Wikileaks,fuites et révélations

Rappel du premier message :

suite au post d´Aslan..y´aura des degats,l´Allemagne aussi alertée

Citation :

Le monde se prépare à de nouvelles révélations par WikiLeaks, Washington appréhende

(AFP) – Il y a 11 heures

WASHINGTON — Des gouvernements du monde entier se préparaient en ce début de week-end à de nouvelles révélations par WikiLeaks, sous la forme d'un tourbillon de câbles diplomatiques américains potentiellement embarrassants pour les Etats-Unis et leurs partenaires.

L'administration Obama avait annoncé dès mercredi que ses services diplomatiques avaient entrepris de préparer des gouvernements étrangers à la publication prochaine de documents secrets susceptibles de créer des "tensions" avec eux.

Dans un entretien sur CNN qui sera diffusé dimanche dont l'AFP a obtenu la retranscription vendredi, le chef d'état-major interarmées américain, l'amiral Michael Mullen, a estimé que les agissements de WikiLeaks étaient "extrêmement dangereux", notamment pour la sécurité des soldats américains, appelant les responsables du site à renoncer à ces révélations.

De son côté, le porte-parole du département d'Etat Philip Crowley a déclaré que les Etats-Unis se préparaient au "pire scénario". Le département d'Etat avait indiqué plus tôt s'attendre à la publication de documents diplomatiques concernant "un large éventail de dossiers et de pays".

Le porte-parole a spécifié que parmi les pays contactés par la secrétaire d'Etat Hillary Clinton figuraient l'Allemagne, l'Arabie saoudite, les Emirats arabes unis, la Grande-Bretagne, la France, l'Afghanistan.

A Moscou, le quotidien Kommersant a affirmé que les fuites comportaient des appréciations "désagréables" qui pourraient blesser Moscou.

Ces révélations "peuvent provoquer une brouille entre les Etats-Unis et la Russie", tout comme avec la moitié des pays de la planète, écrit le quotidien.

A Rome, le ministre des Affaires étrangères Franco Frattini a été prévenu par Washington que des documents concernaient l'Italie.

Le Canada a indiqué que son ambassade à Washington "s'occupe actuellement de cette question avec le département d'Etat".

A Bagdad, l'ambassadeur des Etats-Unis, James Jeffrey, avait affirmé plus tôt que sa mission était "inquiète" face à des révélations susceptibles de saper "des discussions de confiance".

Le site spécialisé dans la révélation de documents confidentiels a promis lundi de mettre en ligne sept fois plus de documents confidentiels que les 400.000 récemment publiés sur la guerre en Irak.

Les premières fuites de WikiLeaks, en juillet sur l'Afghanistan, contenaient peu d'importantes révélations, et celles émanant d'Irak se concentraient en majorité sur des exactions commises entre différentes factions irakiennes.

Washington pourrait être plus embarrassé par la divulgation de documents rédigés par ses diplomates, en particulier s'ils mettent en cause des partenaires étrangers des Etats-Unis.

Selon le ministère finlandais des Affaires étrangères, l'ambassade américaine dans ce pays pense que cette publication allait être "la plus grave".

Selon un haut responsable israélien, Israël, dont Washington est le plus important allié, a été informé que ces fuites de câbles diplomatiques pourraient porter sur des rapports confidentiels adressés par l'ambassade américaine à des responsables israéliens.

A Ankara, un diplomate turc de haut rang a indiqué que la Turquie avait également été mise au courant.

Selon des informations de presse, les nouvelles révélations porteraient notamment sur une aide de la Turquie aux militants d'Al-Qaïda en Irak et un soutien des Etats-Unis aux rebelles kurdes du Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK), réfugiés en Irak.

Le ministre turc des Affaires étrangères, Ahmet Davutoglu, a ensuite jugé qu'il serait "hors de question" de tolérer des actes terroristes "ayant la Turquie pour origine et visant un pays voisin". Il a aussi insisté sur "la coopération étroite" entre Washington et Ankara face au PKK.

Des responsables en Grande-Bretagne, Norvège et Danemark ont aussi indiqué que leurs pays avaient été informés par les Etats-Unis.

Renard-du-desert a écrit:

Plus de deux semaines que ce topic n'as pas été actualiser. Et comme vous l'avez signaler un peu plus au dessus la presse n'en parle plus comme avant
Quelqu'un pour nous expliquer ce refroidissement soudain?

Yakuza a écrit:

les rapports font plus rappeler a des journaux de boulevard qu´a des secrets serieux.

Citation :

De nouvelles données bancaires seront livrées à Wikileaks/Presse
dimanche 16 janvier 2011 17h05

ZÜRICH, 16 janvier (Reuters) - Un ancien banquier suisse, qui a déjà publié via le site Wikileaks des documents bancaires internes, a promis de transmettre de nouvelles données concernant environ 2.000 détenteurs de comptes bancaires à l'étranger, rapporte un journal allemand.

Rudolf Elmer, renvoyé en 2002 du groupe Julius Baer (BAER.VX: Cotation) et jugé mercredi en Suisse pour violation du secret bancaire, transmettra de nouvelles informations à Wikileaks lors d'une conférence de presse à Londres, rapporte dimanche Der Sonntag.

Rudolf Elmer a déclaré au journal suisse qu'il transmettrait deux disques compacts contenant les noms et les détails des comptes d'environ 2.000 clients, qui ont placé de l'argent sur des comptes à l'étranger.

Il a précisé que parmi ces clients figurent des personnalités de premier plan du monde des affaires, des artistes, et environ une quarantaine d'hommes politiques. Ces données impliquent notamment des multimilliardaires, des groupes internationaux et des fonds spéculatifs de plusieurs pays, dont les Etats-Unis, l'Allemagne et la Grande-Bretagne.

"Ces documents montrent qu'ils se réfugient derrière le secret bancaire, probablement pour éviter les taxes", a-t-il déclaré au journal.

Ces informations proviennent d'au moins trois institutions financières, parmi lesquelles Julius Baer, a-t-il ajouté, et concernent la période de 1990 à 2009.

Julius Baer n'était pas joignable dans l'immédiat pour commenter ces informations.

Rudolf Elmer précise toutefois que ces données ne devraient probablement pas être publiées dans l'immédiat sur le site.

L'ancien banquier avait déjà transmis en 2007 des informations concernant huit clients aux autorités américaines.

Julius Baer a nié les allégations de Rudolf Elmer, réfutant toute aide à la fraude fiscale, et a accusé ce dernier de mener une campagne de dénigrement contre la banque et contre certains clients après son renvoi.

