How are a few dozen obsolete F-16s in Ukraine going to fight against hundreds of top 10 fighters like the Russian Su-35?
As the saying goes… it’s not about the size of the dog in the fight… it’s about the size of the fight in the dog. And believe me - the F16 can be a very scary beast.
Yes, it is an admirable dogfighter, but it’s key asset in this war is it’s a highly sophisticated weapons platform which brings a wide variety of new systems into play for Ukraine. I’ll discuss arguably the most important of these in the context of the three areas of combat the F16 is likely to be engaged in:
1) Close air support:
Before it can engage in CAS the first order of business is significantly degrading the Russian front line air defenses. The F16 could be influential here with weapons like the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM).
A couple of F16’s patrolling with these means that any time Russia tries for a radar lock the Ukrainians can drop a little surprise on it. And having opened up the skies a bit, the F16 can use it’s stand-off capability to cover a large amount of territory and strike anywhere at any time. This will make life on the front lines even more uncomfortable for the Russians. It will expand the effectiveness of high-precision munitions like the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), and introduce even deadlier systems like the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS), which can target vehicles and even individual troops. And it can act as a rearward observation post, using targetting pods to identify targets and paint them for ground based systems to attack.
2) Interdiction:
Ukraine have been pretty effective at targetting Russian supply lines and command centers - which blunts the Russian ability to fight. This is exacerbated by the Russian centralised command structure which means without orders from above the troops on the front lines are effectively paralysed. Although Ukraine is already achieving startling results in this area, F16s will open up a whole new level of hurt. As a light fighter, it’s unlikely to strap on a Storm Shadow, SCALP or Taurus, but it can still be hugely influential in such attacks thanks to systems such as …
…the AGM154 Joint Stand Off Weapon (JSOW) which is the baby brother (both in payload and range) to the above weapons.
And also Miniature Air Launched Decoys (MALD), which mimic these weapons and draw away (deplete) the air defenses prior to an attack.
3) Airborne counter-attack:
Arguably the biggest impact that the F16 will have on the battlefield is it’s ability to stifle Russian attacks. So far Ukraine’s air defense has been reactive - attempting to shoot down missiles and drones as they are inbound to their cities. Ukraine knows when the Russian aircraft launch, but can do little about it.
But armed with an AIM120 air to air missile the F16’s have the ability to patrol the borders and take out these planes from 160kms away or more. And if they’re lucky enough to get the AIM260 (designed for the F15E/X, F18, F22 and F35, but arguably too secretive for deployment in Ukraine) then they can hit Russian aircraft before they’re in launch range without putting themselves in harm’s way. (Thanks Gary Newman - who sells F16’s - for correcting my numbers here).
And let’s not forget the Black Sea Fleet, which has been pounding the South of Ukraine pretty much with impunity throughout this war.
A single F16 armed with a couple of AGM84 Harpoons will keep them well out of range of the Ukrainian coast. (Remember the Moskva?).
This is not meant to be a complete list of weapons systems the F16 can or may carry. And it’s not even a given that all of these systems will be authorised for use in Ukraine. But hopefully it opens your eyes to the potential that this single seemingly insignificant aircraft brings to the table. If you consider the F16 only as a dogfighter, then you are doing it a huge disservice. The F16 will take this war to a whole new level.
Edit - September 18, 2023 - one problem for Ukraine is Russia’s KA-52 attack helicopters, which are wreaking havoc on Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. So almost certainly F16’s would be deployed within range of the frontline to suppress the use of the choppers. Without it’s Aligators Russia will find it tough going in the swamps of the front lines.
Jeu 29 Fév 2024 - 20:04