Tensions russo-ukrainiens

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Investigating The Kerch Strait Incident

On the 25th of November, Ukraine and Russia were involved in one of the most serious confrontations of the almost 5-year long conflict between the two countries. Russian Navy vessels first rammed and then later fired on and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels, marking the first time Russian-flagged military units had officially attacked those of Ukraine.

Like many events in this conflict, both sides put out conflicting stories of what happened, as well as statements accusing the other of breaching international law. But what can we say for certain happened?

The First Confrontation

The opening act of the clash between the two navies began around 07:00 Russian time. Three Ukrainian Navy vessels – the Gyurza-M-class artillery boats ‘Berdyansk’ and ‘Nikopol’ and the tugboat ‘Yany Kapu’ – sailed towards the Kerch Strait, aiming to transit to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. At around this time, they were intercepted by Russian Coast Guard vessels including the ‘Don’ and the ‘Izumrud’.

At this point, the clarity of the picture begins to break down. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claims that Russian vessels attempted to hail the Ukrainian ships and ask them to turn back, as they were not allowed to transit the Kerch Strait without a Russian navigator on board. The Ukrainians, for their part, claim they were illegally intercepted and had the right to free navigation through the strait.

As to what happened next, we need to analyse several primary sources. The first of these is an alleged communications intercept released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). In it, several groups of Russian naval officers discuss the events which took place. There is no specific timeframe given, and it appears that the intercept is a collection of several recordings between different people forming seven discrete conversations.



From this recording, several key pieces of information can be taken away. The first is that the Russian vessel ‘Don’ rammed the ‘Yany Kapu’ twice. Once at 07:35 at the location (44°56’00″N 36°30’08″E) and a second time at 7:44 at (44°56’06″N 36°30’05″E). The second takeaway is that Russian vessel ‘Izumrud’ was damaged in a collision with another Russian ship.

Another piece of evidence is a video showing the Russian ship ‘Don’ appearing to intentionally ram the Ukrainian tug ‘Yany Kapu’. This footage can be seen below.



From this footage, several things can be seen. First, the identity of the boat which the video was shot from can be determined from the distinctive off-set 30mm autocannon seen at 0’51” in the footage, which is also present on the preexisting photos of the ‘Don’. Second, the approximate time of day that the video was shot can also be determined. In the footage, it appears to be shortly after sunrise. According to SunCalc, sunrise on the 25th of November in this area was at 7:46. As such, the video must have been shot within around an hour after sunrise the given the relatively low position of the sun in the sky. As well, in the video, a voice (presumably that of the pilot of the ‘Don’) shouts “eight twenty-one (08:21)” immediately after the collision. It is likely this is the time of the collision and appears to converge with the timeframe suggested by the solar position.

This is further backed up by an apparently unnoticed detail in the video. In it, the tug ‘Yani Kapu’ has already sustained damage from at least two individual strikes. This would confirm that it happened after the 07:35 and 07:44 strikes mentioned in the SBU intercept video. Photos of these areas of damage, when compared to a photo of the undamaged ship taken just a day before can be seen below.

Notably, following this video, the Yani Kapu was struck at least one more time. Video released by Telekanal Zvezda shot an hour or two later in the morning, when the sun was higher in the sky, shows that the tug has sustained additional damage to its port stern, which was not present either in the ramming video or the image taken of the Yani Kapu on the 24th of November.

Further evidence also backs up information from the SBU intercept. Images released by Kerch.FM show damage sustained by the Russian Coast Guard ship ‘Izumrud’. The location of this damage (high on the starboard midship area) is consistent with a strike from a Russian vessel larger than the smaller Ukrainian boats. As well the long scar along the side of the ship is inconsistent with weapons damage. This fits in with the SBU tape wherein a collision between ‘Izumrud’ and another Russian vessel is discussed.

The Second Confrontation

As the day continued, Russian Coast Guard vessels continued blocking manoeuvres against the three Ukrainian ships. A large cargo vessel was used to physically block the narrow passage under the Kerch Bridge, and a separate group of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Sea of Azovwas forced to return to their base in Berdyansk.

Little information exists for what transpired over this period, however, the SBU intercept recording suggests that one of the Russian Coast Guard vessels took on a complement of 10 special forces soldiers to assist in later actions.

The aforementioned Telekanal Zvezda video also contains another piece of useful information. In the first few seconds of the video, a bulk freight ship identified as the ‘Aviona’ can be seen within a few hundred meters from one of the Ukrainian armoured artillery boats. Using ship-tracking website MarineTraffic, we can determine that the ‘Aviona’ was at anchor in the Kerch Strait in effectively the same location for the entirety of November 25. This gives us a new data point for the location of the Ukrainian ships later in the day, much further north than previous positions.

Under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which Ukraine and the Russian Federation are parties to, territorial waters extend at most 12 nautical miles (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state. Notably, this additional position near the ‘Aviona’ shows a Ukrainian vessel within not just the territorial waters of Crimea, but also mainland Russia.

It is also worth noting that Ukraine, as well as most Western countries, does not recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and by extension its territorial sea. Moreover, Ukraine has cited a 2003 agreement with Russia that denotes the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait as a shared waterway, allowing free passage.