(Emma Thomasson, Catherine Monin pour le service français, édité par )

source:
reuters France

Citation :

VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRB #1238/01 2131222
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7072
INFO RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN IMMEDIATE 0063
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0709
RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY PRIORITY 0076
RUEHFN/AMEMBASSY FREETOWN PRIORITY 0021
RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA PRIORITY 0552
RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA PRIORITY 3276C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 001238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PREL KPKO IC MO
SUBJECT: MOROCCAN TROOPS IN COTE D'IVOIRE: INVESTIGATION OF
MOROCCAN PEACEKEEPERS ON SEX ABUSE CHARGES

REF: STATE 102800

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas Riley for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

¶1. (C) In response to the points conveyed reftel, MFA Chief
of International Organizations Section Nasser Bourita told us
on July 26 that the GOM takes the accusations of sexual
misconduct against its troops in Ivory Coast seriously, and
is sending a high level military delegation to join the UN
inquiry. He feels, however, that the GOM troops are
scapegoats for larger problems surrounding the discipline of
UN peacekeepers in Africa.

¶2. (C) Polcouns and poloff conveyed the USG's concern
regarding the recent allegations levied against the Moroccan
United Nations Operations in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI) contingent
and urged the GOM to conduct a full and fair investigation.
End Summary.

-------------------------------
GOM CONCERNED AND INVESTIGATING
-------------------------------

¶2. (C) Bourita said the GOM takes these charges seriously
and planned on sending a high level military delegation to
serve as part of the UN inquest team in Cote d'Ivoire on July
¶30. The GOM will take decisive action to punish any
individuals against whom accusations are proven. The king
stressed military ethics when he ascended to the throne and
expects breaches by his forces to be quickly, vigorously and
transparently investigated at home and abroad.

---------------------------------------------
TROOPS SCAPEGOATS FOR LARGER UN DEFICIENCIES?
---------------------------------------------

¶3. (C) Bourita said, however, the GOM believes the UN is
scapegoating the Moroccan UNOCI troops to show new resolve in
the wake of damning reports of smuggling and rape against its
peacekeepers in Congo. He protested the sanctions levied
against the Moroccan troops now in Cote d'Ivoire stressing
that they arrived little over a month ago, while the
incidents for which they are being punished occurred over a
year ago. When reports of malfeasance first surfaced in
2005, the GOM removed its troop commander, repatriated him
for disciplinary action, and has cooperated with the UN
investigation ever since. Collective punishment for the as
yet unproven actions of individuals was unfair. "How can the
entire battalion be punished," he asked, "when the alleged
incidents took place in an area where only 250 Moroccan
troops were stationed?" He further argued that GOM troops
served with NATO in Kosovo and received no complaints.
Comment: He did not refer to problems Moroccan troops may
have had in Congo. End Comment.

------------------------------
Peacekeeping, Politics and PXs
------------------------------

¶4. (C) Bourita felt that the GOM troops are caught in a
political crossfire between Cote d'Ivoire's President Gbagbo
and some UN members, who oppose UNOCI and its French
leadership, and are seeking opportunities to discredit the
mission; and Cote d'Ivoire Prime Minister Soro, who supports
UNOCI. As a counter weight to accusations, he pointed to
press statements by Soro, who led rebels in the area now
under Moroccan supervision, lauding the GOM's troops. He
also mentioned a signed statement sent by civilians in the
Moroccan zone to the UNOCI Force Commander stating that the
GOM's troops had shown "irreproachable behavior." Bourita
expanded the scope of his complaint saying that there are
larger structural issues regarding UN peacekeeping command
and control in Africa that contribute to breakdowns in
discipline and degradation in troop effectiveness. Key
issues he focused on were:

-units are located far from their commanders with poor lines
of communication and little supervision;

-the UN has no, or insufficient, morale, welfare and supply
programs, which forces troops to look for incidentals and

entertainment in the areas in which they are posted,
increasing the opportunity for unsavory incidents to occur;

-six-month operational rotations (as opposed to one to two
month cycles for European troops) with frequent end-of-tour
extensions that lead to disgruntlement and breaches in
discipline.

-------
Comment
-------

¶5. (C) We will continue to urge a strong response to the
case as we track the Moroccan side of the investigation.
Bourita left the impression that the GOM will, in fact,
conduct a rigorous inquiry with UNOCI in Cote d'Ivoire. It
remains to be seen what type of punishment will be meted out
to troops against whom allegations are proven. End Comment.




*****************************************
Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website;
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/rabat
*****************************************

RILEY

Citation :

ويكيليكس الى كشف حسابات سرية لمسؤولين عرب


لندن 'القدس العربي': قالت تقارير اعلامية ان موقع ويكيليكس يستعد لنشر تفاصيل حسابات سرية لمسؤولين ورجال اعمال عرب في عدد من المصارف الغربية. واضافت ان الحسابات قد تسبب احراجا واسعا لعدد من الزعماء العرب واقاربهم.
واشارت الى ان الرئيس التونسي المخلوع يملك حسابات تضم نحو خمسة مليارات دولار، بينما تتعدى ثروات زعماء اخرين اضعاف ذلك.
يذكر ان جوليان اسانج كان اعلن عن وجود كثير من الوثائق التي تكشف مخالفات بنكية خطيرة، بالاضافة الى حسابات سرية لمسؤولين ورجال اعمال كبار.

http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=da...\19z49.htm

)

Citation :

Wikileaks d'exposer des comptes secrets des fonctionnaires arabes


selon les médias sur le site Wikileaks et se prépare à publier les détails des comptes secrets des fonctionnaires et hommes d'affaires Arabes dans un certain nombre de banques occidentales. Elle a ajouté que les comptes peuvent causer de l'embarras et l'échelle pour un certain nombre de dirigeants arabes et de leurs proches.
Elle a noté que le président tunisien déchu ont des comptes de quelque cinq milliards de dollars, tandis que la richesse d'autres dirigeants que de l'affaiblir.
Le Asanj Julian avait annoncé l'existence de nombreux documents qui révèlent des violations graves de la banque, en plus de comptes secrets des fonctionnaires et des chefs d'entreprise.

Citation :

Wikileaks: Jordan offered increased support in Afghanistan in exchange for econ aid

AMMONNEWS – A secret cable sent by U.S. Ambassador in Amman, Stephen Beecroft, to Washington earlier last year revealed that Jordanian government and military officials offered Washington a bundle of support measures in Afghanistan, including increasing the number of Jordanian troops there and sending fighter jets to participate in special missions.

In the classified cable, dated January 22, 2010 entitled “Preview of Afghanistan Support Offer in Upcoming Washington Meetings,” the Ambassador revealed that an upcoming trip by Jordan’s top military advisor LTG Prince Faisal Bin Al Hussein and Minister of Planning Jafar Hassan to Washington is expected to witness significant Jordanian offers in military support in Afghanistan in exchange for additional economic assistance.

According to the cable, Jordan was expected to offer support in Afghanistan in the fields of training for Afghan clerics, Police Training, deploying an additional field hospital, deploying additional ground forces, and special operations training for the Afghans and sending fighter jets and helicopters with pilots to conduct combat missions.

