ثروات زعماء اخرين اضعاف ذلك. يذكر ان جوليان اسانج كان اعلن عن وجود كثير من الوثائق التي تكشف مخالفات بنكية خطيرة، بالاضافة الى حسابات سرية لمسؤولين ورجال اعمال كبار.
Wikileaks d'exposer des comptes secrets des fonctionnaires arabes
selon les médias sur le site Wikileaks et se prépare à publier les détails des comptes secrets des fonctionnaires et hommes d'affaires Arabes dans un certain nombre de banques occidentales. Elle a ajouté que les comptes peuvent causer de l'embarras et l'échelle pour un certain nombre de dirigeants arabes et de leurs proches. Elle a noté que le président tunisien déchu ont des comptes de quelque cinq milliards de dollars, tandis que la richesse d'autres dirigeants que de l'affaiblir. Le Asanj Julian avait annoncé l'existence de nombreux documents qui révèlent des violations graves de la banque, en plus de comptes secrets des fonctionnaires et des chefs d'entreprise.
MAATAWI Modérateur
messages : 14756 Inscrit le : 07/09/2009 Localisation : Maroc Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Mar 25 Jan 2011 - 15:52
Citation :
Wikileaks: Jordan offered increased support in Afghanistan in exchange for econ aid
AMMONNEWS – A secret cable sent by U.S. Ambassador in Amman, Stephen Beecroft, to Washington earlier last year revealed that Jordanian government and military officials offered Washington a bundle of support measures in Afghanistan, including increasing the number of Jordanian troops there and sending fighter jets to participate in special missions.
In the classified cable, dated January 22, 2010 entitled “Preview of Afghanistan Support Offer in Upcoming Washington Meetings,” the Ambassador revealed that an upcoming trip by Jordan’s top military advisor LTG Prince Faisal Bin Al Hussein and Minister of Planning Jafar Hassan to Washington is expected to witness significant Jordanian offers in military support in Afghanistan in exchange for additional economic assistance.
According to the cable, Jordan was expected to offer support in Afghanistan in the fields of training for Afghan clerics, Police Training, deploying an additional field hospital, deploying additional ground forces, and special operations training for the Afghans and sending fighter jets and helicopters with pilots to conduct combat missions.
Jordan also offered a number of measures in Iraq, according to the cable, to include sale of fighter jets, training of Iraqi fighter pilots, and establishing a Fighter Weapons School.
The cable however noted that despite increased domestic pressures on Jordan to end its military cooperation with the United States, especially following the Khost suicide bombing in December 2009, yet “the Jordanians will make significant offers to increase their assistance during the Washington visit.”
The cable also stressed that Jordanian officials were concerned with economic assistance in exchange for increased military support in Afghanistan.
Below is the full text of the cable: ____________________________________________________
VZCZCXRO5344 OO RUEHBC RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV DE RUEHAM #0219/01 0221343 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 221343Z JAN 10 FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN TO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0427 RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6736 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 6357 RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0221 RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 5762 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0077 RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000219
NOFORN SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020 TAGS: PREL PINS MASS KISL JO AF SUBJECT: JORDAN: PREVIEW OF AFGHANISTAN SUPPORT OFFER IN UPCOMING WASHINGTON MEETINGS
REF: A. AMMAN 0200 ¶B. AMMAN 0091
Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Jordan's top military advisor and brother of the King, Lieutenant General (LTG) Prince Faisal bin Al Hussein, and Minister of Planning Jafar Hassan will travel to Washington during the week of January 25. Their itineraries include meetings with senior U.S. officials in the Department of Defense, the Air Force, the Department of StaQrQQ^,ON2}g5Congress. In the meetings, the Jordanians are expected to offer significant increases to Jordan's security support in Afghanistan in exchange for additional economic assistance through an anticipated Afghanistan supplemental appropriation. Contributions that support U.S. goals can likely be obtained for reimbursement at cost if we want to hold the line and not include Jordan in the supplemental. END SUMMARY.
Afghanistan Issues ------------------
¶2. (S/NF) Jordan has already made a significant contribution of forces in Afghanistan (ref B), currently numbered at 850 troops, which includes an infantry battalion, a special operations company, and a field hospital. Prince Faisal and Minister Hasan will likely make a number of offers for increased participation in Afghanistan. Specifically, we expect them to offer:
¶3. (S/NF) Training for Afghan Clerics -- Minister Hasan has indicated an interest in offering a one-year training program for Afghan clerics and religious leaders in moderate Islam to counter extremist ideologies. The program would be hosted at Al Albayt University in Mafraq, Jordan, and has been approved by Prince Ghazi bin Muhammed, the King's special advisor on religious affairs. (Note: Prince Ghazi is also the author of the Amman Message on moderate Islam and the Common Word on outreach to Christians. End Note.)
¶4. (S/NF) Police Training -- Prince Faisal and Minister Hasan will offer to train Afghan National Police (ANP) at training facilities in Jordan or by sending Mobile Training Teams (MTT) to Afghanistan.
-- Background: Jordan has established a record of effective training of regional police and para-military forces at the Jordan International Police Training Center (JIPTC). In 2005-2007, the Jordanian Public Security Directorate (PSD) trained over 53,000 Iraqi National Police. Since 2008, Jordan has trained over 3,500 members of the Palestinian Authority's gendarmerie-like National Security Forces (NSF) and Presidential Guard, resulting in partial withdrawal of Israeli security from four key West Bank cities.
