Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Ven 3 Nov 2023 - 13:53
J'ai du mal à croire qu'on puisse absorber tous ces projets de gigafactories, mais c'est sûr que le port de NWM va attirer des entreprises comme Tanger Med avec les ZI/ZF... et ça va booster la région qui en a bien besoin.
Par contre Tanger Med est protégée par Ksar Sghir et son port militaire, pour NWM va falloir sortir les équipements de protection : Skylock dome, drones naval, seabreaker...
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Ven 3 Nov 2023 - 14:03
L attirance des entreprises chinoises dans le domaine des véhicules électriques pour le maroc est due à notre accord de libre échange avec les USA. Ceux ci ont imposé des barrières protectionnistes sur ce domaine et n encouragent pas l installation des chinois sur place.
Les chinois contourne cela par des pays ayant des ale avec l usa . Le maroc en fait partie. On doit absolument saisir cette opportunité
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Ven 3 Nov 2023 - 16:06
Enstone a écrit:
J'ai du mal à croire qu'on puisse absorber tous ces projets de gigafactories, mais c'est sûr que le port de NWM va attirer des entreprises comme Tanger Med avec les ZI/ZF... et ça va booster la région qui en a bien besoin.
Par contre Tanger Med est protégée par Ksar Sghir et son port militaire, pour NWM va falloir sortir les équipements de protection : Skylock dome, drones naval, seabreaker...
Militairement parlant, c’est sur que des cibles économiques sont à protéger. Cependant je pense que la stratégie que l’ont met en place en ce moment s’inspire à haut niveau de celle extrêmement réussie de la chine où elle s’est rapidement industrialisée et a enforcer son contrôle territorial grâce à sa dominance économique et qui dit économie dit budget militaire. Il est donc impératif de ramasser le plus d’intérêt économique étranger au pays pour se prémunir d’un bouclier international. Car qui voudrait bombarder une usine américaine ou chinoise? Au risque de se prendre un Iraq 2.0 dans le pire des cas. Si la guerre sort au pays, cela sera au sud car tout guerre proche de la Méditerranée verra une intervention immédiate des occidentaux pour protéger le commerce, car ont peut ordonner un blocage du détroit de Gibraltar pour cause de guerre, et ainsi blackmail les puissances à nous soutenir.
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Ven 3 Nov 2023 - 16:12
Kille24 a écrit:
Enstone a écrit:
J'ai du mal à croire qu'on puisse absorber tous ces projets de gigafactories, mais c'est sûr que le port de NWM va attirer des entreprises comme Tanger Med avec les ZI/ZF... et ça va booster la région qui en a bien besoin.
Par contre Tanger Med est protégée par Ksar Sghir et son port militaire, pour NWM va falloir sortir les équipements de protection : Skylock dome, drones naval, seabreaker...
Militairement parlant, c’est sur que des cibles économiques sont à protéger. Cependant je pense que la stratégie que l’ont met en place en ce moment s’inspire à haut niveau de celle extrêmement réussie de la chine où elle s’est rapidement industrialisée et a enforcer son contrôle territorial grâce à sa dominance économique et qui dit économie dit budget militaire. Il est donc impératif de ramasser le plus d’intérêt économique étranger au pays pour se prémunir d’un bouclier international. Car qui voudrait bombarder une usine américaine ou chinoise? Au risque de se prendre un Iraq 2.0 dans le pire des cas. Si la guerre sort au pays, cela sera au sud car tout guerre proche de la Méditerranée verra une intervention immédiate des occidentaux pour protéger le commerce, car ont peut ordonner un blocage du détroit de Gibraltar pour cause de guerre, et ainsi blackmail les puissances à nous soutenir.
Oui tu as raison mais il ne faut pas oublier le côté "psychologique" et dissuasif d'équiper le site militairement pour qu'ils y réfléchissent à 2 fois avant de tenter des choses...
Et effectivement le sud est plus "fébrile" pour l'instant, mais justement la stratégie est aussi de le développer : route express tiznit-dakhla, port de dakhla et zones franches, projets immo/hoteliers etc... dans le même esprit pour booster l'économie et donc le budget militaire et aussi attirer les intérêts économiques étrangers pour servir de bouclier
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Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Ven 3 Nov 2023 - 17:11
Compter sur les occidentaux ou autres pour te défendre.. le maroc doit compter sur lui même et investir suffisamment pour protéger ses installation névralgique lui même. Au mieux nos alliés nous soutiendront mais au pire on sera capable de faire face seule On peut rien laisser au hasard quand il s’agit de l’avenir d’un pays entier et ne surtout pas compter sur les belles paroles occidentales ou autres surtouts et on le sait certains voient dun mauvais œil le développement du maroc..