Jordan also offered a number of measures in Iraq, according to the cable, to include sale of fighter jets, training of Iraqi fighter pilots, and establishing a Fighter Weapons School.

The cable however noted that despite increased domestic pressures on Jordan to end its military cooperation with the United States, especially following the Khost suicide bombing in December 2009, yet “the Jordanians will make significant offers to increase their assistance during the Washington visit.”

The cable also stressed that Jordanian officials were concerned with economic assistance in exchange for increased military support in Afghanistan.


Below is the full text of the cable:
____________________________________________________

VZCZCXRO5344
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ZNY SSSSS ZZH
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000219

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: PREL PINS MASS KISL JO AF
SUBJECT: JORDAN: PREVIEW OF AFGHANISTAN SUPPORT OFFER IN
UPCOMING WASHINGTON MEETINGS

REF: A. AMMAN 0200
¶B. AMMAN 0091

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Jordan's top military advisor and brother of the King, Lieutenant General (LTG) Prince Faisal bin Al Hussein, and Minister of Planning Jafar Hassan will travel to Washington during the week of January 25. Their itineraries include meetings with senior U.S. officials in the Department of Defense, the Air Force, the Department of
StaQrQQ^,ON2}g5Congress. In the meetings, the Jordanians are expected to offer significant increases to Jordan's security support in Afghanistan in exchange for additional economic assistance through an anticipated Afghanistan supplemental appropriation. Contributions that support U.S. goals can likely be obtained for reimbursement at cost if we want to hold the line and not include Jordan in the supplemental. END SUMMARY.

Afghanistan Issues
------------------

¶2. (S/NF) Jordan has already made a significant contribution of forces in Afghanistan (ref B), currently numbered at 850 troops, which includes an infantry battalion, a special operations company, and a field hospital. Prince Faisal and Minister Hasan will likely make a number of offers for increased participation in Afghanistan. Specifically, we expect them to offer:

¶3. (S/NF) Training for Afghan Clerics -- Minister Hasan has indicated an interest in offering a one-year training program for Afghan clerics and religious leaders in moderate Islam to counter extremist ideologies. The program would be hosted at Al Albayt University in Mafraq, Jordan, and has been approved by Prince Ghazi bin Muhammed, the King's special advisor on religious affairs. (Note: Prince Ghazi is also the author of the Amman Message on moderate Islam and the Common Word on outreach to Christians. End Note.)

¶4. (S/NF) Police Training -- Prince Faisal and Minister Hasan will offer to train Afghan National Police (ANP) at training facilities in Jordan or by sending Mobile Training Teams (MTT) to Afghanistan.

-- Background: Jordan has established a record of effective training of regional police and para-military forces at the Jordan International Police Training Center (JIPTC). In
2005-2007, the Jordanian Public Security Directorate (PSD) trained over 53,000 Iraqi National Police. Since 2008, Jordan has trained over 3,500 members of the Palestinian Authority's gendarmerie-like National Security Forces (NSF) and Presidential Guard, resulting in partial withdrawal of Israeli security from four key West Bank cities.

¶5. (S/NF) Additional Field Hospital -- Prince Faisal and Minister Hasan will offer to send an additional military field hospital to Afghanistan. Jordan already operates one hospital in Qalat, Afghanistan which has treated over 750,000 patients since 2003. Jordan also maintains field hospitals in Fallujah, Iraq and in Gaza, and will soon open one in
Haiti (ref A).

¶6. (S/NF) Additional Ground Forces -- Senior Jordanian military officials have in the past mentioned their interest in making sizeable increases in their contribution of ground forces in Afghanistan, and recently reaffirmed their interest to the U.K. and NATO officials. Prince Faisal may make such an offer in Washington.

-- Background: Feedback from the field indicates that Jordanian forces already deployed have been highly effective at key leader engagement in Afghan villages, forging valuable relationships that give these leaders a promising alternative to Taliban affiliation. At the same time, a Jordanian legal requirement that soldiers deployed overseas must receive approximately 1600 USD per month in combat pay has been pushing the Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) deeper into deficit. The GOJ has repeatedly requested assistance from us to meet this obligation, a request the USG cannot fulfill. CENTCOM has had preliminary discussions with the U.A.E. to explore it as a potential source of donor funding, but so far funds have not been forthcoming.

¶7. (S/NF) Special Operations Training -- Prince Faisal may offer to train Afghan counter-terrorism (CT) or special operations forces (SOF).

-- Background: Jordan has developed strong SOF and CT skills within its security forces and currently has a SOF unit deployed in Afghanistan (TF111). In May 2009 Jordan opened the King Abdullah Special Operations Training Center (KASOTC) as an intended center of excellence for SOF training. Although KASOTC has hosted regional joint exercises, it has yet to host a full-length regional training course.

¶8. (S/NF) Fighter Jets and Helicopters -- In previous meetings, Prince Faisal has offered to send F-16 fighter jets and UH-60 helicopters with pilots to conduct combat missions.

-- Background: Air Force Central Command (AFCENT) Commander LTG Hostage met Prince Faisal in Amman on January 19 and indicated to him that such a contribution would not be helpful at this time. He assessed that Jordanian F-16 and UH-60 pilots do not have sufficient combat flight experience. In addition, the fleet would require point-to-point support from the U.S. for maintenance, repair, and in missions.

Iraq Issues
-----------

¶9. (S/NF) Prince Faisal may also raise the following issues related to Iraq:

¶10. (S/NF) Sale of Fighter Jets -- Prince Faisal has previously indicated his interest in selling Jordan's Peace Falcon I (PF-I) F-16 Fighter Jets to Iraq. The sale is intended to make way for an acquisition of fourteen new F-16 jets from European partners with increased avionics capabilities. A recent assessment by the Air Force International Affairs Division indicated that the acquisition, and an accompanying mid-life upgrade to the remainder of its F-16 fleet, would cost Jordan well over $1 billion, including training and maintenance support.

¶11. (S/NF) Training Iraqi Pilots -- As Iraq establishes its Air Force capabilities, Jordan has indicated interest in training Iraqi pilots. In his January 19 meeting LTG Hostage indicated that the U.S. was exploring conduct that training itself.

¶12. (S/NF) Fighter Weapons School -- Jordan plans to establish a center of excellence for fighter pilot training and may seek U.S. assistance with the project. However, the
USG already supports such a facility in the region, the Gulf Air War Center in the U.A.E.

Comment
-------

¶13. (S/NF) Through their deployments in Afghanistan and their assistance to other countries in the region, Jordan has shown itself to be a willing and capable partner in support of U.S. security goals. Despite the recent suicide bombing in Khost, Afghanistan, the resulting press reporting regarding Jordan's role in Afghanistan, and domestic public pressures on Jordan to end its security cooperation with the U.S., the Jordanians will make significant offers to increase their assistance during the Washington visit. Forefront in their minds, however, is an equally significant reward in the form of economic assistance through an Afghanistan or other supplemental appropriation. Although they would be disappointed not to receive supplemental assistance, the Jordanians would likely accept reimbursement at cost for any additional contributions we do want, especially if we can identify a third-country donor to assist with Jordan's combat pay problem.
Beecroft

http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleNO=11387

que le wikileaks sur les F16 egyptiens?