¶5. (S/NF) Additional Field Hospital -- Prince Faisal and Minister Hasan will offer to send an additional military field hospital to Afghanistan. Jordan already operates one hospital in Qalat, Afghanistan which has treated over 750,000 patients since 2003. Jordan also maintains field hospitals in Fallujah, Iraq and in Gaza, and will soon open one in Haiti (ref A).
¶6. (S/NF) Additional Ground Forces -- Senior Jordanian military officials have in the past mentioned their interest in making sizeable increases in their contribution of ground forces in Afghanistan, and recently reaffirmed their interest to the U.K. and NATO officials. Prince Faisal may make such an offer in Washington.
-- Background: Feedback from the field indicates that Jordanian forces already deployed have been highly effective at key leader engagement in Afghan villages, forging valuable relationships that give these leaders a promising alternative to Taliban affiliation. At the same time, a Jordanian legal requirement that soldiers deployed overseas must receive approximately 1600 USD per month in combat pay has been pushing the Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) deeper into deficit. The GOJ has repeatedly requested assistance from us to meet this obligation, a request the USG cannot fulfill. CENTCOM has had preliminary discussions with the U.A.E. to explore it as a potential source of donor funding, but so far funds have not been forthcoming.
¶7. (S/NF) Special Operations Training -- Prince Faisal may offer to train Afghan counter-terrorism (CT) or special operations forces (SOF).
-- Background: Jordan has developed strong SOF and CT skills within its security forces and currently has a SOF unit deployed in Afghanistan (TF111). In May 2009 Jordan opened the King Abdullah Special Operations Training Center (KASOTC) as an intended center of excellence for SOF training. Although KASOTC has hosted regional joint exercises, it has yet to host a full-length regional training course.
¶8. (S/NF) Fighter Jets and Helicopters -- In previous meetings, Prince Faisal has offered to send F-16 fighter jets and UH-60 helicopters with pilots to conduct combat missions.
-- Background: Air Force Central Command (AFCENT) Commander LTG Hostage met Prince Faisal in Amman on January 19 and indicated to him that such a contribution would not be helpful at this time. He assessed that Jordanian F-16 and UH-60 pilots do not have sufficient combat flight experience. In addition, the fleet would require point-to-point support from the U.S. for maintenance, repair, and in missions.
Iraq Issues -----------
¶9. (S/NF) Prince Faisal may also raise the following issues related to Iraq:
¶10. (S/NF) Sale of Fighter Jets -- Prince Faisal has previously indicated his interest in selling Jordan's Peace Falcon I (PF-I) F-16 Fighter Jets to Iraq. The sale is intended to make way for an acquisition of fourteen new F-16 jets from European partners with increased avionics capabilities. A recent assessment by the Air Force International Affairs Division indicated that the acquisition, and an accompanying mid-life upgrade to the remainder of its F-16 fleet, would cost Jordan well over $1 billion, including training and maintenance support.
¶11. (S/NF) Training Iraqi Pilots -- As Iraq establishes its Air Force capabilities, Jordan has indicated interest in training Iraqi pilots. In his January 19 meeting LTG Hostage indicated that the U.S. was exploring conduct that training itself.
¶12. (S/NF) Fighter Weapons School -- Jordan plans to establish a center of excellence for fighter pilot training and may seek U.S. assistance with the project. However, the USG already supports such a facility in the region, the Gulf Air War Center in the U.A.E.
Comment -------
¶13. (S/NF) Through their deployments in Afghanistan and their assistance to other countries in the region, Jordan has shown itself to be a willing and capable partner in support of U.S. security goals. Despite the recent suicide bombing in Khost, Afghanistan, the resulting press reporting regarding Jordan's role in Afghanistan, and domestic public pressures on Jordan to end its security cooperation with the U.S., the Jordanians will make significant offers to increase their assistance during the Washington visit. Forefront in their minds, however, is an equally significant reward in the form of economic assistance through an Afghanistan or other supplemental appropriation. Although they would be disappointed not to receive supplemental assistance, the Jordanians would likely accept reimbursement at cost for any additional contributions we do want, especially if we can identify a third-country donor to assist with Jordan's combat pay problem. Beecroft
_________________ Le Prophéte (saw) a dit: Les Hommes Les meilleurs sont ceux qui sont les plus utiles aux autres
winner78 Caporal chef
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Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Sam 29 Jan 2011 - 9:37
Yakuza Administrateur
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Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Sam 19 Fév 2011 - 0:54
que le wikileaks sur les F16 egyptiens?
Citation :
1.(SBU) Description. REF A is the GOE request to procure twenty-four (24) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft to support their national defense mission. The GOE long-term plan is to procure a total of forty-five (45) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft with twenty-four (24) of those being procured at this time and twenty-one (21) additional aircraft being requested in the future when funding permits. Although the aircraft procured will be Block 50 or Block 52 depending upon the engine that the EAF decides to procure, the aircraft will have the software set to comply with Egypt,s non-CISMOA status. This limits the full capability of the aircraft until the EAF is authorized any increased capability in accordance with a signed CISMOA. At that point, the software can be reset to provide the appropriate CISMOA-compliant capability. The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a compact, multi-role fighter aircraft. It is highly maneuverable and has proven itself in air-to-air combat and air-to-surface attack. The F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft provides a high-performance weapon system for the United States and allied nations. The Egyptian Air Force currently operates a fleet of 195 F-16 Block 15/32/40 aircraft. The F-16 Block 50/52 is the latest mass-produced common configuration F-16 aircraft available for procurement and is currently in use by the United States Air Force.
