Tensions russo-ukrainiens

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BELLINGCAT a écrit:

Investigating The Kerch Strait Incident

On the 25th of November, Ukraine and Russia were involved in one of the most serious confrontations of the almost 5-year long conflict between the two countries. Russian Navy vessels first rammed and then later fired on and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels, marking the first time Russian-flagged military units had officially attacked those of Ukraine.

Like many events in this conflict, both sides put out conflicting stories of what happened, as well as statements accusing the other of breaching international law. But what can we say for certain happened?

The First Confrontation

The opening act of the clash between the two navies began around 07:00 Russian time. Three Ukrainian Navy vessels – the Gyurza-M-class artillery boats ‘Berdyansk’ and ‘Nikopol’ and the tugboat ‘Yany Kapu’ – sailed towards the Kerch Strait, aiming to transit to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. At around this time, they were intercepted by Russian Coast Guard vessels including the ‘Don’ and the ‘Izumrud’.

At this point, the clarity of the picture begins to break down. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claims that Russian vessels attempted to hail the Ukrainian ships and ask them to turn back, as they were not allowed to transit the Kerch Strait without a Russian navigator on board. The Ukrainians, for their part, claim they were illegally intercepted and had the right to free navigation through the strait.

As to what happened next, we need to analyse several primary sources. The first of these is an alleged communications intercept released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). In it, several groups of Russian naval officers discuss the events which took place. There is no specific timeframe given, and it appears that the intercept is a collection of several recordings between different people forming seven discrete conversations.



From this recording, several key pieces of information can be taken away. The first is that the Russian vessel ‘Don’ rammed the ‘Yany Kapu’ twice. Once at 07:35 at the location (44°56’00″N 36°30’08″E) and a second time at 7:44 at (44°56’06″N 36°30’05″E). The second takeaway is that Russian vessel ‘Izumrud’ was damaged in a collision with another Russian ship.

Another piece of evidence is a video showing the Russian ship ‘Don’ appearing to intentionally ram the Ukrainian tug ‘Yany Kapu’. This footage can be seen below.



From this footage, several things can be seen. First, the identity of the boat which the video was shot from can be determined from the distinctive off-set 30mm autocannon seen at 0’51” in the footage, which is also present on the preexisting photos of the ‘Don’. Second, the approximate time of day that the video was shot can also be determined. In the footage, it appears to be shortly after sunrise. According to SunCalc, sunrise on the 25th of November in this area was at 7:46. As such, the video must have been shot within around an hour after sunrise the given the relatively low position of the sun in the sky. As well, in the video, a voice (presumably that of the pilot of the ‘Don’) shouts “eight twenty-one (08:21)” immediately after the collision. It is likely this is the time of the collision and appears to converge with the timeframe suggested by the solar position.

This is further backed up by an apparently unnoticed detail in the video. In it, the tug ‘Yani Kapu’ has already sustained damage from at least two individual strikes. This would confirm that it happened after the 07:35 and 07:44 strikes mentioned in the SBU intercept video. Photos of these areas of damage, when compared to a photo of the undamaged ship taken just a day before can be seen below.

Notably, following this video, the Yani Kapu was struck at least one more time. Video released by Telekanal Zvezda shot an hour or two later in the morning, when the sun was higher in the sky, shows that the tug has sustained additional damage to its port stern, which was not present either in the ramming video or the image taken of the Yani Kapu on the 24th of November.

Further evidence also backs up information from the SBU intercept. Images released by Kerch.FM show damage sustained by the Russian Coast Guard ship ‘Izumrud’. The location of this damage (high on the starboard midship area) is consistent with a strike from a Russian vessel larger than the smaller Ukrainian boats. As well the long scar along the side of the ship is inconsistent with weapons damage. This fits in with the SBU tape wherein a collision between ‘Izumrud’ and another Russian vessel is discussed.

The Second Confrontation

As the day continued, Russian Coast Guard vessels continued blocking manoeuvres against the three Ukrainian ships. A large cargo vessel was used to physically block the narrow passage under the Kerch Bridge, and a separate group of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Sea of Azovwas forced to return to their base in Berdyansk.