Citation :

1.(SBU) Description. REF A is the GOE request to procure twenty-four (24) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft to support their national defense mission. The GOE long-term plan is to procure a total of forty-five (45) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft with twenty-four (24) of those being procured at this time and twenty-one (21) additional aircraft being requested in the future when funding permits. Although the aircraft procured will be Block 50 or Block 52 depending upon the engine that the EAF decides to procure, the aircraft will have the software set to comply with Egypt,s non-CISMOA status. This limits the full capability of the aircraft until the EAF is authorized any increased capability in accordance with a signed CISMOA. At that point, the software can be reset to provide the appropriate CISMOA-compliant capability. The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a compact, multi-role fighter aircraft. It is highly maneuverable and has proven itself in air-to-air combat and air-to-surface attack. The F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft provides a high-performance weapon system for the United States and allied nations. The Egyptian Air Force currently operates a fleet of 195 F-16 Block 15/32/40 aircraft. The F-16 Block 50/52 is the latest mass-produced common configuration F-16 aircraft available for procurement and is currently in use by the United States Air Force.

2.(SBU) Reason the purchaser desires the articles or services. The procurement of these aircraft is desired by Egypt for three main reasons: A. These aircraft will help modernize the EAF fighter aircraft fleet. B. These new F-16s will potentially replace an estimated 180 non-flyable MiG-21 airframes and an unspecified number of non-flyable F-7 airframes according to sources within the EAF. C. The procurement will replace 24 EAF F-16s that have been destroyed in mishaps since Egypt began operating the F-16.

3. (SBU) How the articles or services would affect the recipient,s force structure. The EAF originally procured 220 F-16s over the past 26 years, but has lost 25 through attrition. The 24 requested F-16s would backfill 24 of those lost aircraft. The EAF MiG-21 and F-7 fleets require replacement due to their age and diminishing operational readiness. This new aircraft will replace a minimum estimated total of 180 of those aircraft. There will be no change to the existing mission and primary roles of the F-16.

4. (SBU) How the articles or services would contribute to both the U.S. and the recipient,s defense/security goals. The F-16 Block 50/52 will enable the EAF to defend its people, borders, the Suez Canal and the resource of the Nile River from enemy attack. It will offer US-Egyptian interoperability opportunities that are not available in the MiG-21 or F-7. The procurement would revitalize the EAF fighter fleet so that the EAF may focus on moving forward as a US ally through US-based training, joint exercises and toward joint operations with the US and its other allies. The current state of the EAF fighter fleet causes the Egyptian government to pour precious manpower, money, and resources into the constant struggle of keeping their aging fleet of MiG-21s and F-7s flying. The new procurement would enable the EAF to shift personnel, funding and resources from a rapidly diminishing fleet of obsolescence-prone aircraft to a weapon system with a great capability that will be operational when needed.

5.(SBU) Justification for the type and quantity of articles or services requested. The F-16 Block 50/52 is the only logical, cost-effective choice for modernizing the EAF fighter aircraft fleet. The EAF currently operates 195 F-16s and has operated the F-16 with support from the United States for 26 years. The EAF has developed wide-scale in-country F-16-specific maintenance/logistics support and has an in-country F-16 Flying Training Unit where new pilots are trained to fly the F-16. The EAF has a corps of pilots, technicians and engineers who are already familiar with the F-16 at the operational and intermediate levels. The F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft are currently in the U.S. Air Force inventory and long-term sustainability through the U.S. logistics system is a distinct advantage. The EAF has in-country depot capability to repair over 300 different F-16 parts. Most of these parts are compatible with the EAF version F-16 Block 50/52. The EAF has in-country depot-level aircraft modification capability through the F-16 Falcon-UP modification program. This program and capability enables the EAF to significantly increase the service-life of their current F-16 fleet and any subsequent F-16 procurements. The EAF has established in-country partial depot capability to overhaul certain F-16 engine sections and this capability is upgradeable to support the F-16 Block 50/52. Egypt continually upgrades its avionics testing and repair capability to keep pace with the advancing technology in the F-16 aircraft. Egypt uses the US logistics/supply system to complement its in-country F-16 support efforts. Egypt participates in all USAF Technical Coordination Groups so that they receive the latest information available on technical issues and advances related to the F-16.

6.(SBU) Combatant Commander's concurrence to the introduction of a new war-fighting capability to the nation or region. Combatant Commander's concurrence will be provided separately.

7.(SBU) Anticipated reactions of the neighboring nations. The procurement of these additional F-16 aircraft is not expected to influence the regional balance of power or cause negative reactions from any of Egypt's neighbors. The EAF wishes to procure a unique version of the F-16 Block 50/52 that will be capable of firing the medium-range AIM-7 Sparrow radar-guided missiles that are currently in the EAF inventory. The EAF version of the F-16 Block 50/52 will definitely be able to fire the short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder heat-seeking missile and will have a 20mm cannon. The potential exists for the aircraft to be configured with the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) should the US Government decide to release those munitions to Egypt in the future. This new F-16 procurement introduces a limited increase of technology to Egypt, but does not introduce new technology to the region. Several regional allies have recently purchased similar airframes through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. These assets will enhance Egypt,s ability to participate in combined regional training exercises. This procurement would not impact Israel's qualitative military edge.

8.(SBU) Assessment of the nation's ability to account for, safeguard, operate, maintain, and support the articles. The GOE has demonstrated the intent and ability to protect sensitive, classified military technology over an extended period. Egypt signed a General Security of Information Agreement with the US and, as a customer, has purchased and protected the sensitive technology of other U.S. weapon systems. The EAF has an in-country F-16 pilot training school and they develop their corps of F-16 pilots through that school. The EAF has significant depot-level capability that enables them to repair over 300 F-16 parts, modify F-16 aircraft to extend the service life of the aircraft, and overhaul or repair F-16 engine subassemblies within the country of Egypt. The EAF works closely with the US Government for complementary logistics support of their F-16 fleet. Although the EAF has an F-16 engine management program that is lacking as compared the USAF engine management program, the EAF is making good progress with the US engine program offices to improve their overall engine management capability. Egypt has met all previous F-16 security and End Use Monitoring (EUM) requirements.