2.(SBU) Reason the purchaser desires the articles or services. The procurement of these aircraft is desired by Egypt for three main reasons: A. These aircraft will help modernize the EAF fighter aircraft fleet. B. These new F-16s will potentially replace an estimated 180 non-flyable MiG-21 airframes and an unspecified number of non-flyable F-7 airframes according to sources within the EAF. C. The procurement will replace 24 EAF F-16s that have been destroyed in mishaps since Egypt began operating the F-16.
3. (SBU) How the articles or services would affect the recipient,s force structure. The EAF originally procured 220 F-16s over the past 26 years, but has lost 25 through attrition. The 24 requested F-16s would backfill 24 of those lost aircraft. The EAF MiG-21 and F-7 fleets require replacement due to their age and diminishing operational readiness. This new aircraft will replace a minimum estimated total of 180 of those aircraft. There will be no change to the existing mission and primary roles of the F-16.
4. (SBU) How the articles or services would contribute to both the U.S. and the recipient,s defense/security goals. The F-16 Block 50/52 will enable the EAF to defend its people, borders, the Suez Canal and the resource of the Nile River from enemy attack. It will offer US-Egyptian interoperability opportunities that are not available in the MiG-21 or F-7. The procurement would revitalize the EAF fighter fleet so that the EAF may focus on moving forward as a US ally through US-based training, joint exercises and toward joint operations with the US and its other allies. The current state of the EAF fighter fleet causes the Egyptian government to pour precious manpower, money, and resources into the constant struggle of keeping their aging fleet of MiG-21s and F-7s flying. The new procurement would enable the EAF to shift personnel, funding and resources from a rapidly diminishing fleet of obsolescence-prone aircraft to a weapon system with a great capability that will be operational when needed.
5.(SBU) Justification for the type and quantity of articles or services requested. The F-16 Block 50/52 is the only logical, cost-effective choice for modernizing the EAF fighter aircraft fleet. The EAF currently operates 195 F-16s and has operated the F-16 with support from the United States for 26 years. The EAF has developed wide-scale in-country F-16-specific maintenance/logistics support and has an in-country F-16 Flying Training Unit where new pilots are trained to fly the F-16. The EAF has a corps of pilots, technicians and engineers who are already familiar with the F-16 at the operational and intermediate levels. The F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft are currently in the U.S. Air Force inventory and long-term sustainability through the U.S. logistics system is a distinct advantage. The EAF has in-country depot capability to repair over 300 different F-16 parts. Most of these parts are compatible with the EAF version F-16 Block 50/52. The EAF has in-country depot-level aircraft modification capability through the F-16 Falcon-UP modification program. This program and capability enables the EAF to significantly increase the service-life of their current F-16 fleet and any subsequent F-16 procurements. The EAF has established in-country partial depot capability to overhaul certain F-16 engine sections and this capability is upgradeable to support the F-16 Block 50/52. Egypt continually upgrades its avionics testing and repair capability to keep pace with the advancing technology in the F-16 aircraft. Egypt uses the US logistics/supply system to complement its in-country F-16 support efforts. Egypt participates in all USAF Technical Coordination Groups so that they receive the latest information available on technical issues and advances related to the F-16.
6.(SBU) Combatant Commander's concurrence to the introduction of a new war-fighting capability to the nation or region. Combatant Commander's concurrence will be provided separately.
7.(SBU) Anticipated reactions of the neighboring nations. The procurement of these additional F-16 aircraft is not expected to influence the regional balance of power or cause negative reactions from any of Egypt's neighbors. The EAF wishes to procure a unique version of the F-16 Block 50/52 that will be capable of firing the medium-range AIM-7 Sparrow radar-guided missiles that are currently in the EAF inventory. The EAF version of the F-16 Block 50/52 will definitely be able to fire the short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder heat-seeking missile and will have a 20mm cannon. The potential exists for the aircraft to be configured with the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) should the US Government decide to release those munitions to Egypt in the future. This new F-16 procurement introduces a limited increase of technology to Egypt, but does not introduce new technology to the region. Several regional allies have recently purchased similar airframes through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. These assets will enhance Egypt,s ability to participate in combined regional training exercises. This procurement would not impact Israel's qualitative military edge.
8.(SBU) Assessment of the nation's ability to account for, safeguard, operate, maintain, and support the articles. The GOE has demonstrated the intent and ability to protect sensitive, classified military technology over an extended period. Egypt signed a General Security of Information Agreement with the US and, as a customer, has purchased and protected the sensitive technology of other U.S. weapon systems. The EAF has an in-country F-16 pilot training school and they develop their corps of F-16 pilots through that school. The EAF has significant depot-level capability that enables them to repair over 300 F-16 parts, modify F-16 aircraft to extend the service life of the aircraft, and overhaul or repair F-16 engine subassemblies within the country of Egypt. The EAF works closely with the US Government for complementary logistics support of their F-16 fleet. Although the EAF has an F-16 engine management program that is lacking as compared the USAF engine management program, the EAF is making good progress with the US engine program offices to improve their overall engine management capability. Egypt has met all previous F-16 security and End Use Monitoring (EUM) requirements.