Little information exists for what transpired over this period, however, the SBU intercept recording suggests that one of the Russian Coast Guard vessels took on a complement of 10 special forces soldiers to assist in later actions.

The aforementioned Telekanal Zvezda video also contains another piece of useful information. In the first few seconds of the video, a bulk freight ship identified as the ‘Aviona’ can be seen within a few hundred meters from one of the Ukrainian armoured artillery boats. Using ship-tracking website MarineTraffic, we can determine that the ‘Aviona’ was at anchor in the Kerch Strait in effectively the same location for the entirety of November 25. This gives us a new data point for the location of the Ukrainian ships later in the day, much further north than previous positions.

Under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which Ukraine and the Russian Federation are parties to, territorial waters extend at most 12 nautical miles (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state. Notably, this additional position near the ‘Aviona’ shows a Ukrainian vessel within not just the territorial waters of Crimea, but also mainland Russia.

It is also worth noting that Ukraine, as well as most Western countries, does not recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and by extension its territorial sea. Moreover, Ukraine has cited a 2003 agreement with Russia that denotes the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait as a shared waterway, allowing free passage.

After 18:00 local time, however, the Ukrainian ships attempted to leave the area, and return to their home port of Odessa. They were, by all accounts pursued, intercepted, fired on, and boarded. Several Ukrainian soldiers were injured and the ships were later captured by Russian Naval forces.

Both sides made attempts to assert that this clash happened either outside of Russian-claimed territorial waters (in the case of Ukraine) and inside them (in the case of Russia).

The Russian FSB released a detailed timeline of the events of the day, including a number of geographical positions in which key events occurred. These events are plotted on the map seen below.



The Russian FSB makes that point that the initial interception, as well as the warning shots, and finally the shots which hit the ‘Berdyansk’ all took place within the ‘territorial waters of Russia’. This does not align with the location data they themselves released.

Specifically, the most serious incident – the shooting of the ‘Berdyansk’ – took place at 44°51.3’N, 36° 23.4 E (notated in the official release as Ш=44° 51’3 СШ, Д=36° 23’4 ВД). We know the FSB is using decimal arc-minutes in their notation, rather than arc-minutes and arc-seconds, due to the fact that an earlier location is given as (Ш=44° 53’47 СШ, Д=36° 25’76 ВД) something which would be impossible under a degrees and minutes notation style – specifically the final digits ‘76’.


As can be seen in the above image, the FSB data, if correct, shows that the ‘Berdyansk’ was 22.72km from the coast of Crimea, and more than 500m outside of Russian-claimed territorial waters when it came under fire.

Ukraine for its part provided less detailed information regarding key locations during this period.


Unfortunately, while Ukraine asserts that its ships were outside of the 12 nautical mile UNCLOS limit, even if their location data is taken at face value, it is inconclusive. This is due to the fact that they only provided 4-digit locations. Such locations do not pinpoint a single point but rather a rectangle approximately 1.8 km on the N-S axis and 1.3km on the E-W axis. Given this level of imprecision, the positions could be potentially within, or outside of the 12 nautical mile limit. Ukraine likely does have access to more precise location data, and could make this public if it wishes to add clarity.

Additionally, an alleged mayday call released by Ukrainian publication Liga Novosti from one of the three Ukrainian vessels includes the audio “How many wounded do you have? I need help! I need help! Mayday! Mayday!” followed by the coordinates N 44° 51’ 00’’, E 36° 23’ 04’’. This location is southwest of the position Russia claims it fired on the ‘Berdyansk’, and is also outside of the 12 nautical mile limit, and thus in international waters.

As for the details of the confrontation itself, we again fall back on statements by both Ukraine and Russia, in lieu of primary sources. Interestingly, neither country’s statements contradict the other aside from their positions relative to the territorial waters line. Both sides claim that Russian forces shot at and crippled the ‘Berdyansk’, capturing it and the tug Yani Kapu shortly after. Initially, the Ukrainian military claimed that both the ‘Berdyansk’ and the ‘Nikopol’ ships had been damaged, before clarifying at 23:20 (Russian time) that only the ‘Berdyansk’ was hit.