After 18:00 local time, however, the Ukrainian ships attempted to leave the area, and return to their home port of Odessa. They were, by all accounts pursued, intercepted, fired on, and boarded. Several Ukrainian soldiers were injured and the ships were later captured by Russian Naval forces.

Both sides made attempts to assert that this clash happened either outside of Russian-claimed territorial waters (in the case of Ukraine) and inside them (in the case of Russia).

The Russian FSB released a detailed timeline of the events of the day, including a number of geographical positions in which key events occurred. These events are plotted on the map seen below.



The Russian FSB makes that point that the initial interception, as well as the warning shots, and finally the shots which hit the ‘Berdyansk’ all took place within the ‘territorial waters of Russia’. This does not align with the location data they themselves released.

Specifically, the most serious incident – the shooting of the ‘Berdyansk’ – took place at 44°51.3’N, 36° 23.4 E (notated in the official release as Ш=44° 51’3 СШ, Д=36° 23’4 ВД). We know the FSB is using decimal arc-minutes in their notation, rather than arc-minutes and arc-seconds, due to the fact that an earlier location is given as (Ш=44° 53’47 СШ, Д=36° 25’76 ВД) something which would be impossible under a degrees and minutes notation style – specifically the final digits ‘76’.


As can be seen in the above image, the FSB data, if correct, shows that the ‘Berdyansk’ was 22.72km from the coast of Crimea, and more than 500m outside of Russian-claimed territorial waters when it came under fire.

Ukraine for its part provided less detailed information regarding key locations during this period.


Unfortunately, while Ukraine asserts that its ships were outside of the 12 nautical mile UNCLOS limit, even if their location data is taken at face value, it is inconclusive. This is due to the fact that they only provided 4-digit locations. Such locations do not pinpoint a single point but rather a rectangle approximately 1.8 km on the N-S axis and 1.3km on the E-W axis. Given this level of imprecision, the positions could be potentially within, or outside of the 12 nautical mile limit. Ukraine likely does have access to more precise location data, and could make this public if it wishes to add clarity.

Additionally, an alleged mayday call released by Ukrainian publication Liga Novosti from one of the three Ukrainian vessels includes the audio “How many wounded do you have? I need help! I need help! Mayday! Mayday!” followed by the coordinates N 44° 51’ 00’’, E 36° 23’ 04’’. This location is southwest of the position Russia claims it fired on the ‘Berdyansk’, and is also outside of the 12 nautical mile limit, and thus in international waters.

As for the details of the confrontation itself, we again fall back on statements by both Ukraine and Russia, in lieu of primary sources. Interestingly, neither country’s statements contradict the other aside from their positions relative to the territorial waters line. Both sides claim that Russian forces shot at and crippled the ‘Berdyansk’, capturing it and the tug Yani Kapu shortly after. Initially, the Ukrainian military claimed that both the ‘Berdyansk’ and the ‘Nikopol’ ships had been damaged, before clarifying at 23:20 (Russian time) that only the ‘Berdyansk’ was hit.



Photos of the Ukrainian ships in port in Kerch post-capture show many small calibre bullet holes in the ‘Berdyansk’ as well as at least one large calibre hole in its bridge. This larger hit especially confirms that Russian forces were not shooting to disable the vessel, but rather to harm the crew. The FSB release itself notes that the Russian Coast Guard vessel ‘Izumrud’ issued threats to the ‘Berdyansk’ that “weapons to kill” would be used if the vessel did not comply with its request to stop.




Summary:

From this information, several things are made clear. Firstly, based on geolocated video footage, Ukrainian ships did enter Russian-claimed territorial waters, both that of Crimea and mainland Russia in the Kerch Strait. Ukraine nonetheless argues this was legally permissible due to the 2003 agreement between the two countries. Secondly, we can say that the Ukrainian tug ‘Yani Kapu’ was intentionally rammed at least four times over a period of at least an hour. Thirdly, based on information provided by the Russian FSB which appears to incriminate themselves, the shooting of the ‘Berdyansk’ most likely took place in international waters.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/11/30/investigating-the-kerch-strait-incident/

Des propos intéressants qui rappellent quelques réalités :

- La guerre de 2022 n'est que la conséquence de ce qui a été commencé en 2014 ;
- Il faut arrêter de placer cette guerre sur l'angle de la morale et devenir plus rationnel ;
- Les Européens doivent arrêter de se faire dicter leur politique par les Ukrainiens.

à partir de minute 14 il a tout dis, personnes dans les dirigeants occidentaux n'a le caractère suffisant pour stopper tous cela d'une manière "diplomatique" ... un journaliste macronian saute sans slip pour dire que macron a essayé de faire cela ... et la réponse vient claire et nette par Henri Guaino bravo à ce monsieur.. enjoy

Ça tombe bien qu'on parle de cet avion ! Il a été photographié le 28 février, et ne présente... pas de dommages apparents.

et voila Uk dépense des Milliards pour l'Ukraine et son peuple est dans la merde des anti vol sur du beurre et les plaquettes de viande je n ai jamais vu ca de ma vie

Tu l'a vu que sur TF1, ça peut être n'importe quoi ces français attendent depuis des millénaires que l'UK tombe ....

C pas comme si la BBC le montre...