9.(SBU) Training required either in-country or in the United States and anticipated reactions resulting from the presence of U.S. trainers in country. Specialized training on the F-16 Block 50/52 under this new procurement would be performed in-part by an in-country US military Extended Training Services Support (ETSS) team. Each of the previous 4 EAF F-16 procurement increments was supported by an ETSS team of 10 or more personnel. There is currently an ETSS team assigned to one of the EAF F-16 bases as part of the procurement of the most recent increment of EAF F-16s. ETSS teams have been a part of the Egyptian community for 26 years with only positive impact to the country and region. Also, a team of trainers from the prime contractor and subcontractors would likely be sent to Egypt to augment the ETSS until initial training of the EAF is complete. The ETSS would remain and provide the remaining longer-term support. No required training outside of Egypt related to this procurement is anticipated at this time.
10.(SBU) Possible impact of any in-country U.S. presence that might be required as a result of providing the article. U.S. Government civilian personnel and U.S. contractors are permanently assigned to Egypt to support the current EAF F-16 program. Those US positions have been filled for 26 years. There is an anticipated plus-up of US personnel in-country that would be necessary to support the arrival, bed-down and support of the increased number of F-16s resulting from this procurement. A majority of the plus-up personnel will be on temporary duty status and a small minority of the plus-up personnel will likely be required to remain in Egypt permanently. There is no expected negative impact that would result from these additional Americans being in Egypt. Additionally, US Government teams and US contractor teams routinely travel to Egypt to support the various US-provided weapon systems of the Egyptian military including the current F-16 fleet. There is no expected negative impact that would result from the continued presence of these Americans in Egypt.
11.(SBU) Source of financing and the economic impact of the proposed acquisition. Egypt plans to procure these 24 F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft and all related training, support and infrastructure improvements as a total package utilizing Foreign Military Financing. The Egyptians will only accept the offer for the procurement if the amortization of financing meets their established budgeted payment schedule. In order for the new aircraft to fire AIM-7 Sparrow as requested, a modification of the avionics package is required. This will affect the long range funding of this program and other large procurement programs currently in work. In addition, this system engineering would have to be reversed if the AIM-120 AMRAAM is purchased in the future. Egypt is not planning to use national funds to pay for any portion of this procurement. The economic impact of the proposed acquisition on the US is expected to infuse $2 billion into the US economy over the acquisition period.
12.(SBU) Human rights considerations relevant to the proposed acquisition. None.
13.(SBU) A plan for end-use monitoring for sensitive and advanced warfighting technology and the SAO,s plan for compliance verification. The Office of Military Cooperation (OMC) Egypt has a robust Golden Sentry Program. The Golden Sentry Program representative and Security Assistance Officer (SAO) responsible for the program will coordinate for the review and maintenance of required documentation. All parties will maintain serial number lists of all components within the inventory or transferred and will conduct the mandated inspections as required. This coordination will ensure that historical copies of all EUM inspection results and customer,s physical security and accountability control plans remain on file. The Egyptian military currently has 195 F-16s in country. Egypt has maintained accountability and security of these aircraft without unauthorized loss, theft, or access to date. The GOE has expressed the willingness to meet U.S. guidelines for accountability and security of these new aircraft, and the Office of Military Cooperation will conduct End Use Monitoring of all required components if this request is approved.
14.(SBU) Recommendation whether the USG should approve transfer of the article and justification. The country team supports USG approval of the GOE procurement of twenty-four (24) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft. This procurement will replace aircraft lost to attrition and will replace fighter aircraft that are beyond their useful life. It would also encourage the demilitarization of older aircraft. This procurement will dissuade Egypt from using national funds to buy fighters from another country. It will also increase the percentage of US-built equipment in the Egyptian inventory. The procurement may be seen as encouragement for Egypt to sign a CISMOA as well. Although release of the AIM-120 AMRAAM to Egypt was by no means offered, promised or guaranteed to the GOE, MOD or EAF with this procurement, this procurement would create the possibility for Egypt to seek the AIM-120 should they sign a CISMOA in the future. The AIM-7 Sparrow capability currently requested is an option for this purchase; however AIM-120 capability is far superior and could be added with engineering modifications assuming a CISMOA is in place. We support the sale to the degree that MOD can afford the new equipment and still fund the follow-on support of all current Egyptian military programs. We support this sale if the cost does not jeopardize other important future procurements. The US Government is in a position to build a stronger relationship with the Government of Egypt by enabling the GOE to modernize its fighter aircraft fleet with the US-built and US-supported F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft. This is a coordinated mission position. SCOBEY NNNN End Cable Text
SOURCE
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MAATAWI Modérateur
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Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Sam 9 Avr 2011 - 13:36
Citation :
Haaretz WikiLeaks exclusive / 'Hezbollah expected to launch 100 missiles a day at Tel Aviv'
Israel expects next war against Hezbollah to be much more painful, leaked cables reveal, with 24,000 to 36,000 rockets and missiles expected to be launched at Israel.