Photos of the Ukrainian ships in port in Kerch post-capture show many small calibre bullet holes in the ‘Berdyansk’ as well as at least one large calibre hole in its bridge. This larger hit especially confirms that Russian forces were not shooting to disable the vessel, but rather to harm the crew. The FSB release itself notes that the Russian Coast Guard vessel ‘Izumrud’ issued threats to the ‘Berdyansk’ that “weapons to kill” would be used if the vessel did not comply with its request to stop.




Summary:

From this information, several things are made clear. Firstly, based on geolocated video footage, Ukrainian ships did enter Russian-claimed territorial waters, both that of Crimea and mainland Russia in the Kerch Strait. Ukraine nonetheless argues this was legally permissible due to the 2003 agreement between the two countries. Secondly, we can say that the Ukrainian tug ‘Yani Kapu’ was intentionally rammed at least four times over a period of at least an hour. Thirdly, based on information provided by the Russian FSB which appears to incriminate themselves, the shooting of the ‘Berdyansk’ most likely took place in international waters.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/11/30/investigating-the-kerch-strait-incident/

Selon le Washington post émis par de haut responsable américain , en cause l'adhésion à l’Otan qui est la ligne rouge auquel Moscou veut des garantie sécuritaire au delà de ses frontières

https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/ukraine-la-russie-preparerait-une-offensive-impliquant-175-000-soldats-04-12-2021-2455261_24.php

Une offensive militaire russe est à exclure les conséquences seraient plus que désastreuse pour tout le monde la russie en premier. Poutine gardera un niveau de tensions élevées afin d’avoir des garanties.....il est fort a ce jeu.

Les russes prennent la menace des drone très au sérieu tout en se "blindant" de ce côté

Citation :

Drones Could Tip Balance In Ukraine War — For Russia

Drones might tip the balance in a potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but not in the way that many analysts seem to think. Anyone expecting David vs. Goliath might be disappointed.

In the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Azeri’s Turkish-supplied TB2 Bayraktar drones ripped through Armenia tanks and other vehicles with laser-guided missiles. The Armenian air defenses, supplied by Russia, were helpless to stop them, and TB2s inflicted similarly heavy losses on Russian hardware in Syria and Libya.

So, with Ukraine fielding newly-acquired TB2s from Turkey — and using them in action against militants — we see comments like Francis Fukuyama’s recent tweet that “Ukraine’s use of Turkish drones could be a complete game-changer.”

Ukraine also fields an array of small tactical drones, some with lethal payloads. The local drone industry was kickstarted by the 2014 conflict, when universities, hobbyists and small businesses provided drones direct to front-line units.

The standout product was Althon Avia’s A1 Fury, a tactical reconnaissance drone which remains in service in upgraded form. But diversity is still the word. The latest catalog from Ukraine’s UKRINMASH arms company lists 23 different types of drone, plus 13 more in development, and it claims its drone industry is world-class.

On top if this there are loitering munitions or kamikaze drones. These range from the seemingly sophisticated ST-55 Silent Thunder and KB Robotics' planned LUACC Swarm Launcher, which can put 36 lethal drones into the air in quick succession, to a number of home-brew efforts and grenade-dropping multicopters.

Russia, however, may be ready for them.

Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian defense scene, and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS told me that the Russians appear bullish about their ability tackle the drone threat from Ukraine.

“Russian military recognizes the Turkish TB2 drone as a force multiplier for the Ukrainian forces, but at the same time the MoD contends that its more advanced EW [electronic warfare], radar detection and air defense systems can spot and neutralize this drone without it posing a threat to the forces on the ground,” says Bendett.