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Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Ven 3 Nov 2023 - 21:49
Il se pourrait qu'il y ait une part de vérité dans ce propos de Gégafactories. Avec la bonne stratégie, nous pourrions attirer des milliards de $ d'investissement, surtout au vu des bouleversements actuels dans les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales.
J'avais précédemment exprimé l'espoir d'installer une troisième usine automobile dans la zone industrielle du futur port de Nador Med West.
Par ailleurs, notre présence commence à être remarquée sur la scène internationale, nous passons plus sous les radars D'ailleurs, nous venons d'être mentionnés par Bloomberg !"
Citation :
These Five Countries Are Key Economic ‘Connectors’ in a Fragmenting World
Vietnam, Poland, Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia are benefiting from the reshuffling of supply chains in response to US-China tensions.
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 0:37
Zakaria a écrit:
Compter sur les occidentaux ou autres pour te défendre.. le maroc doit compter sur lui même et investir suffisamment pour protéger ses installation névralgique lui même. Au mieux nos alliés nous soutiendront mais au pire on sera capable de faire face seule On peut rien laisser au hasard quand il s’agit de l’avenir d’un pays entier et ne surtout pas compter sur les belles paroles occidentales ou autres surtouts et on le sait certains voient dun mauvais œil le développement du maroc..
Certainement, cependant penser que l'on peut faire cavalier seul contre des intérêt de grande puissance et que ce serait économiquement viable nous renvoie a l'exemple de la Libye. Le meilleur chemin resterait de jouer la mi marche entre bloc ouest et est et ainsi profiter le plus possible de la competition et garder une indépendance. Aussi, L'Ukraine a faite l'erreur de s'aligner géopolitiquement et regardez ce que ca donne quand ton adversaire est une puissance nucléaire. La pire imbécilité serait de se placer dos au mur en provoquant des ennemis que l'on ne peut pas affronter. Dans ce cas, l'armée marocaine aurait un role de puissance régionale dissuasive et le jeu diplomatique aurait la plus haute importance. L'on peut facilement voir que le support ou l'absentation des 'Gendarmes du monde' a un énorme impact sur les guerres de notre ère. Révolue est le temps ou l'on pouvait dominer son coin du monde, maintenant les US peuvent être dans ton port en moins de 12h worldwide. Si l'on planifie de faire une offensive style reprendre le sahara, il faut s'assurer du support ou de l'absentention des membres du conseil de sécurité et faire un matraquage médiatique pour mener l'opinion.
_________________ “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 1:13
Kille24 a écrit:
Zakaria a écrit:
Compter sur les occidentaux ou autres pour te défendre.. le maroc doit compter sur lui même et investir suffisamment pour protéger ses installation névralgique lui même. Au mieux nos alliés nous soutiendront mais au pire on sera capable de faire face seule On peut rien laisser au hasard quand il s’agit de l’avenir d’un pays entier et ne surtout pas compter sur les belles paroles occidentales ou autres surtouts et on le sait certains voient dun mauvais œil le développement du maroc..
Certainement, cependant penser que l'on peut faire cavalier seul contre des intérêt de grande puissance et que ce serait économiquement viable nous renvoie a l'exemple de la Libye. Le meilleur chemin resterait de jouer la mi marche entre bloc ouest et est et ainsi profiter le plus possible de la competition et garder une indépendance. Aussi, L'Ukraine a faite l'erreur de s'aligner géopolitiquement et regardez ce que ca donne quand ton adversaire est une puissance nucléaire. La pire imbécilité serait de se placer dos au mur en provoquant des ennemis que l'on ne peut pas affronter. Dans ce cas, l'armée marocaine aurait un role de puissance régionale dissuasive et le jeu diplomatique aurait la plus haute importance. L'on peut facilement voir que le support ou l'absentation des 'Gendarmes du monde' a un énorme impact sur les guerres de notre ère. Révolue est le temps ou l'on pouvait dominer son coin du monde, maintenant les US peuvent être dans ton port en moins de 12h worldwide. Si l'on planifie de faire une offensive style reprendre le sahara, il faut s'assurer du support ou de l'absentention des membres du conseil de sécurité et faire un matraquage médiatique pour mener l'opinion.
