Guerre Israël-Gaza Octobre 2023

Non, 1 blessé après emergency landing.
Et en plus, à priori l' hélico a eu une panne critique

A priori les U.S nuancent leur soutien a Israël
Ils ont aussi promis une aide humanitaire à Gaza.

Une opération terrestre massive semble s'éloigner..au profit d'engagement très cibles ( tunnels etc )

Les négociations au Qatar avec l'Iran.
Et les va-et-vient de blinken entre l Arabie saoudite et les Emirats ( pour faire pression sur l Egypte) .
Quelqu'un parle ou négocie avec les palestiniens le Fatah  ???
Ils ne sont plus maîtres de leur destin .
C'est juste des pions.
On peut reprocher plein de choses à Yassir Arafat mais il n'a jamais était un pion .

Le mieux et de rester loin de tout ça.
Il y a rien de bon pour nous laba et on a assez donné.

The Economist

Citation :

In the wake of the September 11th attacks, George W. Bush’s presidential approval rating surged from 50% to 90%. Israelis seem far less forgiving. In a poll of 620 Jews conducted on October 11th by Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University, 95% of respondents expressing an opinion said that the attack on October 7th by Palestinian militants represented a failure by the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. Three-quarters of those with an opinion want him to resign once the war ends.

Another survey published on October 13th in Maariv, an Israeli newspaper, found that Mr Netanyahu’s Likud Party would finish a distant second if elections were held today. Voters would prefer to have Benny Gantz, a former defence minister, as prime minister by 48% to 29%. Mr Netanyahu has always campaigned as the leader best able to provide security. Now that at least 1,300 Israelis have been killed on his watch, that reputation may be impossible to restore.



http://espresso.economist.com/f7a39d7f475d5bab53e733ce5d5519f7

mais sans vids d'impact , ca semble que le brouillage israélien sera trop puissant pour eux. Après tout, les Israéliens possèdent des dizaines de systèmes anti-drones, du Rafael Drone Dome à Elbit Redrone et d'autres.

https://twitter.com/almohadravid/status/1713507219713425686/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1713507219713425686&currentTweetUser=almohadravid

Le résumé est parfait

The Economist

Citation :

A dusty, scuffed slab of concrete is the last hope that many Gazans have of escaping the nightmare which will accompany Israel's coming.ground assault. Cut off from electricity, food imports and water, and under constant bombardment, more than 2,000 people have already been killed and nearly half the population displaced. Gaza's inhabitants are flooding roads to the south after an Israeli warning to clear the north. Yet the Rafah gate, which punctures the 11km-long wall separating southern Gaza from Egypt, and is the only non-Israeli route out of the territory, has been closed since October 7th, when Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel.

America is reportedly trying to get its own citizens out through the gate; many in the region hope that, to avoid a humanitarian disaster, Mr Sisi might change his mind and allow refugees to flee Gaza. On October 15th Antony Blinken will arrive in Cairo on a last-minute addition to the American secretary of state’s tour of the Middle East. Could a potential rescue for Egypt’s crisis-stricken economy offer foreign diplomats a means of influence?

Egypt has done such a deal before. In 1991, three months after the Gulf war, America and other Western countries let Egypt off the hook for $10bn of borrowing, which represented a quarter of its external debt at the time. This was also a reward for a geopolitical favour. As other Arab countries amassed troops and watched from Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarak, then Egypt’s president, was one of the first leaders to send his armed forces in to join America’s fight against Iraq.

Once again, Egypt’s economy is crumbling. Annual inflation is at 38%, its highest ever; the Egyptian pound is plummeting, as the central bank prints cash to foot the government’s excessive bills from bread subsidies and support for state-owned companies. The imf, which agreed to a $3bn bail-out last December, has refused to hand over the latest two instalments, because it lacks faith its lending will be repaid. From cash injections to cover Cairo’s budget deficit to a deal on imports, there is no shortage of inducements that other countries could offer.

If foreign diplomats are to succeed, there are three challenges they must overcome. One is that Mr Sisi may not be desperate just yet. Egypt’s economy may be struggling, but the government is not in immediate danger of default, as was the case in 1991. It has few big payments to make until 2024 and its $30bn of foreign reserves are sufficient to cover four months of imports.