Nor is it a coincidence that the makes of the Pantsir mobile air defense vehicle just announced that it has been upgraded, in particular to deal with attack drones. The Pantsir is a tracked vehicle which combines eight missile launchers with a pair of 30mm rapid-fire cannon. They suffered badly in Syria, but lessons were apparently learned.

Observers have also recently noticed Russian tanks near the border with ‘field expedient’ armor add-ons, welded metal cages over the turrets to deflect or prematurely detonate missiles from above.

Bendett notes that the Russians now have some years’ experience against the smaller drones that have been deployed in and around Donbas.

“The Russian military intends to use a combination of EW [electronic warfare] and air defense systems to neutralize them,” says Bendett. “The Russian MOD is conducting this type of counter-drone training on a regular basis to make sure its soldiers know how to tackle such a threat.”

The Russians then believe they can blunt the edge of any Ukrainian drone onslaught. Certainly they have a vastly better organized, equipped and trained air defense system that the Armenians.

But perhaps the greatest impact will not be from Ukrainian drones, but Russian ones.

In the last conflict Russia used drones to rapidly find, locate and direct artillery fire onto Ukrainian positions. Sighting a drone often indicated the imminent arrival of massive rocket barrage, sometimes with devastating effect.

“In a three minute period… a Russian fire strike wiped out two mechanized battalions with a combination of top-attack munitions and thermobaric warheads,” Potomac Foundation president Phillip Karber told the AUSA conference in 2015.

Since then Russia has improved co-ordination between its drones and artillery forces, building up combat experience in Syria.

“The Russian military drone capability continues to evolve as part of the reconnaissance-strike and reconnaissance fire contours,” says Bendett. “Besides Syria, the MOD is constantly training across Russia in multiple drills and exercises that involve different UAV classes in ISR and combat roles.”

Bendett notes that Russia now fields a wider range of more capable drones than before, including the Orion, Forpost and Orlan-10, which are capable of carrying out reconnaissance at medium and long range. These could be used to locate targets for batteries of Smerch rocket launchers – a single launcher can blanket an area of over a hundred acres with cluster bombs from forty miles away. This is not precise fire, but it is deadly.

Repeated strikes could rapidly wear down Ukrainian defenses at strategic points and decimate any reinforcements attempting to join the battle. By enabling the Russian artillery to see first and strike first, these drones could shape the war.

The Russians may also field armed versions of the Forpost and other drones. And the Ukrainians are not the only ones with kamikaze drones or loitering munitions. The Russians have already experimentally fielded Lancet and Cub attack drones.

“They were tested in Syria and the MOD said its forces will be the first recipients of this technology before they are offered for export,” says Bendett.

The Lancet-1 is a hand-launched propeller-driven drone which can fly for thirty minutes looking for targets, diving at over 70 mph with an explosive warhead.

Such drones may prove highly effective against an unprepared opposition, especially if they follow the Russian artillery doctrine of massed fire. This is a new type of warfare, and it is anyone’s guess how well Ukraine would deal with such assaults.

Drones will play a significant role in future wars, and a potential Ukraine-Russia conflict could see heavy use of drones on both sides. But do not expect a simple David vs. Goliath battle: Goliath has a sling too this time, and plenty of sling stones.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/12/02/how-drones-could-tip-balance-in-ukraine-russia-conflict/?sh=1daad31b275b

Du coup l'Ukraine n'a plus rien à craindre  
Sanctions like none before et small arms and ammunitions et Joe a réglé le problème en deux heures...

https://korii.slate.fr/tech/russie-ukraine-rafale-mirage-2000d-interception-su-27-mer-noire-renseignement-electronique#xtor=RSS-2

Korii a écrit:

Oups: un Rafale et un Mirage interceptés par deux Su-27 au-dessus de la mer Noire
Ça arrive, mais c'est chaud. Surtout en ce moment.

Repéré par Thomas Burgel sur Zone Militaire

09/12/2021 à 6h51

Citation :

Le chef d’état-major russe prévient : toute tentative de Kiev de régler la question du Donbass par la force sera « réprimée »

La suite des évènements dira si l’échange qu’a eu le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, avec son homologue, Joe Biden, aura effectivement permis de faire baisser la tension au sujet de l’Ukraine. Mais cela ne semble pas être le cas pour le moment.