Israel expects the next war against Hezbollah will last two months, during which 24,000 to 36,000 rockets and missiles are expected to be launched at Israel − about 6,000 of them aimed at Tel Aviv, Wikileaks documents reveal. Telegrams sent from the U.S. Embassy summing up talks between American and Israeli officials in November 2009 cite a Mossad official as saying Hezbollah is expected to launch 400-600 missiles at Israel a day − 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv, over the course of two months. The talks were held between American and Israeli defense and intelligence officials in Israel, as part of the strategic dialogue between the countries entitled the Joint Political Military Group, which was established in 1983. The American delegation was headed by State Department official Robert Maggi and the Israeli delegation was headed by then-Defense Ministry Director General Pinhas Buchris. This was the group’s fourth meeting. On November 18 the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv sent the first of four telegrams summarizing the talks, which spanned various issues including the Iranian nuclear program, the situation in Iraq and Gaza, Israel-Egypt relations, the peace process with the Palestinians and Israel’s future war with Hezbollah. “The IDF and Israel Defense Intelligence argued that Hezbollah’s ultimate goal during any future conflict is to launch a massive number of missiles and rockets daily into Israeli territory, including those that can reach the Tel Aviv area,” the telegram said. “Defense officials highlighted the continued desire by Hezbollah to avenge the assassination of its former military commander Imad Mughniyah, and pointed to failed attempts to do so in Azerbaijan and Egypt.” The Israelis argued “smuggling [from Syria and Iran to Hezbollah] represents a strategic challenge for Israel ... and is severely limiting its diplomatic options for peace.” The Israelis said that since the Second Lebanon War Hezbollah “increased its quantity of sophisticated arms with improved range and accuracy.” Military Intelligence officers presented estimates of Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon. “Hezbollah possesses over 20,000 rockets, hundreds of 220 mm and 302 mm rockets, several hundred Fajr rockets, hundreds of simple anti-tank (AT) launchers with rockets and missiles, and hundreds of advanced anti-tank wire guided missiles (ATGM), dozens of SA-14, SA-7 and QW-1 anti-aircraft guns, several Ababil unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), an unknown quantity of C-802 coastal missiles and up to thousands of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).” An Israeli officer said “Hezbollah was preparing for a long conflict with Israel in which it hopes to launch a massive number of rockets at Israel per day.” “In the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Tel Aviv was left untouched − Hezbollah will try to change the equation during the next round and disrupt everyday life in Tel Aviv,” the officer is quoted as saying. A Mossad official said “Hezbollah will want to ensure it can launch rockets and missiles to the very last day of the conflict ... Hezbollah will try to launch 400-600 rockets and missiles at Israel per day − 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv ... [and] sustain such launches for at least two months.” This means Israel expects a war that would last up to two months, during which 24,000 to 36,000 rockets and missiles would be launched into its territory, about 6,000 of them aimed at Tel Aviv. An argument erupted between the Israeli and American officials about the American arms supplies to the Lebanese Armed Forces, also known as the Lebanese Army. The Israelis complained about it, saying they could fall into Hezbollah’s hands. The Americans said the aid to the LAF was intended to prevent it from growing closer to Hezbollah and stressed the “U.S. support of the LAF as a counterweight to Hezbollah.” Amos Gilad, director of policy and political-military affairs at the Defense Ministry, completely disagreed with this approach. He said “the Lebanese Army will come to the defense of Hezbollah if attacked by Israel. Thus, a strengthened LAF hurts Israel.” This was not mentioned in the discussions, but at the time foreign media reported that an Israeli spy ring had been captured in Lebanon. The Lebanese government said it had caught dozens of Lebanese nationals − some of them former senior military and intelligence officers − following cooperation between Hezbollah and Lebanese intelligence. The suspects had confessed they had spied for Israel and some of them were sentenced to death.
haaretz.com
_________________ Le Prophéte (saw) a dit: Les Hommes Les meilleurs sont ceux qui sont les plus utiles aux autres
klan General de Brigade
messages : 3864 Inscrit le : 22/05/2010 Localisation : France Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Pourquoi s'étonner ? Les extrémistes sont déjà convaincus de foutre le b*** dans leurs pays pour servir au mieux les intérêts des USA. Ce sont les "militants de base", c'est à dire en fait les innocents, qu'il fallait garder en détention jusqu'à les enrager suffisamment avant de les relâcher dans la nature pour accomplir leurs missions. Pas facile de recruter des candidats prêts à se suicider pour servir les intérêts US. Il faut leur faire perdre raison d'abord...
_________________
Invité Invité
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Jeu 28 Avr 2011 - 23:36
Mais ou est donc passer notre ami Assange ??