Exactement ! Pouvoir compter uniquement et seulement sur nous est assez utopique... à quoi bon tout le travail diplomatique que l'on livre depuis maintenant plusieurs années sinon ? D'autre part quand les intérêts des occidentaux (j'inclus les US) sont menacés (au travers les investissements qu'ils vont ou qu'ils consentis au Maroc), tu peux être sûr qu'ils ne vont pas laisser passer ça !
L'initiative de reprendre le Sahara doit surtout être vendue aux yeux du monde, comme étant un acte préventif pour maîtriser une situation qui pourrait créer une nouvelle zone de conflit dans les années à venir... pour neutraliser le polizbel qui est un mouvement terroriste qui ne veut que déstabiliser la région ! il faut du storytelling et bien choisir ses mots pour convaincre l'opinion.
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Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 2:13
Clairement lorsque l'on voit les exportation vers les US on fait figure de petit poussé mais au niveau des investissements dans les ER .... on fait plus que tenir tête
Citation :
These Five Countries Are Key Economic ‘Connectors’ in a Fragmenting World
Vietnam, Poland, Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia are benefiting from the reshuffling of supply chains in response to US-China tensions.
By Enda Curran, Shawn Donnan, Maeva Cousin, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen, Nguyen Xuan Quynh, Maciej Martewicz, Maya Averbuch, Brendan Murray, Annie Lee, Grace Sihombing, and Claire Jiao 2 novembre 2023 at 00:01 UTC−4 You may not have grown up playing with an Erector Set, but perhaps you had another building kit where, with patience and perhaps some parental assistance, you could bolt plastic rods together into colossal structures. The most important pieces were some of the smallest: the connectors. (They were also the quickest to disappear under the rug or into the vacuum.) Without those, you were just another frustrated mini starchitect.
We’d like to introduce you to a real-life set of connectors. That’s our name for a group of countries emerging as important links in a global economy that’s fragmenting into rival blocs. Listen to the rhetoric coming out of Washington and Beijing today, and you’ll hear a lot of “either you’re with us or against us” kind of talk. But not everyone is picking sides.
In collaboration with Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg Businessweek took a dive into trade and investment data and found five nations straddling the new geopolitical fault lines: Vietnam, Poland, Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia. As a group, these countries logged $4 trillion in economic output in 2022—more than India and almost as much as Germany or Japan. Despite their very different politics and pasts, they share an opportunistic desire to seize the economic windfall to be had by positioning themselves as new links between the US and China—or China, Europe and other Asian economies.
The five are by no means the only economies straddling divides, but their geographic location and ability to grease trade has set them up as crucial middle grounds. These guys punch above their weight: They represent 4% of global gross domestic product, yet they’ve attracted slightly over 10%, or $550 billion, of all so-called greenfield investment since 2017. (The term describes outlays for new plants, offices and other facilities by a foreign company establishing or expanding operations in another country.) All have seen their trade with the world accelerate above trend in the past five years, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics.
Economists at the Bank of International Settlements looked at data from more than 25,000 companies and found supply chains lengthening as other countries, especially in Asia, became additional stops in trade between China and the US. Companies shifting supply chains away from China are often moving production to countries whose economies are already highly integrated with China’s, such as Vietnam. Mexico, where investment by Chinese manufacturers has ticked up noticeably in recent years, is also becoming an important link in US-China trade. So it’s not so much that the US and Chinese economies are decoupling—they’re just coupling in different places.
That doesn’t mean all is well. Even if there are winners in this new era, economists warn the overall hit to global growth from the disruption to flow of investment and trade will be negative, with poor nations suffering more than rich ones. For consumers and central banks, one unpleasant side effect will be more expensive goods—hence more persistent inflation—as the shuffling of supply chains drives up production costs.
Still, the connectors are proof that talk of the end of globalization is overwrought. Goods and capital still move across borders—even more of them, in fact. —Enda Curran, Shawn Donnan and Maeva Cousin
VIETNAM: A Delicate Balance Vietnam’s role as a connector economy has been supercharged in the years since former US President Donald Trump placed tariffs on Chinese goods and the pandemic sharpened scrutiny of supply chains.
One example: A $1 billion Foxconn Technology Group factory complex that will churn out Apple Inc. MacBooks is rising in what used to be rice fields in northern Vietnam. Just across the Cau River, GoerTek Inc., a Chinese company that makes AirPods, is building a plant on a site rimmed by banana trees, lotus ponds and grazing buffalo.
