Crise barrage de la Renaissance : Egypte vs Éthiopie

Rappel du premier message :

Le MAE Éthiopien annonce le démarrage du remplissage du barrage dès le mois prochain... Sissi demande à l'armée de se préparer...

Éthiopie: Le PM éthiopien menace l'Égypte et la Somalie: "Quiconque menace notre pays, nous le détruirons militairement et lui apporterons la honte". pic.twitter.com/yHem9e1MBn

— Restitutor Orientis (@restitutorII) September 8, 2024

Abiy really doesn't know when to shut up, trying to rile up Sisi and his ego. Ethiopia can barely hold its own in tigre and trying to pick a fight with a country solely running to feed the army (plus heavily pumped with US aid for decades)

Better find a peaceful resolution or keep the status quo u til they grow in strength in the next decade

Citation :

 Ethiopia denounces Egyptian threats in letter to UNSC


Ashenafi Endale  |  September 9, 2024

Ethiopia has urged the UN Security Council to “take note of Egypt’s repeated threat to use force against Ethiopia” as tensions between the two countries reach new heights following another round of GERD filling and developments in Somalia.

Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie (Amb.), has written the letter to the Council on September 6, 2024, in response to a letter five days prior from Egypt rejecting Ethiopia’s fifth and latest round filling the GERD.

Tesfaye Yilma, Ethiopia’s UN representative, delivered the letter to Samuel Zbogar (Amb.), Slovenia’s rep. and UNSC president for September 2024.

“Ethiopia, consistent with the Charter of the United Nations, will be steadfast in defending its national development projects putting the country firmly on the path of socio-economic progress and prosperity,” reads Ethiopia’s letter.

It rejects the “litany of unfounded allegations” forwarded to the Council by Egypt and calls for bilateral and regional mechanisms to resolve differences.

- Advertisement -

The last round of trilateral negotiations featuring Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt wrapped up in December 2023 with no agreement after Egypt declared it would no longer take part in the talks despite President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi pledging to do so during a July visit to Cairo from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD).

“This is yet another process Egypt has obstructed in addition to the work of the Tripartite National Committee, the work of the National Independent Scientific Research Group, and the AU-led talks during the chairmanships of South Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo,” reads the letter.

Taye accuses Egypt of holding a vested interest in perpetuating its self-claimed monopoly on the Nile River and obstructing a mutually beneficial outcome to the dispute.

“Ethiopia, on the other hand, demonstrated commitment to all the negotiations to reach a mutually acceptable outcome. Despite Egypt’s continued violations, Ethiopia exhaustively implemented the Declaration of Principles on the GERD,” reads the letter. “Ethiopia also continued  to exhibit  good neighborliness   by taking  extra measures  that ensure maximum  flow of water downstream.”

Ethiopia has also requested Egypt to ratify the Cooperative Framework Agreement on the Nile River Basin, which has been submitted to the AU.

The letter comes as Egypt gains a foothold in the Horn as part of a military agreement with Somalia, which saw Egyptian arms and troops land in Mogadishu recently.

There are also reports that the Somali government is pushing to have Egyptian troops replace Ethiopian peacekeeping forces when a new AU-led mission kicks off in January.

“Egypt must abandon its aggressive approach, and unreasonable demands, and commit to the accepted principles of international law. Ethiopia is ready to resolve differences over the Nile River through genuine negotiation,” reads the letter.


https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41815/  

Somalie

Dans un contexte de tensions régionales, l’Égypte a livré des armes à la Somalie. En effet, l’Éthiopie, avec qui le Caire est en crise, a réalisé un accord avec le territoire séparatiste du Somaliland pour un accès à la Mer Rouge. pic.twitter.com/ZJAfyhLEqZ

— Cartes du Monde (@CartesDuMonde) September 23, 2024

Breaking : Ethiopian officials warn Egypt there will be “consequences” for deploying troops in Somalia . pic.twitter.com/EAvhrTU4TN

— Amhara News Service (@Amhara_News) September 24, 2024

Somalie: Alors que le monde tourne son regard vers le Liban, l'Égypte continue d'armer l'armée somalienne contre l'Ethiopie et le Somaliland. Une frégate égyptienne est stationnée en face de la capitale Mogadiscio.