MAATAWI Modérateur
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Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Mer 2 Nov 2011 - 13:26
INSIGHT - RUSSIA/EU/CA/Caucasus - Energy politics Email-ID 220936 Date 2010-08-09 03:36:14 From reva.bhalla@stratfor.com To analysts@stratfor.com List-Name analysts@stratfor.com
PUBLICATION: background/analysis ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ambassador-at-large for energy security, Czech Republic and chief of CR's nuclear tender for Temelin SOURCE Reliability : B ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
The level of distrust between Ukraine and Russia is unbelievable. You know it's bad when they are using guys like me to communicate with each other. There is a very, very small number of people who actually know what's going on in the nat gas negotiations -- Putin, Medvedev, head of Naftogaz, Miller of Gazprom, Yanukovich and maybe the FM. By trust, I mean, for example, you, Reva and I have a deal. I sell X amount to you, we settle on an amount to trim from the top and keep for ourselves, clean the books, etc. Now, all of a sudden, I am replaced. You don't the person you're dealing with anymore and if he will uphold his end of the deal. Thoughout the 1990s things worked fine. Over the past few years, though, ppl kept getting replaced and nobody could trust each other. This is how we got to the last cutoff.
Putin's strategy during the last cutoff was the following:
Russia know Ukraine is stealing X amount of gas. Russia will send Z amount of gas promised to Europe plus the X amount of gas Ukraine was stealing. The objective was to portray Ukraine as the villain, while Russia could be seen as the dependable partner. Bulgaria, Slovakia and Serbia were the only ones who be feeling the shortages.
When I met with Putin and Sechin during this cutoff, I was very blunt with them. I told them the strategy doesn't work. We in Czech Republic, Slovakia, etc. will survive without Russian gas. We will process other fuel, it may be dirty, but who cares. We are also getting offers at a third of the price from Qatar and others.
So, Russia doesn't have that leverage that it had in 2006. These moves only encourage the Europeans to find other suppliers. This is a problem for Putin... there are people who saw the flaws of the strategy but were not able to speak up. It backfired.
You know me, I am an atheist. I don't believe when the Bible says to turn the other cheek... I say if someone hits you, hit them twice back. This is about getting even with the Russians. We want Russia to take us seriously.
Russia is very much in control of Ukrainian decision-making. Only a very small number of people are in the know there. The Russians don't need direct ownership of the energy sector to have the influence they're looking for right now. They were very well prepared for making their comeback in Ukraine. It is a well-oiled machine there.
Kyrgyzstan was a message for the Chinese primarily. China's presence in the 'Stans is the big issue right now, and the Russians need to keep China within limits. China brings in money and infrastructure, but when you talk to the regimes of these countries, they don't feel comfortable dealing with the Chinese like they do with the Russians.
THey know the Russians - Russia is the default language, they know they work, etc. The Chinese come in on a completely different scale. These regimes are very paranoid.. if you look at the succession lines of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, they are all daughters. These govts are looking for security, and that is where Russia holds the upper hand over China.
Russia is bankrupt save for the extractive industries. They having the oil, gas, mining, etc., but that is not a developed economy. They are not in good shape and there is serious thought behind the modernization plan. The big threat for Russia right now is not coming from the West... it comes from the East (China) and from the South (Islam.) The Russians are showing some cooperation with US on Iran, but they haven't done anything, and they dont need to. It's a low-risk strategy. They aren't losing anything there.
I don't have faith in Turkey's energy deal with Azerbaijan for Shah Deniz. It is remarkable to what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence. THey are thinking about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a final deal on Shah Deniz II. When I was in Baku recently, they showed me a 3-D topographic map of Armenia, AZ, Nagorno. You can see very clearly that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with Russian backing, it is a flat path to Baku. The Russians told them during the Georgia war that Georgia could just be the first stop... pretty direct threat. The Azerbaijanis are terrified of this. The difference between now and when BTC came online is that the US was actually there back then with a strategy. US is nonexistent in this game right now. Even the Europeans are disconnected. AZ, Georgia, Ukraine don't have others to turn to. All Russia has to do is pay off enough people or make a move in a certain enclave of Georgia to shut down BTC. AZ cannot only turn West... again, it's a matter of survival.
Belarus will cave into Russian demands. Lukashenko knows he has no choice. That's 50 percent of his revenue gone otherwise, and he knows that. He is a nuisance for the Russians, but he isn't getting help form elsewhere. Even the Europeans have reproached him.
The Russians are very paranoid about Europe's energy plans. Sechin keeps asking me what is the secret plan, what are the Europeans plotting, etc. I tell them there is no secret plan. I wish there were one, but there really is not.
The decision on building South Stream won't come until 2013-2014, after Nord Stream is completed. So far, Nord Stream is on track for completion, but it goes against Russia's energy strategy of avoiding transit states. The Russians are not happy with my appointment for the nuclear tender. They think I am anti-Russian. The bid is between Rosatom, Areva and Westinghouse (Source met with Westinghouse day before our mtg). No two companies can enter jointly.. that would be breaking the rules of the tender at this stage. If Rosatom and Westinghouse try to do that for sake of US-Russia cooperation, then Areva would win by default.
Invité Invité
Sujet: Re: Wikileaks,fuites et révélations Dim 4 Mar 2012 - 3:48
Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far Email-ID 1537069 Date 2010-03-11 08:39:14 From emre.dogru@stratfor.com To bhalla@stratfor.com, bayless.parsley@stratfor.com
no worries, Bayless. Gulenist guys loved me and I'm sure they will be happy to cover my wedding expenses. The only problem is that you won't be able to drink alcohol.