Fox-One a écrit:

Tu l'a vu que sur TF1, ça peut être n'importe quoi ces français attendent depuis des millénaires que l'UK tombe ....

C pas comme si la BBC le montre...

C'est pas mieux en  France 

fighter-jet a écrit:

Fox-One a écrit:

Tu l'a vu que sur TF1, ça peut être n'importe quoi ces français attendent depuis des millénaires que l'UK tombe ....

C pas comme si la BBC le montre...

C'est pas mieux en  France 

Une augmentation de 14% de vols, une correlation avec l'inflation apparement

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-says-it-is-reviewing-social-media-posts-that-purport-to-reveal-classified-documents-on-ukraine-4d7524f

Citation :

WSJ News Exclusive | Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include Secret U.S. Documents
Yaroslav Trofimov and Nancy A. Youssef
9 - 11 minutes

The Pentagon is investigating social-media posts that purport to reveal highly classified U.S. government documents on the war in Ukraine and other key international topics, in what could be one of the most dangerous intelligence breaches in decades.

Well over 100 images, marked with “Top Secret” and other classifications indicating they represent highly sensitive U.S.-produced intelligence, were posted in the Discord message board of fans of the Minecraft computer game around March 1. While many of them were deleted recently, open-source intelligence researchers have managed to download more than 60 files.

The documents, which appear to originate from within the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, include details about the disposition of Ukrainian forces, air defenses and military equipment, classified information about arms and support the U.S. has provided to Kyiv in its fight against Russian invaders, and intelligence on internal matters in a variety of nations, including Israel and South Korea.

The Pentagon said Friday night it is reviewing the matter: “The Department of Defense is actively reviewing the matter, and has made a formal referral to the Department of Justice for investigation,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said.

“We have been in communication with the Department of Defense related to this matter and have begun an investigation,’’ a Justice Department spokeswoman said in a statement. “We decline further comment.”

A CIA spokesperson said the agency is aware of the social-media posts and is looking into the matter.

The Wall Street Journal wasn’t able to independently authenticate the documents, but they contain enough detail to give them credibility, and the leak has rattled Pentagon officials. This week, the U.S. has already changed how military personnel access such documents, defense officials said. But Pentagon officials have yet to determine how the documents appeared online or which military installation they could have come from, defense officials said.

Even before the scope of the disclosures emerged, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Kyiv would take fresh steps to prevent leaks about its planned spring offensive.

Mr. Zelensky said that he convened the country’s top military commanders and security officials on Friday to discuss the planned push to regain the 18% of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia. The meeting, he added in a statement, also discussed new “measures to prevent leaks of information about the plans of Ukrainian defense forces.”

Aric Toler, head of research and training with the Bellingcat investigative consortium, said he found the cache of new documents on Friday, a day after at least six purported images of classified U.S. documents were published on the Telegram platform by pro-Kremlin war commentators. At least one of these images had been altered—to lower an estimate of Russian casualties and to inflate Ukrainian losses.

Those and some additional images had been posted on the 4chan messaging platform on Thursday.

Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia.

The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition.

Ukrainian forces at a military training ground near a front line in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Photo: STRINGER/REUTERS

Other documents contained detailed information on the schedules and routes of U.S. and allied reconnaissance aircraft in the Black Sea; the vulnerabilities of some of the American weapons provided to Ukraine; and the composition and armaments of the nine Ukrainian army brigades being trained by the U.S. and allies for the coming spring offensive. Russian jets forced a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone to crash into the Black Sea on March 14, two weeks after these files were posted.

In addition to documents pertaining to the war in Ukraine, the leaked files included purported copies of the daily intelligence report provided to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley, Central Intelligence Agency reports on leaders of Israel’s Mossad spy service, and intelligence on discussions within the government of South Korea on sales of artillery ammunition to Kyiv. Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations.

“If some guy on Minecraft Map Discord was able to find these and share them a few days after they first appeared on March 1, there is a pretty good chance that Russian intelligence was able to get a glance at them, too,” Mr. Toler said.

At the margins of some pages are printed markings common to top-secret documents, including the government agency that produced them and the level of classification. Documents include updates from the CIA’s Operations Center, as well as material from a host of other intelligence units.

Those include the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency; the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which analyzes data from spy satellites; the eavesdropping National Security Agency; and the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

U.S. defense officials said they believe at least some of the images were leaks of documents produced by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is composed of top military commanders for each of the services and advises the president.

Gen. Milley was briefed Wednesday afternoon about the first batch of leaked documents to surface, as was Mr. Austin, the defense officials said, before the discovery of the latest suspected leaked documents.

The U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners have been training and equipping nine Ukrainian Army brigades with Western heavy weapons, including the Leopard-2 and Challenger tanks, and Stryker, Marder and Bradley fighting vehicles. Ukraine is separately training several other combat brigades, under the auspices of the army, the national guard, the border service and other security agencies.

The photographs that emerged online earlier this week appear to be of printed presentation slides and maps. Because classified documents can only be printed on approved systems, the U.S. government will likely have some record of who produced them, said Aram Gavoor, associate dean for academic affairs at George Washington University Law School and a national-security expert.