Ainsi, le premier a de nouveau critiqué l’expansion de l’Otan aux frontières de la Russie ainsi que l’aspiration de Kiev à rejoindre l’espace euro-atlantique. Une ligne rouge pour le chef du Kremlin. Quant au second, il a assuré, le 8 décembre, avoir prévenu son homologue russe qu’une invasion de l’Ukraine par ses troupes, comme celles-ci semblent s’y préparer, aurait des « conséquences économiques comme il n’en a jamais vu ». Quoi qu’il en soit, les deux responsables sont convenus de laisser le soin à leurs conseillers respectifs de conduite des « consultations » sur ces « sujet sensibles ».



En attendant, Moscou ne cesse de mettre la pression sur Kiev au sujet du Donbass, région du sud-est de l’Ukraine où les forces gouvernementales affrontent des séparatistes pro-russes depuis 2014. « Pour les personnes vivant dans les républiques [autoproclamées et non reconnues, ndlr] de Louhansk et de Donetsk, il y a des menaces constantes, créées quand des unités militaires se déplacent à proximité de leur territoire », souligna ainsi M. Poutine, lors d’un forum d’investisseurs, la semaine passée.


Son ministre des Affaires étrangères, Segueï Lavrov avait ensuite enchaîné en affirmant que l’Ukraine était une « menace directe ». Et de prévenir : « Nous ne pouvons pas exclure que le régime de Kiev puisse se lancer dans une aventure militaire. […] Si l’Occident [l’Otan, ndlr] n’est pas capable de dissuader l’Ukraine, mais s’il essaye au contraire de l’encourager, alors nous prendrons toutes les mesures nécessaires pour assurer notre sécurité ».


Puis, plus tard, la porte-parole de la diplomatie russe, Maria Zakharova, accusa les forces ukrainiennes d’avoir doublé ses effectifs et ses capacités militaires à proximité du Donbass. Ce que Kiev n’a depuis jamais confirmé. Et, ce 9 décembre, elle a renouvelé ses accusations.


« Les négociations sur une résolution pacifique [du conflit dans le Donbass, ndlr] ont pratiquement atteint une impasse. […]
Avec le soutien des pays de l’Otan qui injectent des armes dans le pays, Kiev renforce son contingent sur la ligne de contact dans le Donbass », a-t-elle martelé.


Depuis que les soupçons sur un éventuel coup de force contre l’Ukraine ne cessent de s’affirmer, le chef d’état-major des forces russes, le général Valery Gerasimov, était resté silencieux. Et il vient de sortir de sa réserve.


« Les pays de l’Otan accordent une attention excessive aux mouvements de troupes à travers le territoire russe. Le redéploiement d’unités pendant l’entraînement au combat est une pratique courante pour les forces armées de tout État. L’activité militaire est exercée sur le territoire national et les informations qui circulent dans les médias sur une invasion russe prétendument imminente de l’Ukraine sont un mensonge », a déclaré le général Gerasimov, ce 9 décembre.


Cependant, a-t-il aussi observé, la « livraison d’hélicoptères, de drones et d’avions à l’Ukraine pousse celle-ci à prendre des mesures brusques et dangereuses ». Sauf que, récemment, hormis les drones de Bayraktar TB2 de facture turque, les forces ukraniennes n’ont pas reçu les matériels décrits par le chef d’état-major russe…


Quoi qu’il en soit, a-t-il prévenu à son tour, « toute provocation des autorités ukrainiennes pour résoudre les problèmes du Donbass par la force sera réprimée ». C’est une manière d’annoncer la couleur...


http://www.opex360.com/2021/12/09/le-chef-detat-major-russe-previent-toute-tentative-de-kiev-de-regler-la-question-du-donbass-par-la-force-sera-reprimee/?fbclid=IwAR00gryScneGG-1ADF7AQuA2TF2rY4QxVnO8ffm4ENW_iHitJs4C9iTu-io

https://defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-buk-air-defense-system-near-ukrainian-border/