9.(SBU) Training required either in-country or in the United States and anticipated reactions resulting from the presence of U.S. trainers in country. Specialized training on the F-16 Block 50/52 under this new procurement would be performed in-part by an in-country US military Extended Training Services Support (ETSS) team. Each of the previous 4 EAF F-16 procurement increments was supported by an ETSS team of 10 or more personnel. There is currently an ETSS team assigned to one of the EAF F-16 bases as part of the procurement of the most recent increment of EAF F-16s. ETSS teams have been a part of the Egyptian community for 26 years with only positive impact to the country and region. Also, a team of trainers from the prime contractor and subcontractors would likely be sent to Egypt to augment the ETSS until initial training of the EAF is complete. The ETSS would remain and provide the remaining longer-term support. No required training outside of Egypt related to this procurement is anticipated at this time.

10.(SBU) Possible impact of any in-country U.S. presence that might be required as a result of providing the article. U.S. Government civilian personnel and U.S. contractors are permanently assigned to Egypt to support the current EAF F-16 program. Those US positions have been filled for 26 years. There is an anticipated plus-up of US personnel in-country that would be necessary to support the arrival, bed-down and support of the increased number of F-16s resulting from this procurement. A majority of the plus-up personnel will be on temporary duty status and a small minority of the plus-up personnel will likely be required to remain in Egypt permanently. There is no expected negative impact that would result from these additional Americans being in Egypt. Additionally, US Government teams and US contractor teams routinely travel to Egypt to support the various US-provided weapon systems of the Egyptian military including the current F-16 fleet. There is no expected negative impact that would result from the continued presence of these Americans in Egypt.

11.(SBU) Source of financing and the economic impact of the proposed acquisition. Egypt plans to procure these 24 F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft and all related training, support and infrastructure improvements as a total package utilizing Foreign Military Financing. The Egyptians will only accept the offer for the procurement if the amortization of financing meets their established budgeted payment schedule. In order for the new aircraft to fire AIM-7 Sparrow as requested, a modification of the avionics package is required. This will affect the long range funding of this program and other large procurement programs currently in work. In addition, this system engineering would have to be reversed if the AIM-120 AMRAAM is purchased in the future. Egypt is not planning to use national funds to pay for any portion of this procurement. The economic impact of the proposed acquisition on the US is expected to infuse $2 billion into the US economy over the acquisition period.

12.(SBU) Human rights considerations relevant to the proposed acquisition. None.

13.(SBU) A plan for end-use monitoring for sensitive and advanced warfighting technology and the SAO,s plan for compliance verification. The Office of Military Cooperation (OMC) Egypt has a robust Golden Sentry Program. The Golden Sentry Program representative and Security Assistance Officer (SAO) responsible for the program will coordinate for the review and maintenance of required documentation. All parties will maintain serial number lists of all components within the inventory or transferred and will conduct the mandated inspections as required. This coordination will ensure that historical copies of all EUM inspection results and customer,s physical security and accountability control plans remain on file. The Egyptian military currently has 195 F-16s in country. Egypt has maintained accountability and security of these aircraft without unauthorized loss, theft, or access to date. The GOE has expressed the willingness to meet U.S. guidelines for accountability and security of these new aircraft, and the Office of Military Cooperation will conduct End Use Monitoring of all required components if this request is approved.

14.(SBU) Recommendation whether the USG should approve transfer of the article and justification. The country team supports USG approval of the GOE procurement of twenty-four (24) F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft. This procurement will replace aircraft lost to attrition and will replace fighter aircraft that are beyond their useful life. It would also encourage the demilitarization of older aircraft. This procurement will dissuade Egypt from using national funds to buy fighters from another country. It will also increase the percentage of US-built equipment in the Egyptian inventory. The procurement may be seen as encouragement for Egypt to sign a CISMOA as well. Although release of the AIM-120 AMRAAM to Egypt was by no means offered, promised or guaranteed to the GOE, MOD or EAF with this procurement, this procurement would create the possibility for Egypt to seek the AIM-120 should they sign a CISMOA in the future. The AIM-7 Sparrow capability currently requested is an option for this purchase; however AIM-120 capability is far superior and could be added with engineering modifications assuming a CISMOA is in place. We support the sale to the degree that MOD can afford the new equipment and still fund the follow-on support of all current Egyptian military programs. We support this sale if the cost does not jeopardize other important future procurements. The US Government is in a position to build a stronger relationship with the Government of Egypt by enabling the GOE to modernize its fighter aircraft fleet with the US-built and US-supported F-16 Block 50/52 aircraft. This is a coordinated mission position. SCOBEY NNNN End Cable Text

SOURCE

Citation :

Haaretz WikiLeaks exclusive / 'Hezbollah expected to launch 100 missiles a day at Tel Aviv'


Israel expects next war against Hezbollah to be much more painful, leaked cables reveal, with 24,000 to 36,000 rockets and missiles expected to be launched at Israel.










Israel expects the next war against Hezbollah will last two months, during which 24,000 to 36,000 rockets and missiles are expected to be launched at Israel − about 6,000 of them aimed at Tel Aviv, Wikileaks documents reveal.
Telegrams sent from the U.S. Embassy summing up talks between American and Israeli officials in November 2009 cite a Mossad official as saying Hezbollah is expected to launch 400-600 missiles at Israel a day − 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv, over the course of two months.
The talks were held between American and Israeli defense and intelligence officials in Israel, as part of the strategic dialogue between the countries entitled the Joint Political Military Group, which was established in 1983. The American delegation was headed by State Department official Robert Maggi and the Israeli delegation was headed by then-Defense Ministry Director General Pinhas Buchris.
This was the group’s fourth meeting. On November 18 the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv sent the first of four telegrams summarizing the talks, which spanned various issues including the Iranian nuclear program, the situation in Iraq and Gaza, Israel-Egypt relations, the peace process with the Palestinians and Israel’s future war with Hezbollah.
“The IDF and Israel Defense Intelligence argued that Hezbollah’s ultimate goal during any future conflict is to launch a massive number of missiles and rockets daily into Israeli territory, including those that can reach the Tel Aviv area,” the telegram said.
“Defense officials highlighted the continued desire by Hezbollah to avenge the assassination of its former military commander Imad Mughniyah, and pointed to failed attempts to do so in Azerbaijan and Egypt.”
The Israelis argued “smuggling [from Syria and Iran to Hezbollah] represents a strategic challenge for Israel ... and is severely limiting its diplomatic options for peace.”
The Israelis said that since the Second Lebanon War Hezbollah “increased its quantity of sophisticated arms with improved range and accuracy.”
Military Intelligence officers presented estimates of Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon. “Hezbollah possesses over 20,000 rockets, hundreds of 220 mm and 302 mm rockets, several hundred Fajr rockets, hundreds of simple anti-tank ‏(AT‏) launchers with rockets and missiles, and hundreds of advanced anti-tank wire guided missiles ‏(ATGM‏), dozens of SA-14, SA-7 and QW-1 anti-aircraft guns, several Ababil unmanned aerial vehicles ‏(UAVs‏), an unknown quantity of C-802 coastal missiles and up to thousands of improvised explosive devices ‏(IEDs‏).”
An Israeli officer said “Hezbollah was preparing for a long conflict with Israel in which it hopes to launch a massive number of rockets at Israel per day.”
“In the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Tel Aviv was left untouched − Hezbollah will try to change the equation during the next round and disrupt everyday life in Tel Aviv,” the officer is quoted as saying.
A Mossad official said “Hezbollah will want to ensure it can launch rockets and missiles to the very last day of the conflict ... Hezbollah will try to launch 400-600 rockets and missiles at Israel per day − 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv ... [and] sustain such launches for at least two months.”
This means Israel expects a war that would last up to two months, during which 24,000 to 36,000 rockets and missiles would be launched into its territory, about 6,000 of them aimed at Tel Aviv.
An argument erupted between the Israeli and American officials about the American arms supplies to the Lebanese Armed Forces, also known as the Lebanese Army. The Israelis complained about it, saying they could fall into Hezbollah’s hands. The Americans said the aid to the LAF was intended to prevent it from growing closer to Hezbollah and stressed the “U.S. support of the LAF as a counterweight to Hezbollah.”
Amos Gilad, director of policy and political-military affairs at the Defense Ministry, completely disagreed with this approach. He said “the Lebanese Army will come to the defense of Hezbollah if attacked by Israel. Thus, a strengthened LAF hurts Israel.”
This was not mentioned in the discussions, but at the time foreign media reported that an Israeli spy ring had been captured in Lebanon. The Lebanese government said it had caught dozens of Lebanese nationals − some of them former senior military and intelligence officers − following cooperation between Hezbollah and Lebanese intelligence. The suspects had confessed they had spied for Israel and some of them were sentenced to death.