Documents receive a Top Secret designation when U.S. officials believe their disclosure could cause exceptionally grave damage to national security. “That means that the unauthorized release of these could lead to loss of life inside Ukraine,” said Mr. Gavoor. Many of these documents are marked NOFORN—meaning that they cannot be released even to America’s closest allies.

While both U.S. and Ukrainian officials were wary of sharing information with one another early in the war, fearing their plans might be compromised, mutual trust had improved in recent months. It is unclear to what extent this incident will sour exchanges between the two nations.

The war in Ukraine has led to a large volume of regularly updated classified documents that have been shared widely within the U.S. government.

“Keeping in mind that a great majority of classified documents are never leaked, the risk of a leak increases in an environment like this one where the United States is engaging in an unprecedented intelligence, advisory and logistics operation in support of Ukraine,” said Mr. Gavoor, the national-security expert at George Washington University Law School.

Citation :

Egypt nearly supplied rockets to Russia, agreed to arm Ukraine instead, leak shows
Missy Ryan, Evan Hill, Siobhán O'Grady
11 - 13 minutes

Egypt paused a plan to secretly supply rockets to Russia last month following talks with senior U.S. officials and instead decided to produce artillery ammunition for Ukraine, according to five leaked U.S. intelligence documents that have not been previously reported.

The Post last week reported on another document that exposed a covert scheme by Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi in February to provide Russia with up to 40,000 122mm Sakr-45 rockets, which can be used in Russian multiple-launch rocket launchers. Sisi instructed his subordinates to keep the project secret “to avoid problems with the West,” the document said.

But the new documents, which The Washington Post obtained from a trove of material allegedly posted on Discord by a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, appear to show Sisi in early March backing away from plans to supply Moscow, a move that would have represented a major rebuke to Cairo’s most generous Western ally, the United States.

Egypt, though it has a long-standing diplomatic and military relationship with Russia, has for decades been a principal American ally in the Middle East and receives more than $1 billion a year in U.S. military aid.

In an apparent diplomatic win for the Biden administration, a new leaked document stated that Egypt shelved the Moscow deal and approved selling 152mm and 155mm artillery rounds to the United States for transfer to Ukraine.

Washington has sought to enlist new supporters — and desperately needed ammunition — for Kyiv’s fight against Russian forces. Egypt intended to use its capacity to produce weapons for Ukraine as “leverage” to obtain advanced U.S. military items, the document said.

Taken together, the documents provide new insight into the Biden administration’s quiet but high-stakes diplomacy with countries that have sought to stay on the margins of Washington’s intensifying standoff with Moscow. They also show how great power competition has allowed Egypt to seek new advantages as its relationship with the United States grows less crucial.

“The mere fact of competition creates openings for easy wins with the U.S., and you can imagine that this will be to the detriment of the democracy and human rights agenda,” said Michael Hanna, U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group.

The documents do not indicate whether Cairo later revived the Moscow plan or whether it has yet supplied the United States with the ammunition for Ukraine.

The Post earlier reported that Egypt has denied producing rockets for Russia, and a U.S. government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address sensitive information, told The Post there was no indication Egypt had executed the plan.

Presented with the new documents, a spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the leaked materials. After the initial report on Russian rocket production, Egyptian state-run media reported that officials denied the claim, saying it had “no basis in truth.”

A senior Biden administration official said, “Egypt is a close partner and we are regularly engaged with its leadership on a host of regional and global issues.”

The United States faces challenges ramping up its own production of artillery shells and other items needed in Ukraine and has sought help from partner nations worldwide in advance of what U.S. officials predict will be challenging spring fighting season. Conversely, Washington has slapped sanctions on its adversary Iran over shipments of arms to Russia and issued warnings to China against doing the same.

One Western ambassador in Cairo said the leaks suggest Egypt “underestimated the U.S. response to a possible arms supply to Russia” and wanted to “maximize their benefit from both sides.”

The top-secret documents — informed in part by signals intelligence, or eavesdropping — detail a month of intelligence reports from early February to early March and were intended for top Pentagon officials.

The first, dated Feb. 17, reports that Egypt took steps in late January and early February to secretly supply rockets to Russia, including setting a price and making plans for obtaining brass to make the rockets. In a conversation on Jan. 31, Minister of State for Military Production Mohamed Salah al-Din told Sisi that he advised Russian delegates that their agreed price of $1,100 per unit could rise to $1,500 due to a potential increase in brass prices. The Russians were ready to “buy anything,” he told Sisi. The Egyptian president also told Salah al-Din, according to the document, to request “specialized equipment” from Russia to improve the accuracy of the rockets or the quality of the Egyptian factories making them.

A second and undated document, likely from mid-February, states that Egypt began creating a rocket production line for the Russian military. Russian delegates had requested to purchase 15,000 rockets at the $1,100 unit price, the document states, but Sisi ordered subordinates to purchase the necessary materials to produce up to 40,000.

Like Ukraine’s army, Russian forces have expended enormous amounts of weaponry in the grinding war and need resupply.

Egypt’s president appears to have put a stop to the rocket plan following visits from U.S. officials, including Brett McGurk and Barbara Leaf, the top White House and State Department officials for Middle East issues, who traveled to Cairo in late February, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who visited in early March.