Bayless Parsley wrote:
that means it's going to be expensive
Reva Bhalla wrote:
dude im going to plan their wedding ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bayless Parsley" To: "Reva Bhalla" Cc: "emre dogru" Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:43:10 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far
oh and i'm sure she is just thrilled the emre pasha is road trippin' it with some ethnic looking american girl
Reva Bhalla wrote:
haha, the Albanian chick is super cute, btw. Emre Pasha has good taste ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bayless Parsley" To: "Reva Bhalla" , "emre dogru"
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:39:19 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far
one question: can the power of stratfor get emre laid if he ever ditches his albanian chick?
Reva Bhalla wrote:
a little anecdote i forgot to add. while we were waiting for our meeting at the prime minister's building, there was a young guy in the waiting room who was waiting for his boss who was meeting with Erdogan's advisor. the guy used to work for an MP and is in the parliament scene in Ankara. when he found out we were from Stratfor, he got really excited and told us about how he and his friend sent a letter to the parliament's head of information or whatever as a petition for all Turkish MPs to get Stratfor subscriptions. Obviously he's a big fan and this is something we can pursue as an institution deal. (getting the appropriate contact info for this). At the AKP think tank we visited in Ankara today, they also told us clearly 'we know the power of Stratfor'. Everyone here wants to influence us one way or another. Turkey needs a voice in DC. THey're hoping it's us. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Reva Bhalla" To: "analysts" Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:24:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far
Going to sum up a few meetings so far. i will go into more detail later when it's not 230am and not exhausted from traveling 12 hrs traveling between istanbul and ankara. Emre will fill in any other details I've missed. We will be meeting next with two Turkish energy experts (send questions if you have them -- we need good turkey energy sources), CEO of Sabanci group (one of the Istanbul giants), TUSKON business association (Gulenist) and then on the opposite side of the political spectrum, the head of Dogan media, then Isbank (also a bastion for the nationalists and Istanbul giants) For the first part of my trip, Emre and I have been hanging out with hardcore Gulenists. We started at Zaman headquarters (Zaman is main Gulenist newspaper and media voice for AKP, Today's Zaman is the English-language daily). We met with the Editor in Chief of Today's Zaman and the head of Cihan news agency (which runs their major media outlets). Cihan is now the most powerful media outlet in Turkey. It used to be Hurriyet, dominated by the nationalists, but they're under attack (will get to that later). They explicitly represented themselves as part of the 'jamaah', or the 'movement', as they like to call it. The way they represent their agenda is that this is about democratization in Turkey, human rights, world peace, etc. The guy was actually quoting Western liberal philosophers trying to show how much in common they have with them in respect for these democratic values, and this is what's essential for Turkey's candidacy in the EU. The irony, they claim, is that people think because they're Islamist, they're fundamentalist and not modern, whereas the authoritarians (in their view) ie. the military, are the ones who are seen in the West as modern. This is what frustrates them. So, by promoting this peace, love and democracy campaign, they say they are fighting for constitutional reform, business and political pluralism, civilian control over military, judicial reform, etc. That there is no secret agenda. (my note -- what Emre and I noticed is that in all our meetings with Gulenists, they recited almost the same lines verbatim. they're very well rehearsed in selling this model. At the root of this, however, is power. The established elite, ie. the military, Istanbul business giants, etc. are being threatened by an Islamist political vehicle fueled by the Anatolian small-to-med business class.) Both of the sources talked about how they need to raise an Anatolian business class to undermine the Istanbul giants (they essentially articulated our own theory, which was cool.). We discussed the Ergenekon case a lot, which gave them plenty of opportunity to bash the military for being so irresponsible and disrespectful to the civilian government. What struck us most is how they claim they have allies within the military, people high up in rank, who are disaffected with the establishment and are WILLING to provide leaks to the Gulenist newspapers and intelligence services that support these coup allegations. We heard the exact same story the next day at a Gulenist organization that we visited. More likely this is an allusion to their successful penetration of the military (have sent more detailed insight on this previously) We also discussed the Gulen schools that are spreading across the globe, expanding Turkish influence. Of course these are the schools with teh best resources, facilities. Students will learn how to speak Turkish, the national anthem, how to be the 'right kind of Muslim', etc. In essence, it buys them loyalty. We are still working on getting a complete database of Gulenist schools. They claim that have more than 2,000 in 200 countries so far. Today's Zaman editor in chief also talked about his experience at Turkish Daily News, which is now owned by Dogan group (which owns Hurriyet and is under attack now by AKP/Gulen). He said at TDN the tax evasion was so obvious and went into detail about how they did it and how his salary was parceled out to allow them to write off most of it. this story was used by him to claim that they at Zaman didn't start this media war with Hurriyet, it was Hurriyet that started it because they were involved in all this bad business, etc. The next day, Emre and I visited a major Gulenist organization that puts together these massive conferences all over the world to promote their agenda, raise funds, recruits, etc. Their office is in a very expensive part of Istanbul. They've got the best facilities, this beautiful theater system. In short, they've got money. Now you have to ask yourself, where is the money coming from? the head of the organization that met with us and propagandized us kept talking about all these peace love and harmony efforts to spread the Gulen ideas and democratize Turkey, spread Turkey's