haaretz.com

Citation :

Guantanamo : des détenus à haut risque auraient été...



euronewsfr

Citation :

Classified Files Offer New Insights Into Detainees

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/25/world/guantanamo-files-lives-in-an-american-limbo.html?_r=1&hp

Le New York Times

Pourquoi s'étonner ? Les extrémistes sont déjà convaincus de foutre le b*** dans leurs pays pour servir au mieux les intérêts des USA. Ce sont les "militants de base", c'est à dire en fait les innocents, qu'il fallait garder en détention jusqu'à les enrager suffisamment avant de les relâcher dans la nature pour accomplir leurs missions. Pas facile de recruter des candidats prêts à se suicider pour servir les intérêts US. Il faut leur faire perdre raison d'abord...

Mais ou est donc passer notre ami Assange ??

Citation :

Wikileaks' Julian Assange loses extradition appeal

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has failed in his appeal against extradition from the UK to Sweden over allegations of rape and sexual assault.

Two judges at the High Court in London decided that a previous ruling in favour of extradition must be upheld.

Swedish authorities want him to answer accusations of raping one woman and sexually molesting and coercing another in Stockholm last year.

Mr Assange's lawyers say they will appeal at the Supreme Court.

They have 14 days to bring the case to the highest court in the land, on the grounds that it raises issues of general public importance.

However, Mr Assange's legal team will first need to seek permission from the High Court to launch the appeal.

bbc.co.uk/news

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/220936_insight-russia-eu-ca-caucasus-energy-politics-.html

Citation :

INSIGHT - RUSSIA/EU/CA/Caucasus - Energy politics Email-ID 220936
Date 2010-08-09 03:36:14
From reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name analysts@stratfor.com

PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ambassador-at-large for energy security, Czech
Republic and chief of CR's nuclear tender for Temelin
SOURCE Reliability : B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

The level of distrust between Ukraine and Russia is unbelievable. You know
it's bad when they are using guys like me to communicate with each other.
There is a very, very small number of people who actually know what's
going on in the nat gas negotiations -- Putin, Medvedev, head of Naftogaz,
Miller of Gazprom, Yanukovich and maybe the FM. By trust, I mean, for
example, you, Reva and I have a deal. I sell X amount to you, we settle
on an amount to trim from the top and keep for ourselves, clean the books,
etc. Now, all of a sudden, I am replaced. You don't the person you're
dealing with anymore and if he will uphold his end of the deal. Thoughout
the 1990s things worked fine. Over the past few years, though, ppl kept
getting replaced and nobody could trust each other. This is how we got to
the last cutoff.

Putin's strategy during the last cutoff was the following:

Russia know Ukraine is stealing X amount of gas. Russia will send Z amount
of gas promised to Europe plus the X amount of gas Ukraine was stealing.
The objective was to portray Ukraine as the villain, while Russia could be
seen as the dependable partner. Bulgaria, Slovakia and Serbia were the
only ones who be feeling the shortages.

When I met with Putin and Sechin during this cutoff, I was very blunt with
them. I told them the strategy doesn't work. We in Czech Republic,
Slovakia, etc. will survive without Russian gas. We will process other
fuel, it may be dirty, but who cares. We are also getting offers at a
third of the price from Qatar and others.

So, Russia doesn't have that
leverage that it had in 2006. These moves only encourage the Europeans to
find other suppliers. This is a problem for Putin... there are people who
saw the flaws of the strategy but were not able to speak up. It backfired.

You know me, I am an atheist. I don't believe when the Bible says to
turn the other cheek... I say if someone hits you, hit them twice back.
This is about getting even with the Russians. We want Russia to take us
seriously.

Russia is very much in control of Ukrainian decision-making. Only a very
small number of people are in the know there. The Russians don't need
direct ownership of the energy sector to have the influence they're
looking for right now. They were very well prepared for making their
comeback in Ukraine. It is a well-oiled machine there.

Kyrgyzstan was a message for the Chinese primarily. China's presence in
the 'Stans is the big issue right now, and the Russians need to keep China
within limits. China brings in money and infrastructure, but when you talk
to the regimes of these countries, they don't feel comfortable dealing
with the Chinese like they do with the Russians.

THey know the Russians -
Russia is the default language, they know they work, etc. The Chinese come
in on a completely different scale. These regimes are very paranoid.. if
you look at the succession lines of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, they are all
daughters. These govts are looking for security, and that is where Russia
holds the upper hand over China.

Russia is bankrupt save for the extractive industries. They having the
oil, gas, mining, etc., but that is not a developed economy. They are not
in good shape and there is serious thought behind the modernization plan.
The big threat for Russia right now is not coming from the West... it
comes from the East (China) and from the South (Islam.) The Russians are
showing some cooperation with US on Iran, but they haven't done anything,
and they dont need to. It's a low-risk strategy. They aren't losing
anything there.