La Turquie envoie des navires de guerre avec un navire de… pic.twitter.com/ogZc7FeRvn

— Restitutor Orientis (@restitutorII) September 24, 2024

GÉOPOLITIQUE

L'Égypte subit un nouveau revers diplomatique dans le conflit du Nil avec l'entrée en vigueur d'un traité ratifié par 6 pays en amont, fragilisant sa position historique sur le fleuve, considéré comme un enjeu vital pour Le Caire.https://t.co/AaG6l3xksp

— Projet FOX (@ProjetFOX) October 22, 2024

Les Ehtiopiens vont bientot savoir pourquoi les Misris achetent toutes ces armes...

BennyBlanco a écrit:

Les Ehtiopiens vont bientot savoir pourquoi les Misris achetent toutes ces armes...

VRAI

L'Egypte cherche à créer une guerre regional en implicant la Somalie et l'Erythrée ... pari très risqué mais elle ne lachera jamais l'Éthiopie créant de facto une lutte pour le controle régionnale.

Le gros avantage de l'Egypte c'est son accès à la mer qui lui assure un quasi couloir logistique.

Ils vont négocier l'installation de chasseur / soldats / FS qui pourront intervenir en appuie aux somalien et aux Eythréen.

La grande question c'est est ce que ces pays (Somalie / Érythrée) accepteront d'être entrainer dans une guerre.

La Somalie je comprendrai puisqu'elle a son Polisario qui a réussi mais l'Érythrée ???

L Erythree peut justement prendre sa revanche sur l'Ethiopie qui l'as vaincu lors de la guerre 98-2000 et ca peut donner une légitimité au president erythréen qui reigne sans partage sur le pays depuis l'independance et qui a instaurer un service militaire le plus dure qui existe sur terre et la situation économique est compliqué

Citation :

 Egypt-Ethiopia hostilities are playing out in the Horn – the risk of new proxy wars is high

Publié: 17 octobre 2024, 10:10

AuteurEndalcachew Bayeh
Lecturer and Researcher, Bahir Dar University

Egypt recently deepened its involvement in the war-weary Horn of Africa by arming Somalia and deploying its troops in the embattled country. To Ethiopia’s growing alarm, Egypt is also set to join the multinational force supporting the Somali army against the jihadist threat by al-Shabaab. Egypt’s potentially destabilising presence in the region is seen a direct consequence of Ethiopia’s port agreement with breakaway Somaliland, which Somalia took as a direct affront. Endalcachew Bayeh, a political scholar with a focus on the Horn of Africa, sets out the risks and the path to de-escalation.

What do we know about Egypt’s entry into Somalia and the theatre of conflict in the Horn?

Egypt’s arrival in the Horn of Africa can be traced back to Ethiopia’s quest for a dedicated port under its control. Ethiopia is the world’s largest landlocked country by population and has relied exclusively on the port of Djibouti since the outbreak of the Ethiopia-Eritrea war (1998-2000).

Ethiopia has been exploring alternative access points. This led to the announcement on 1 January 2024 that it had struck a port deal with Somaliland. Ethiopia agreed to recognise the breakaway republic in exchange for a naval base on Somaliland’s coast.

The announcement sparked a diplomatic rift with Somalia, which viewed the deal as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Somalia still considers self-declared Somaliland part of its territory.
.
Amid the turmoil, Somalia courted Egypt as a regional patron to counter Ethiopia. This aligned well with Egypt’s increasing interest in finding a military partner along Ethiopia’s border.

Egypt is a longstanding rival of Ethiopia. Recently, it threatened to go to war over Ethiopia’s massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which it sees as a threat to its survival.