The Wall Street Journal reported that month that Austin asked Egyptian leaders to provide Ukraine artillery rounds during their talks in Cairo but got no clear agreement. But an intelligence document dated March 9, the day after Austin’s visit, states that Egypt had approved selling 152mm and 155mm artillery rounds to the United States for transfer to Ukraine.

That document, part of a daily intelligence update for senior Pentagon leaders, said that Egypt planned to use the U.S. request for ammunition to push Washington for a long-term military aid deal and to obtain specific American equipment, including F-35 stealth fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems. The document said that Egypt would require American help for establishing a production line for the shells, a licensing agreement and raw materials.

Austin’s visit is the subject of another document, apparently from mid-March, that summarizes conversations between Sisi and two senior officials on March 8, the day the Egyptian president and the U.S. defense secretary held talks in Cairo.

In the March 8 conversations, Sisi appeared to suspect the possibility his discussions were being surveilled and issued Defense Minister Mohamed Zaki what the document described as a warning to “‘be careful’ about discussing presumably military requests from other countries, like Russia.” He and Zaki referenced “military contracts” with Russia but did not explicitly reference the rocket production plan, the document reported.

Zaki told Sisi that plans for an Egyptian delegation to travel to Russia on March 12 or 13, when they would likely sign contracts, had been postponed “until the situation is clearer” following Austin’s visit. Sisi said that “caution was warranted to avoid Egypt getting into trouble unnecessarily,” to which Zaki responded that “we have not taken any measures” and that Egypt had not signed any contracts.

Cairo has recently evinced frustration with the state of the relationship with Washington. The document summarizing Sisi’s March 8 conversations reports the Egyptian president “characterized the situation as the U.S. not having anything new for Egypt and not needing anything from Egypt, with the U.S. only interested in confirming U.S.-Egypt relations.”

“ElSisi envisioned the U.S. believing Israel was doing well, the Gulf countries were fine, and Europe was supporting the U.S. regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so as a result, Egypt’s role was secondary,” it continued.

The United States has pressed Egypt on human rights issues, including on its widespread jailing of activists and anyone who might voice opposition to Sisi. Last year, Washington withheld a small portion of its military aid to Egypt, citing concerns over this pattern of repression.

Even so, President Biden — who once pledged “no more blank checks” for Sisi — has faced scrutiny for adopting what some critics saw as an overly friendly approach to the Egyptian president, including a chummy interaction on the sidelines of the COP27 climate conference in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh last year.

The intelligence also provides additional visibility into Egypt’s deepening military relationship with Moscow and how it may have already aided Russian forces on the battlefield. An additional, undated document in the leaked trove notes that U.S. imagery and electronic intelligence had identified four Russian SA-23 surface-to-air missile systems in Ukraine that “very likely” had been intended for export to Egypt. Cairo signed a contract with Moscow for four SA-23 batteries in 2017, and the first two were delivered to Egypt in 2020 and 2021, the document stated. It did not explicitly say whether Egypt had returned those two systems to Russia for use in Ukraine.

When Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Egypt took a public position of noninvolvement, voting for an end to the invasion at the United Nations but otherwise remaining neutral, and receiving visiting officials from both Russia and the United States. But with international grain shortages due to the war in Ukraine, Egypt has relied heavily on Russia to provide wheat that has helped stave off social unrest over rising food prices and an economic crisis caused in part by fallout from the conflict. Russia also began construction on Egypt’s first nuclear power plant last year and recently signed a deal for a railway workshop in Egypt.

The two countries have a long history of military and trade cooperation, even as Egypt relies on the United States for more than $1 billion of military aid each year. Egypt’s enormous population, strategic location neighboring Israel and control over the Suez Canal have long kept it relevant internationally, and Egyptian officials have tried to represent themselves to the United States and other powerful allies as a key security partner and mediator in regional tensions.

A former National Security Council official during the Obama administration who worked on the Middle East and spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations said that it was common for Egypt to use Russia as a “hedge” to push Washington. After the 2013 Rabaa massacre and military coup led by Sisi prompted the government to review aid to Egypt, Cairo indicated that it could “turn to Russia,” a threat that “resonated with some senior officials at the time,” the person said.

Behind the scenes, the leaked documents suggest, Egypt’s balancing act was more complicated.

“Ideally it is not an either or, but appeasing both ends,” the Western ambassador said. “Bottom line is, though, they cannot endanger their ties with Russia [either], so they cannot actively cooperate with the U.S. on supplies to Ukraine.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/17/russia-ukraine-egypt-weapons-leaked-documents/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65563027

Citation :

South Africa supplied arms to Russia - US ambassador Reuben Brigety
By Pumza Fihlani in Johannesburg & Marita Moloney in London
5 - 7 minutes

The Russian military frigate 'Admiral Gorshkov' docked in the harbour of Cape Town on February 13, 2023Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

The Russian fleet sent to South Africa for naval exercises was led by the Admiral Gorshkov warship, seen here in Cape Town in February

The US ambassador to South Africa has accused the country of supplying weapons to Russia despite its professed neutrality in the war in Ukraine.

Reuben Brigety claimed that a Russian ship was loaded with ammunition and arms in Cape Town last December.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's office said it was disappointed by the claims and said no evidence has been provided to support them.