I don't have faith in Turkey's energy deal with Azerbaijan for Shah Deniz.
It is remarkable to what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence.
THey are thinking about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a
final deal on Shah Deniz II. When I was in Baku recently, they showed me
a 3-D topographic map of Armenia, AZ, Nagorno. You can see very clearly
that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with Russian backing, it is a
flat path to Baku. The Russians told them during the Georgia war that
Georgia could just be the first stop... pretty direct threat. The
Azerbaijanis are terrified of this. The difference between now and when
BTC came online is that the US was actually there back then with a
strategy. US is nonexistent in this game right now. Even the Europeans are
disconnected. AZ, Georgia, Ukraine don't have others to turn to. All
Russia has to do is pay off enough people or make a move in a certain
enclave of Georgia to shut down BTC. AZ cannot only turn West... again,
it's a matter of survival.

Belarus will cave into Russian demands. Lukashenko knows he has no choice.
That's 50 percent of his revenue gone otherwise, and he knows that. He is
a nuisance for the Russians, but he isn't getting help form elsewhere.
Even the Europeans have reproached him.

The Russians are very paranoid about Europe's energy plans. Sechin keeps
asking me what is the secret plan, what are the Europeans plotting, etc. I
tell them there is no secret plan. I wish there were one, but there really
is not.

The decision on building South Stream won't come until 2013-2014, after
Nord Stream is completed. So far, Nord Stream is on track for completion,
but it goes against Russia's energy strategy of avoiding transit states.
The Russians are not happy with my appointment for the nuclear tender.
They think I am anti-Russian. The bid is between Rosatom, Areva and
Westinghouse (Source met with Westinghouse day before our mtg). No two
companies can enter jointly.. that would be breaking the rules of the
tender at this stage. If Rosatom and Westinghouse try to do that for sake
of US-Russia cooperation, then Areva would win by default.

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1537069_re-insight-turkey-some-notes-so-far-.html

Citation :

Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far Email-ID 1537069
Date 2010-03-11 08:39:14
From emre.dogru@stratfor.com
To bhalla@stratfor.com, bayless.parsley@stratfor.com

no worries, Bayless. Gulenist guys loved me and I'm sure they will be
happy to cover my wedding expenses. The only problem is that you won't be
able to drink alcohol.

Bayless Parsley wrote:

that means it's going to be expensive

Reva Bhalla wrote:

dude im going to plan their wedding
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bayless Parsley"
To: "Reva Bhalla"
Cc: "emre dogru"
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:43:10 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
Central
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

oh and i'm sure she is just thrilled the emre pasha is road trippin'
it with some ethnic looking american girl

Reva Bhalla wrote:

haha, the Albanian chick is super cute, btw. Emre Pasha has good
taste
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bayless Parsley"
To: "Reva Bhalla" , "emre dogru"

Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:39:19 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
Central
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

one question: can the power of stratfor get emre laid if he ever
ditches his albanian chick?

Reva Bhalla wrote:

a little anecdote i forgot to add. while we were waiting for our
meeting at the prime minister's building, there was a young guy in
the waiting room who was waiting for his boss who was meeting with
Erdogan's advisor. the guy used to work for an MP and is in the
parliament scene in Ankara. when he found out we were from
Stratfor, he got really excited and told us about how he and his
friend sent a letter to the parliament's head of information or
whatever as a petition for all Turkish MPs to get Stratfor
subscriptions. Obviously he's a big fan and this is something we
can pursue as an institution deal. (getting the appropriate
contact info for this). At the AKP think tank we visited in
Ankara today, they also told us clearly 'we know the power of
Stratfor'. Everyone here wants to influence us one way or another.
Turkey needs a voice in DC. THey're hoping it's us.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "analysts"
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:24:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
Central
Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