influence, etc. But their funding comes mainly from co-opting the Anatolian business class. Again we heard about how they have allies within the military 'brave' enough to issue leaks on their coup plots. After getting a very long tour of the entire building, top to bottom, they sat us down for a Gulen propaganda film in their theater. Emre sitting in the middle of the Gulen guy and I. The Gulen guy is so overcome by the speech shown in the video by Fethullah Gulen, that he starts crying. Meanwhile im trying really hard not to laugh. It was an interesting experience. That evening I had dinner with the editor in chief of Hurriyet, way on the other side of the political spectrum. He gave his version of the tax evasion case, said that Zaman and Gulen started the whole thing and that Bulent Kenes (Zaman editor who we met with) was part of the problem, he profiteered from that system. In short, it's very, very tense. The night I met him, he had just found out that Zaman was suing them for running an article by Soner Cagaptay, who Gulenists are trying extremely hard to defame (it's very obvious). This source confirmed what I have heard earlier about Gulen penetration of military and how they win the support of the Anatolian business class by giving them a lucrative place in the supply chain. He gave an example of the Gulen school influence -- he met with the Algerian ambassador - trained in a Gulen school, spoke fluent Turkish, extremely friendly to the Turkish government. A very well-oiled system. Today, Emre and I took a road trip to Ankara. We first visited the USAK think tank, which was opened by Abdullah Gul (the president) in 2009. THey also have a gorgeous office building. The head of the think tank started out by telling us what Turkish 'soft power' looks like. He said that during the Cold War times, Turkey looked at the Arab world in disgust, like they were inferiors. Now Turkey is paying attention to its neighborhood, wants to stabilize,e tc (the Davutoglu line). What was most interesting is when he talked about how Turkey already has plenty to work from in the MIddle East. He said, Syrians, Egyptians, Iraqis, even Iranians -- they're ALL TURKS. He says they look like Turks, they have TUrkish relatives from Ottoman history, they want to be like Turks, they love Turkish lifestyle, etc etc. He said that there is 'no such thing as an Arab' or Arab nationalism under Nasser. They're all Turks and Egypt is not a power to be taken seriously. (if any Arab were in that room, their head would have probably exploded). they're nothing. Israel is also nothing compared to Turkish economic, regional, political, population power. He went on to explain how Turkey can solve everyone's problems, by opening borders, removing visa restrictions and improving trade with Egypt, Syria, Iran, etc. A key part of this strategy is also to benefit the AKP's strategy of raising its own business class --- the Turkish merchants who benefit from increased trade in the Mideast are the Antaolian businessmen, and AKP is making sure of that. This AKP think tank is in all the big Turkish delegations. He said that in their last trip to Syria, Bashar tells them he wants to open the border and wants to democratize (on the latter, yeah freakin right). He also claims that after their meetings, the members of the Syrian business council were practically begging them to stay because they said once the Turks in that delegation left, everything would go back to the same. Overall, we got the impression from several of these meetings that Turkey is extremely focused on the Syria track and increasingly more so on the Egyptian track. They expect and claim these countries welcome the Turks with open arms. They also couldn't stop talkinga bout how Turkish television programs over satellite are spreading os much influence throughout the mideast and shows them how to be modern Turks. Saudi Arabia apparently has banned or is trying to ban these shows. I myself have seen how Turkish soap operas are extremely popular in the mideast. He confirmed our analysis that Russia has no intention of seeing through a Turkey-Armenia deal - it wouldn't make any sense. He says the AKP leadership was so naive to think that the talks would go anywhere. Now it's time to turn back to Azerbaijan and Georgia and fix things with them. AFter all, he says, Azerbaijan doesn't want to become another dependent of Russia's. One other interesting thing he said about the Russian factor in those Armenia talks was that Turkey really expected the US to get more involved. He said Russia of course was an obstacle, we knew that. But, the US could have made concessions to Russia to allow this Armenia deal through. In other words, they expected the US to be part of a grand bargain in which the US would recognize that Turkey-Armenia relationship would bring all kinds of benefits, ie. strengthen an ally in the Caucasus, take care of the genocide issue, etc. Turkey also expected US to pay a price to Russia for this project. Here is where there appears to be a misunderstanding, especially since this Armenia-Turkey deal is likely very low on US priorities when it comes to how to bargain with Russia. We then met Erdogan's chief advisor at the prime minister's building. This guy is also a Gulenist, but not openly so. The Hurriyet people say he is and Emre and i noticed the way he was talking on the phone and using certain phrases marked him as one. We got a lot of the Davutoglu diplomatic line from him (he's a very smooth and articulate guy, as Kamran knows). He said that there needs to be more time in the Iran negotiations and that things only got really serious in the past 6-7 months. US can't expect all this to happen overnight. He claims taht prior to the Iranian Revolution anniversary in February, that Iran actually agreed to the Turkey fuel swap deal. When they took the deal to the US, he says the US was totally unprepared then came back and said they can't do it. Turkey was pissed. They feel that this, in addition to the Armenia issue and everything else, just goes to show how the Obama administration doesn't have strong political leadership (Bush at least fought the armenia resolution) and that the US doesn't understand or appreciate Turkey's role in the region. They feel betrayed, to use his words. He says it's hypocritical for US to get mad if Turkey talks to Russia when everyone applauds US and Russia negotiating. He says the reason Turkey is so active in the east is because they're actually receptive to them there (hint, hint - go tell your government to wake up and appreciate us). He, like the guy at the AKP Usak think tank, talked about how Turkey needs the US as a partner in this region. US just needs to recognize it.