La Russie envoie des système de missile sol air buk automoteur et d'autre grande quantité de matériel russe à bord de train vers la frontière ukrainienne et augmente la concentration de troupes estimée à 122 000 par les renseignements miliataire ukrainien

On va clairement devoir sortir les popcorn prochainement

Les américains protègent leur Empire , encore et toujours et n'acceptent pas de se faire grignoter des parts de puissance mondiale incontesté, ils gardent une stratégie agressive digne de la Guerre Froide, encerclement géographique de la Russie et attaques multi formes sur la Chine, dernière en date boycott diplomatique des JO d'hiver. Ils ont du souffle ces Yankees quand même, sans pitié, mentalité de cowboy.

Ils veulent être et rester les seuls maîtres du monde. Ça va faire des étincelles dans le futur, quand la Chine voudra s'imposer comme la 1 ere puissance militaire et économique, et la Russie qui continuera à jouer sa partition de puissance faible et ses capacités de nuisances ici et là, avec ses énormes réserves de gaz et son appétit récent pour l'Afrique.

D'autre sources sur Twitter disent que les l'ukraine envoie de l'artillerie lourde au front du dombass , ça sent pas bon cette histoire

Moi je veux voir les Bayraktar à l'œuvre contre les Russes faites une guerre nom d'une pipe !

FAR SOLDIER a écrit:

Moi je veux voir les Bayraktar à l'œuvre contre les Russes faites une guerre nom d'une pipe !

Faut pas faire d'illusions, si la Russie fait jouer son aviation, c'est game over pour les drones ukrainiens et leurs chasseurs aussi.
C'est pas la merde qu'ils vendent à côté, ont aura l'occase de voir sur le terrain le matériel russe d'origine

La Russie a énormément développé sa composante drone (frappe d'artillerie guidé par drone etc)... les Russes sont plus en avant que les européens dans ce domaine

La question pour régler ce problème c'est une région fédérale ou autonomie mais la Russie veut pas en entendre parler puisque y a la Crimée derrière , il y aura de très forte sanctions européennes et américaines notamment sur les transactions monétaire internationale et de retirer la Russie de l'accord si la Russie envahit l'Ukraine, en tout cas La Russie cherche un cassus belli pour intervenir...

Biden vient de soutenir publiquement l'aspiration de l'Ukraine à devenir membre de l'OTAN.

Les US comme sanctions financière qui leur reste c'est exclure les Russes du système SWIFT ce qui n'aura pas que peu d'effet vu que le SPFS est opérationnel..Par contre c'est un mauvais calcul ce que fait cette administration inclure l'Ukraine au sein de l'OTAN est un casus-belli pour les russes Poutine avait expliqué que cette inclusion mettrait Moscou à moins de 6mn des missiles US, il ne restera pas les mains croisés..Cette administration raisonne toujours comme si on était à l'ère de la guerre froide entre l'AUKUS et sa...

Ça sera toujours difficile pour les transaction internationaux c'est seulement utiliser en dernier recours, il y aura pas d'otan en Ukraine tant que le dombass et la Crimée sera pas réglée sous négociation , pas sur que ça se règle puisque poutine aurait déclarer que s ils que se passait au dombass etait un génocide
https://www.google.com/amp/s/francais.rt.com/international/93513-ukraine-poutine-compare-situation-dans-donbass-genocide/amp

Je sais pas si ceci est en relation avec les tensions actuelles mais je pense qu'il y'a de grandes chances que sa le soit..

En tout cas c'est une excellente nouvelle pour la Libye et les Libyens.

Un avis assez intéressant de Xavier Moreau sur la situation entre les Russes et les Ukrainiens la vidéo est à voir à partir de la minute 5:10...Pour rappel Xavier Moreau est pro-Russe, c'est aussi un gaulliste et un ancien officier para saint-cyrien ..