Going to sum up a few meetings so far. i will go into more detail
later when it's not 230am and not exhausted from traveling 12 hrs
traveling between istanbul and ankara. Emre will fill in any
other details I've missed. We will be meeting next with two
Turkish energy experts (send questions if you have them -- we need
good turkey energy sources), CEO of Sabanci group (one of the
Istanbul giants), TUSKON business association (Gulenist) and then
on the opposite side of the political spectrum, the head of Dogan
media, then Isbank (also a bastion for the nationalists and
Istanbul giants)
For the first part of my trip, Emre and I have been hanging out
with hardcore Gulenists. We started at Zaman headquarters (Zaman
is main Gulenist newspaper and media voice for AKP, Today's Zaman
is the English-language daily). We met with the Editor in Chief of
Today's Zaman and the head of Cihan news agency (which runs their
major media outlets). Cihan is now the most powerful media outlet
in Turkey. It used to be Hurriyet, dominated by the nationalists,
but they're under attack (will get to that later).
They explicitly represented themselves as part of the 'jamaah', or
the 'movement', as they like to call it. The way they represent
their agenda is that this is about democratization in Turkey,
human rights, world peace, etc. The guy was actually quoting
Western liberal philosophers trying to show how much in common
they have with them in respect for these democratic values, and
this is what's essential for Turkey's candidacy in the EU. The
irony, they claim, is that people think because they're Islamist,
they're fundamentalist and not modern, whereas the authoritarians
(in their view) ie. the military, are the ones who are seen in the
West as modern. This is what frustrates them. So, by promoting
this peace, love and democracy campaign, they say they are
fighting for constitutional reform, business and political
pluralism, civilian control over military, judicial reform, etc.
That there is no secret agenda. (my note -- what Emre and I
noticed is that in all our meetings with Gulenists, they recited
almost the same lines verbatim. they're very well rehearsed in
selling this model. At the root of this, however, is power. The
established elite, ie. the military, Istanbul business giants,
etc. are being threatened by an Islamist political vehicle fueled
by the Anatolian small-to-med business class.) Both of the
sources talked about how they need to raise an Anatolian business
class to undermine the Istanbul giants (they essentially
articulated our own theory, which was cool.).
We discussed the Ergenekon case a lot, which gave them plenty of
opportunity to bash the military for being so irresponsible and
disrespectful to the civilian government. What struck us most is
how they claim they have allies within the military, people high
up in rank, who are disaffected with the establishment and are
WILLING to provide leaks to the Gulenist newspapers and
intelligence services that support these coup allegations. We
heard the exact same story the next day at a Gulenist organization
that we visited. More likely this is an allusion to their
successful penetration of the military (have sent more detailed
insight on this previously)
We also discussed the Gulen schools that are spreading across the
globe, expanding Turkish influence. Of course these are the
schools with teh best resources, facilities. Students will learn
how to speak Turkish, the national anthem, how to be the 'right
kind of Muslim', etc. In essence, it buys them loyalty. We are
still working on getting a complete database of Gulenist schools.
They claim that have more than 2,000 in 200 countries so far.
Today's Zaman editor in chief also talked about his experience at
Turkish Daily News, which is now owned by Dogan group (which owns
Hurriyet and is under attack now by AKP/Gulen). He said at TDN the
tax evasion was so obvious and went into detail about how they did
it and how his salary was parceled out to allow them to write off
most of it. this story was used by him to claim that they at
Zaman didn't start this media war with Hurriyet, it was Hurriyet
that started it because they were involved in all this bad
business, etc.
The next day, Emre and I visited a major Gulenist organization
that puts together these massive conferences all over the world to
promote their agenda, raise funds, recruits, etc. Their office is
in a very expensive part of Istanbul. They've got the best
facilities, this beautiful theater system. In short, they've got
money. Now you have to ask yourself, where is the money coming
from? the head of the organization that met with us and
propagandized us kept talking about all these peace love and
harmony efforts to spread the Gulen ideas and democratize Turkey,
spread Turkey's influence, etc. But their funding comes mainly
from co-opting the Anatolian business class. Again we heard about
how they have allies within the military 'brave' enough to issue
leaks on their coup plots.
After getting a very long tour of the entire building, top to
bottom, they sat us down for a Gulen propaganda film in their
theater. Emre sitting in the middle of the Gulen guy and I. The
Gulen guy is so overcome by the speech shown in the video by
Fethullah Gulen, that he starts crying. Meanwhile im trying really
hard not to laugh. It was an interesting experience.
That evening I had dinner with the editor in chief of Hurriyet,
way on the other side of the political spectrum. He gave his
version of the tax evasion case, said that Zaman and Gulen started
the whole thing and that Bulent Kenes (Zaman editor who we met
with) was part of the problem, he profiteered from that system. In
short, it's very, very tense. The night I met him, he had just
found out that Zaman was suing them for running an article by
Soner Cagaptay, who Gulenists are trying extremely hard to defame
(it's very obvious). This source confirmed what I have heard
earlier about Gulen penetration of military and how they win the
support of the Anatolian business class by giving them a lucrative
place in the supply chain. He gave an example of the Gulen school
influence -- he met with the Algerian ambassador - trained in a
Gulen school, spoke fluent Turkish, extremely friendly to the
Turkish government. A very well-oiled system.
Today, Emre and I took a road trip to Ankara. We first visited the
USAK think tank, which was opened by Abdullah Gul (the president)
in 2009. THey also have a gorgeous office building. The head of
the think tank started out by telling us what Turkish 'soft power'
looks like. He said that during the Cold War times, Turkey looked
at the Arab world in disgust, like they were inferiors. Now Turkey
is paying attention to its neighborhood, wants to stabilize,e tc
(the Davutoglu line). What was most interesting is when he talked
about how Turkey already has plenty to work from in the MIddle
East. He said, Syrians, Egyptians, Iraqis, even Iranians --
they're ALL TURKS. He says they look like Turks, they have TUrkish
relatives from Ottoman history, they want to be like Turks, they
love Turkish lifestyle, etc etc. He said that there is 'no such
thing as an Arab' or Arab nationalism under Nasser. They're all
Turks and Egypt is not a power to be taken seriously. (if any
Arab were in that room, their head would have probably
exploded). they're nothing. Israel is also nothing compared to
Turkish economic, regional, political, population power. He went
on to explain how Turkey can solve everyone's problems, by opening
borders, removing visa restrictions and improving trade with
Egypt, Syria, Iran, etc. A key part of this strategy is also to
benefit the AKP's strategy of raising its own business class ---
the Turkish merchants who benefit from increased trade in the
Mideast are the Antaolian businessmen, and AKP is making sure of
that.
This AKP think tank is in all the big Turkish delegations. He said
that in their last trip to Syria, Bashar tells them he wants to
open the border and wants to democratize (on the latter, yeah
freakin right). He also claims that after their meetings, the
members of the Syrian business council were practically begging
them to stay because they said once the Turks in that delegation
left, everything would go back to the same. Overall, we got the
impression from several of these meetings that Turkey is extremely
focused on the Syria track and increasingly more so on the
Egyptian track. They expect and claim these countries welcome the
Turks with open arms. They also couldn't stop talkinga bout how
Turkish television programs over satellite are spreading os much
influence throughout the mideast and shows them how to be modern
Turks. Saudi Arabia apparently has banned or is trying to ban
these shows. I myself have seen how Turkish soap operas are
extremely popular in the mideast.
He confirmed our analysis that Russia has no intention of seeing
through a Turkey-Armenia deal - it wouldn't make any sense. He
says the AKP leadership was so naive to think that the talks would
go anywhere. Now it's time to turn back to Azerbaijan and Georgia
and fix things with them. AFter all, he says, Azerbaijan doesn't
want to become another dependent of Russia's.
One other interesting thing he said about the Russian factor in
those Armenia talks was that Turkey really expected the US to get
more involved. He said Russia of course was an obstacle, we knew
that. But, the US could have made concessions to Russia to allow
this Armenia deal through. In other words, they expected the US to
be part of a grand bargain in which the US would recognize that
Turkey-Armenia relationship would bring all kinds of benefits, ie.
strengthen an ally in the Caucasus, take care of the genocide
issue, etc. Turkey also expected US to pay a price to Russia for
this project. Here is where there appears to be a
misunderstanding, especially since this Armenia-Turkey deal is
likely very low on US priorities when it comes to how to bargain
with Russia.
We then met Erdogan's chief advisor at the prime minister's
building. This guy is also a Gulenist, but not openly so. The
Hurriyet people say he is and Emre and i noticed the way he was
talking on the phone and using certain phrases marked him as one.
We got a lot of the Davutoglu diplomatic line from him (he's a
very smooth and articulate guy, as Kamran knows). He said that
there needs to be more time in the Iran negotiations and that
things only got really serious in the past 6-7 months. US can't
expect all this to happen overnight. He claims taht prior to the
Iranian Revolution anniversary in February, that Iran actually
agreed to the Turkey fuel swap deal. When they took the deal to
the US, he says the US was totally unprepared then came back and
said they can't do it. Turkey was pissed. They feel that this, in
addition to the Armenia issue and everything else, just goes to
show how the Obama administration doesn't have strong political
leadership (Bush at least fought the armenia resolution) and that
the US doesn't understand or appreciate Turkey's role in the
region. They feel betrayed, to use his words. He says it's
hypocritical for US to get mad if Turkey talks to Russia when
everyone applauds US and Russia negotiating. He says the reason
Turkey is so active in the east is because they're actually
receptive to them there (hint, hint - go tell your government to
wake up and appreciate us). He, like the guy at the AKP Usak
think tank, talked about how Turkey needs the US as a partner in
this region. US just needs to recognize it.

--
Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
+1.512.279.9468
emre.dogru@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

Salam

Pour ceux qui peuvent acceder a wikileaks ils viennent de balancer les emails syriens

WikiLeaks publishes 'embarrassing' Syrian emails

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/07/05/syria-wikileaks-emails.html

http://wikileaks.org/syria-files/releases.html


Wikileaks: Italian firm sold Syria secure radios as crackdown raged

Companies worked around US and EU sanctions, built a secure "emergency" network.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/07/wikileaks-italian-firm-sold-syria-secure-radios-as-crackdown-raged/