Another complication is that Egypt currently owes America next to nothing. Most of the country’s borrowing comes from private banks and local-currency bonds, meaning that America could not offer to whittle down its debts. Some diplomats hope that Mr Blinken will instead speed along funds from the imf, or even shave off some of the $16bn Cairo owes the multilateral lender. Yet the fund only offers modest hand-outs, limiting the attractiveness of such an approach. That leaves America one option: pumping new cash into Egypt, which would find opposition in Washington.

A second challenge concerns the countries to which Egypt does owe money. More than half of the country’s external borrowing, and almost all its foreign reserves, come from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Each has provided billions of dollars in deposits at Egypt’s central bank; recent packages include $5bn from Saudi Arabia and $3bn from Qatar in November last year. This type of lending can be withdrawn at short notice, and such a withdrawal would be big enough to drain Egypt of dollars. As a result, the Gulf, unlike America, does have leverage with Cairo. Any deals would therefore need the involvement of countries in the region.

Finally, Egypt needs reassurance that it would not be left to deal with Gazan refugees on its own. The worry about letting hundreds of thousands across the border, who will need education, health care and housing, is that they will stay. There is huge uncertainty about when Israel would let Gazans return and what will be left when they did. In Jordan and Lebanon, which took hundreds of thousands from Palestine in the 1940s and Syria in the 2010s, refugees have become a painful political issue. Mr Blinken and Gulf countries would need to convince Egyptian officials that other countries would be willing to pay for, and perhaps even house, some of those who make their way through the Rafah gate. Otherwise Egypt’s economy would struggle to cope, something of which Mr Sisi is all too aware.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/14/can-egypt-be-persuaded-to-accept-gazan-refugees

Une délégation marocaine est au Qatar depuis ce matin, avec probablement bourita asa tête

Disposons-nous de leviers de pression sur le Hamas ?

L'Iran, en fournissant une aide militaire, semble en avoir. Le Qatar, en agissant comme un soutien financier, également. L’Égypte, de par son contrôle sur le seul point de sortie du territoire, peut aussi exercer une influence.

Un déblocage..?

atlas a écrit:

Un déblocage..?

J’espère parce que ce n’est plus une guerre, c’est un genocide.

Personnellement je suis avec la normalisation des relations avec israel mais pas au point de fermer les yeux et les laisser transformer la démographie de la palestine.
Ce boucher de Bibi ne doit pas être reçu au Maroc. J’ai confiance dans notre diplomatie.

ça explique en quelque sorte tout ce qui s'est passé au cours des dernières 72 heures

@Winners : Bibi n'a de toute façon aucune chance de rester au pouvoir après la guerre

Ça négocie en coulisse.

Les occidentaux n’ont surtout pas intérêt que la région explose. Politiquement et économiquement l’Europe et les USA ne pourront pas encaisser le choc inflationniste supplémentaire.

Les électeurs puniront les dirigeants lors des prochaines élections.

Ce qu’Israel veut faire n’est ni plus ni moins un holocaust et c’est pas jouable.

De plus militairement rien ne garantit la victoire d’Israël si elle fait face à 200 000 miliciens endurcis par des décennies de guerre au MO…. Le prix à payer et le coup politique sera énorme.

Enfin politiquement Bibi n’échappera pas à sa responsabilité une fois le tout fini.

elite17 a écrit:

@Winners : Bibi n'a de toute façon aucune chance de rester au pouvoir après la guerre

Je m’excuse mais un de ses buts de cette guerre et effectivement de consolider son pouvoir et renforcer sa coalition gouvernementale

elite17 a écrit:

@Winners : Bibi n'a de toute façon aucune chance de rester au pouvoir après la guerre

Je m’excuse mais un de ses buts de cette guerre et effectivement de consolider son pouvoir et renforcer sa coalition gouvernementale

Bonjour.

Comme vous savez, l'armée israélienne aurait reporté l'opération terrestre dans gaza vues les conditions de la météo à gaza.

Et selon les données météorologiques, les ciels de gaza vont être nuageux de lundi jusqu'à jeudi, ça veut dire que l'attaque va commencer bientôt le week-end prochain.