The country has maintained claims of neutrality in the invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Brigety said at a media briefing in Pretoria on Thursday that Washington had concerns about the country's stated non-aligned stance on the conflict.

He referred to the docking of a cargo ship in the Simon's Town naval base between 6 and 8 December last year which he was "confident" uploaded weapons and ammunition "as it made its way back to Russia".

The presence of the ship, the Lady R, had seemed curious at the time and raised questions from some local politicians.

"The arming of the Russians is extremely serious, and we do not consider this issue to be resolved," Mr Brigety said, in a damning accusation that seems to have caught South Africa's officials off guard.

In the wake of the allegations, the South African government announced the establishment of an independent inquiry led by a retired judge, a spokesman for the president's office said.

The US has been critical for months about South Africa's continued cosy relationship with Russia.

It also expressed concerns about South Africa's participation in military exercises with Russia and China during the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa responds to questions in parliamentImage source, Reuters
Image caption,

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told parliament his government was looking into the claims

The naval exercises took place over 10 days in February and were criticised by opposition figures as an endorsement of the Russian invasion.

The South African authorities denied the war games were provocatively timed to coincide with the one-year anniversary and said the country routinely hosts similar drills with other nations, including France and the US.

South Africa previously abstained from a UN vote condemning the invasion. It also refused to join the US and Europe in imposing sanctions on Russia.

In response to a question raised by the leader of the opposition John Steenhuisen, President Ramaphosa told parliament on Thursday that the comments made by the US ambassador would be looked into.

The president asked opposition parties to allow for the process to be completed, adding that "in time we will be able to speak about it".

The US State Department has not yet commented on the claims.

If they are true, they not only weaken South Africa's claim of neutrality, but some may even go as far as saying the country is complicit in the ongoing aggression of Russia in Ukraine.

"If South African bullets are found on Ukraine bodies, that is not a position we would want to be in," one expert in international relations said.

The details around the arms cache are still thin. It is not clear if the weapons would have been acquired from a state-owned arms company, or a weapons company based in South Africa.

But either way, this does not bode well for South Africa's international ties, especially with the US, one of its largest trade allies.

At the heart of the issue for South Africa now, off the back of these claims, will be the impression this could create that the country is not only non-aligned but has in fact chosen to be a "soft ally" to Russia, at a time when some Western countries see Russia as an aggressor guilty of human rights violations.

South Africa has modern-day ties with Russia because they are members of the Brics alliance, a group which represents some of the world's leading emerging economies, including China, Brazil and India.

The country's governing African National Congress (ANC) also has long-standing ties with Russia.

South Africa was faced with a diplomatic dilemma in March after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He is accused of being responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, including the unlawful deportation of children.

Mr Putin was due to attend an upcoming Brics summit in South Africa in August but the warrant meant that Pretoria would have to detain him on arrival.

In response, last month Mr Ramaphosa said the ANC had decided that South Africa should quit the ICC, before backtracking hours later citing what his office called a communications "error".

Historically, South Africa had a thriving arms industry, selling weapons to countries across the continent. The scale of that arms power to date is currently not known.

South Africa's authorities have been less than pleased with the accusation from the US ambassador, saying the matter should have been handled through proper diplomatic channels.

It is not enough for the envoy to simply claim the existence of the intelligence and there will be an expectation from many in South Africa for the US to provide evidence of its claim.

This is a hang-up of claims once made by the US of weapons of mass destruction, which led to the invasion of Iraq some years ago.

Entrevue avec Piotr Tolstoï à Moscou

De passage à Moscou, Anne-Laure Bonnel s’entretient avec Piotr Tolstoï, le vice-président de la Douma, rappelant d’entrée de jeu que Libre Média valorise le dialogue. Au programme: l’Ukraine, le nouvel ordre international et la liberté d’expression.

Je ne sais pas si vous en avez déjà entendu parler, mais en Occident il est beaucoup question du "génocide" ukrainien de la Grande famine ukrainienne de 1933. Cette dame revient sur ces événements et l'instrumentalisation qui en est faite.

Jacques Baud : “Chine-Russie, le nouvel Axe du Mal”

La stratégie des États-Unis est-elle dans l’impasse ? Quelle est la conduite russe des opérations militaires ? Quand aura lieu la contre-offensive ukrainienne ? L’armement occidental fait-il vraiment la différence en Ukraine ? Qui sont les gagnants de cette guerre ? À quels bouleversements du monde sommes-nous en train d’assister depuis le 24 février 2022 ? Quelle est la réalité des pertes, côté ukrainien et côté russe ? L’industrie occidentale parvient-elle à rivaliser avec celle de la Russie en Ukraine ? Pourquoi ne cherche-t-on pas une solution négociée ? En quoi notre perception du conflit est-elle en train de desservir l’Ukraine ?

Pour répondre à ces questions et à bien d’autres, Jacques Baud s’appuie sur les informations des services de renseignement occidentaux et les documents américains qui ont fuité en avril 2023. Après les best-sellers Poutine, le maître du jeu ? et Opération Z, dont le travail d’analyse a été salué dans le monde entier, l’auteur revient sur la guerre en Ukraine en analysant les faits et rien que les faits. Que l’on soit pour ou contre la position de l’Ukraine, on est condamné à revenir au terrain des opérations et à analyser ce qui s’y déroule. C’est à ce prix qu’un chemin vers la paix est possible, et non en nous fondant sur des illusions.