Egypt deployed military forces in Somalia following its defence deal with Mogadishu in August 2024. It also plans to deploy 5,000 soldiers as part of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia. The mission is set to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, in which Ethiopia is a main player.

Ethiopia’s agreement to recognise Somaliland and the friction with Somalia have brought its old enemy, Egypt, to its doorstep.

How have Egypt-Ethiopia hostilities added to regional tensions?

Soon after Egypt’s deployment in Somalia, Ethiopia formalised its recognition of Somaliland. It also sent an ambassador to the capital, Hargeisa. This made it the first nation to officially acknowledge Somaliland’s independence. The two are also rushing to turn their memorandum of understanding into a binding bilateral treaty.

Somaliland ordered the closure of the Egyptian Cultural Library in Hargeisa.

Eritrea, for a time a key ally of Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in the fight against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, is now at odds with Addis Ababa. And, in response to the recent tensions in the region, Eritrea is strengthening its ties with Egypt and Somalia. A recent meeting of the three has created a united front against Ethiopia.

In Somalia, Ethiopia plays a stabilising role. Somalia now demands that Ethiopia should end its involvement. That could open the way for militant groups and keep Somalia unstable. This is even more likely to happen if Egypt focuses on its competition with Ethiopia rather than Somalia’s stability.

In addition, Somalis have longstanding territorial claims over parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. Instability can create fertile ground for groups like Al-Shabaab, which aims to include these territories in an Islamic state.

Finally, tensions have risen between Djibouti and Somaliland over the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal. This is because the agreement will almost certainly be bad for Djibouti’s economy. Djibouti relies heavily on port revenues that are almost entirely generated from Ethiopia.

What are the risks for the region?

Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland and Egypt’s presence in Somalia come at a time of multiple regional crises. These include the strained Ethiopia-Eritrea relations, the Ethiopia-Sudan dispute over Al-Fashaga border region, and instability in Ethiopia.

This volatile environment increases the likelihood of proxy wars.

Key areas to watch are:

Sudan and Egypt: These two countries align on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue. Egypt has enhanced its security cooperation with Sudan through military support and joint exercises. Although Sudan is in turmoil, the Al-Fashaga dispute with Ethiopia remains a potential flashpoint. Egypt may take advantage of this dispute and its support for the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces to further its interests.

Instability in Ethiopia: In several regions, the government is engaged in active conflict with non-state forces. This instability creates fertile ground for Egypt to potentially support proxies against the Ethiopian government. Egypt and Somalia have already expressed the possibility of using proxy forces.

Egypt’s main motivation for intervening in the region is to control the Nile’s source or hinder Ethiopia’s use of the water. As a result, Ethiopia perceives Egypt’s presence at its doorstep as a direct security threat. This increases tensions between Egypt, Somalia and Ethiopia.

Any further destabilisation of Ethiopia would disrupt the entire region, as it shares porous borders with almost all countries in the Horn.

What are the potential avenues for de-escalation?
A promising pathway for reducing tensions in Somalia and the broader region is for the two regional powers to reconsider their strategies and exercise restraint.

Ethiopia can access the sea through Somaliland without formal recognition. This could ease tensions and would not encourage separatist movements.

For Egypt, a more constructive approach would be to limit its direct involvement in the Horn of Africa. Instead, it should address its concerns about the Ethiopian mega-dam through the United Nations, the African Union and other platforms. Historically, its unilateral actions have often been sources of tensions rather than solutions in the region.

The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development must ensure that the regional states themselves address regional issues. States must make wise decisions now to calm tensions, as no state will be spared from the spillover effects.


https://theconversation.com/egypt-ethiopia-hostilities-are-playing-out-in-the-horn-the-risk-of-new-proxy-wars-is-high-241402  

Faut les encourager là, comme eux ils encouragent une confrontation avec les dz

Wouldn't shed a tear for either. Hope they weaken each other and cause more problems for the EU; Egypt are Mounafikines and Ethiopians can't decide if they want to be a serious country or clowns with a tiermondist mindset.