Citation :

AUG24

Russian Mi-8 AMTSh helicopter defector pilot flies nearly 100km in Ukraine before landing


According to an article by Alona Mazurenko in Ukrainska Pravda, Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, has revealed that a Russian pilot defected and cooperated with Ukrainian Defence Intelligence by flying a Mi-8 AMTSh helicopter nearly 100 km into Ukraine, landing in the Kharkiv region after covering a distance of nearly 100km on August 23rd. Budanov stated that the pilot is in good spirits and is inclined to remain in Ukraine. The pilot is set to play a prominent role in an upcoming film produced by Defence Intelligence, scheduled for release on September 7th.



Left: the Russian Mi-8 ATMSh in Ukraine after his pilot defector landed. Right: Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (Picture
source: Ukrainska Pravda)


http://worlddefencenews.blogspot.com/2023/08/russian-mi-8-amtsh-helicopter-defector.html  

[Russie ]

Le vice-président du Parlement russe, Petr Tolstoy, déclare que l'Ukraine doit payer le prix de ne plus avoir de liens avec la Russie. Que sa destruction totale est anecdotique. pic.twitter.com/c1Nf5uGeOE

— Cartes du Monde (@CartesDuMonde) September 14, 2023

[ RUSSIE | UKRAINE ]

« Pensez-vous que la Pologne exerce aujourd'hui une pression sans raison sur la pauvre Ukraine ? Non, ils ont reçu le feu vert de l'étranger : Nous devons nous débarrasser de ce Zelensky, nous en avons assez de lui. » - Alexandre Loukachenko. pic.twitter.com/DsvnA001jQ

— (Little) Think Tank (@L_ThinkTank) September 23, 2023

U.S. State Department:

The United States would not like to see China's participation in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 8, 2023

Citation :

Russia Turns to Longtime Arms Customers to Boost War Arsenal - WSJ
9 - 11 minutes

Updated Nov. 8, 2023 12:56 pm ET

Russia has sought to retrieve parts from defense systems it had exported to countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Belarus and Brazil, as it tries to replenish the enormous stocks of weapons being expended for the war in Ukraine.

Last April, a delegation of Russian officials visiting Cairo asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to give back more than a hundred engines from Russian helicopters that Moscow needed for Ukraine, three people with knowledge of the incident said. Sisi agreed and deliveries of about 150 engines are likely to start next month, say the people.

An Egyptian government spokesman declined to comment.

Those talks were part of a larger Russian push to seek help from its longtime arms customers, who for decades bought Russian aircraft, missiles and air-defense systems, making Moscow the world’s second-largest arms exporter. Throughout the year, Russia held talks with officials from Pakistan, Belarus and Brazil to try to acquire engines for the Russian attack and transport helicopters its forces lost to Ukrainian defenses early in the war, one of those people and another former Russian intelligence officer said.

“Russia spent decades building its arms trade,” said a person with knowledge of the buybacks. “Now they’re going back in secret to their customers trying to buy back what they sold them.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the red tie, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi at a summit in St. Petersburg in July. Photo: Sergey Bobylev/TASS/REUTERS
President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, wearing a white tie, have had talks over Pyongyang selling munitions to Moscow for use in Ukraine. Photo: KCNA/via REUTERS

In other cases Russia has sacrificed part of its prized arms export business to the war effort, rerouting arms meant for India and Armenia to Russia’s front line, the two said.

The push to fill its arsenal through export requisitions and buybacks coincides with Russia ramping up its own production of ammunition, spare parts and weapons systems to support a conflict that will soon enter its third year and that is burning through enormous quantities of materiel. Russia’s war machine has likewise acquired more munitions from partners, including ammunition from North Korea.

Much of Moscow’s efforts to buy back Russian arms have come as the Kremlin pushed back against an offensive by Ukraine’s forces in the east and south of the country. With that offensive now slowing, Russia is seeking to retake the initiative on the battlefield, although it is unclear whether the new supplies will give Moscow the resources it needs to step up its attacks.

“We don’t know the extent to which they’ll use the stocks to increase their tempo of attack or just keep up their current tempo,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, military analysts based in Poland.

What Videos of Russia’s Destroyed Weapons Tell Us About Its Strategy

What Videos of Russia’s Destroyed Weapons Tell Us About Its Strategy

What Videos of Russia’s Destroyed Weapons Tell Us About Its StrategyPlay video: What Videos of Russia’s Destroyed Weapons Tell Us About Its Strategy
Videos taken following Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson show destroyed tanks, trucks and radars along roads and on battlefields. The abandoned hardware illustrates Russia’s new strategy to regroup forces in Ukraine ahead of the winter. Photos: Zuma Press/Storyful

The Russian delegation touched down in Cairo soon after it emerged that Egypt was considering sending rockets to Russia. Cairo dropped that plan under pressure from the U.S., which then asked Egypt to instead supply weapons to Ukraine to help the country with a shortage of ammunition.

When the Russians arrived in Egypt soon after, they wanted to ensure ties between the two countries—which have for decades enjoyed warm relations—were still strong. For Moscow, Egypt was an important customer who since 2014 had signed several multibillion-dollar contracts for Russian helicopters, fighter planes and air-defense systems.

Egypt subsequently backed out of parts of those deals in March for fear of facing U.S. sanctions. Moreover, Cairo was unable to pay for the portion of the arms it did receive because of sanctions that restricted Russia’s use of the SWIFT payments clearing system.

When the deal to send missiles to Russia was scuttled, the Russians then asked Egypt to give back 150 engines for the Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters it had sold to Egypt—and to move quickly to avoid detection by the U.S., the three people said.

Russia said in exchange it would forgive Egypt’s arrears and continue to provide assistance for Egypt with crucial wheat supplies. If Egypt refused, Russia threatened to pull out its arms-industry advisers, said two people familiar with the situation. Russia maintains several hundred such advisers in Egypt.

When Sisi met Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit for African nations that Russia held in St. Petersburg in July, the Egyptian president agreed. He also told Putin that he wouldn’t send the missiles he had promised to the Americans to Ukraine, two people with knowledge of the situation said.
Russia’s state-owned military export firm JSC Rosoboronexport at a helicopter-industry exhibition in Moscow in May. Photo: yuri kochetkov/Shutterstock

Egyptian government spokesman Diaa Rashwan declined to comment on whether Egypt was giving the engines back. He said that Cairo wouldn’t compromise its own security given the various regional threats at its doorstep.

“Egypt, irrespective of the depth of its positive engagements with any country—including Russia—is not willing to give up its armed capabilities to another entity,” said Rashwan.

The three people, however, said Egypt is planning to start sending about 150 engines likely in December. It was unclear how many Egypt planned on sending back.

The episode captures a complicated history between Egypt, the U.S. and Russia. Egypt was a Cold War customer of Soviet arms, before turning to the U.S. in recent decades. Cairo, however, has maintained some arms trade ties with Russia. The U.S., which sees Egypt as a crucial partner in the Middle East, has acquiesced to some Egyptian deals with Russia but has threatened sanctions to stop others, said one of the people.
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A spokesman for the Pentagon declined to comment.

Russia’s need for weapons has also hit its exports, in some cases causing Moscow to fail to deliver on deals, particularly for arms systems for land forces. Russian arms exports likely reached only $8 billion last year, nearly half the 2021 level of $14.5 billion.

For instance, Armenia has received few, if any, shipments from Russia of ammunition for multiple-rocket launcher systems such as Grad and Uragan. As a result, Armenian forces were short of arms in September when Azerbaijan retook control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave, from Armenian forces. Russia has also canceled some exports to India.

“In some cases the Defense Ministry requisitioned the arms systems before they even left the factories,” the person said.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russia’s state-owned military export firm JSC Rosoboronexport responded to questions.
Russia and Kyiv have been fighting for occupation of the city of Kupyansk, Ukraine, since the start of the war. Photo: Serhii Korovayny for The Wall Street Journal

Russia has also asked Pakistan for at least four Mi-35M engines from helicopters that it previously sold it. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry denied it had been approached by Moscow.

Moscow has asked Brazil to buy back 12 engines from Mi-35M military-helicopter engines that Brasília decommissioned last year. A Brazilian Foreign Ministry official said the country refused, in line with its policy against sending arms to either side in the conflict.

Belarus, one of Russia’s staunchest allies, sold six Mi-26 heavy-transport helicopter engines back to Moscow, the person said. Belarus’ presidential office didn’t respond to a request for comment, though two of the people interviewed for this article said Belarus had agreed.

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, helicopters have been an integral part of Russia’s front-line forces, which in the early days of the war made them vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses. Russia lost more than 100 helicopters in the first weeks of the war.

As the front line hardened, Russia used its rotary-wing aircraft to fire laser-guided Vikhr missiles and the effective Lightweight Multipurpose Guided Missiles from behind the front line. The missiles were instrumental in Russia beating back Ukraine’s offensive over the summer and were used in greater numbers in Moscow’s attempt to retake the Donbas town of Avdiivka several weeks ago in the country’s first offensive operations in months.

“The operational tempo of Russia’s rotary-wing fleet is quite high, especially since the start of the Ukrainian offensive, when they were used along with trenches and mines to slow down the advances,” said Muzyka.

—Luciana Magalhaes, Gordon Lubold, Saeed Shah and Chao Deng contributed to this article.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-turns-to-longtime-arms-customers-to-boost-war-arsenal-5111bac4

Vampiro a écrit:

Je ne sais pas si vous en avez déjà entendu parler, mais en Occident il est beaucoup question du "génocide" ukrainien de la Grande famine ukrainienne de 1933. Cette dame revient sur ces événements et l'instrumentalisation qui en est faite.

Il y a toujours des négationistes malheureusement, la famine existe, en Ukraine et dans le reste de l'URSS, mais il est aussi prouvé qu'elle est particulièrement et intentionnellement agravée en Ukraine, regardes juste les chiffres des prélèvement sur récoltes par le pouvoir stalinien. Et c'est un marxiste qui te le dit, Staline était une belle ordure.

20 pays sont désormais connectés au SPFS...la liaison avec le CIPS Chinois devrait aussi se faire sous peu