With its combination of low labor costs, improving infrastructure and an expanding roster of trade agreements, Vietnam has attracted a host of Apple suppliers, including Luxshare Precision Industry Co. and Pegatron Corp.
The trend of giant electronics manufacturers relocating some production from the Chinese mainland to Vietnam goes back about a decade, but it has accelerated in recent years.
The US is the destination for about a third of Vietnam’s exports, while China is the biggest supplier of materials for Vietnamese producers, from machinery to material for garments.
Vietnam
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $127.5b 174% Imports from China 147.6 104 Greenfield investment: 25.9 21
Vietnam formally upgraded ties with the US in September, shifting the relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”—a diplomatic status previously reserved for a select few, including China and India. The US also announced a partnership in September to help Vietnam develop its nascent semiconductor industry. Vietnam is also a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a three-year-old free-trade agreement spearheaded by China.
The electronics industry contributed 32% of all exports in 2022, about twice as much as a decade ago. The sector employed 1.3 million workers as of June 2022. Vietnamese officials are confident those figures are headed higher. “There are plans for even more factory expansions,” says Nguyen Dinh Vinh, who sits on the management board overseeing industrial parks in Bac Ninh province, where GoerTek is building another factory. —Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and Nguyen Xuan Quynh POLAND: Battery Powerhouse When Poland’s government announced last year that the country would be building its own brand of electric vehicles, called Izera, it was a clear signal that a nation that once boasted several of its own marques had bigger ambitions than being a production hub for Western European automakers. State-owned ElectroMobility Poland signed an agreement with China’s Geely Holding Group in 2022 to supply the technology for the project. Production of a hatchback model and an SUV is scheduled to begin at the end of 2025 at a plant located in the coal mining heartland of Silesia.
Poland already has well-established links to the European auto industry, and such giants as Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG are setting up plants to manufacture electric vehicles in the country. But foreign investment has surged in recent years, with a significant portion of the $125.1 billion in greenfield investment it has attracted since 2017 coming from farther afield.
Poland sits behind only China in global battery production rankings, hosting the likes of LG Chem Ltd., Northvolt AB, SK Innovation Co. and Umicore SA Shipments of made-in-Poland lithium-ion batteries totaled 38 billion zloty ($8.9 billion) last year, equivalent to 2.4% of all exports, according to official data.
The proliferation of battery plants has been accompanied by a jump in imports of raw materials, such as graphite, from China. The value of China’s exports to Poland have risen 112% since 2017, to $38.2 billion last year.
The dependence on Chinese inputs is widely seen as a potential vulnerability for Europe’s nascent EV industry, which is also under assault from a tide of imports of generally lower-priced Chinese plug-in cars. Yet in places such as Poland, longer-term geostrategic concerns carry less weight than the immediate economic boost that the new plants can provide.
Poland
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to EU $257.8b 56% Imports from China 38.2 112 Greenfield investment 17.8 11
LG Energy Solution Ltd.’s 5-year-old lithium-ion battery plant in Wroclaw, in the southwestern part of the country, is the largest facility of its kind in Europe, employing more than 7,000 people. Once a €500 million ($529 million) expansion is completed in 2025, the factory will turn out enough batteries annually to power 1 million plug-in cars.
About an hour’s drive south from Wroclaw, in Nysa, a joint venture between Belgium’s Umicore and Volkswagen will sink €1.7 billion into a plant that will manufacture cathode material, a key component in batteries. Mercedes is building an electric vehicle plant nearby, at a cost of more than €1 billion. —Maciej Martewicz
MEXICO: A Side Door Into the US
This year, Mexico eclipsed China as the biggest exporter of goods to the US. But that doesn’t tell the whole story of how its economic relationship with the colossus next door—and the rest of the world—is changing. Since 2017, the value of Mexico’s imports from China has been growing faster in nominal terms than that of its exports to the US.
That’s because many of the manufacturers opening plants in Mexico’s border states these days are Chinese companies, selling everything from car parts to furniture, with a focus on the US market. The Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks surveyed its members earlier this year and learned that they expect that over the next two years, one in five of the new businesses setting up shop will be Chinese.
In April, TDI Manufacturing Mexico, an offshoot of Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co., a Chinese supplier of cooling systems for cars and heavy machinery, opened a 152,000-square-foot facility in Hofusan Industrial Park, a facility near Monterrey where all the tenants are Chinese.
Yinlun TDI LLC, the California-based subsidiary of the Chinese manufacturer, had been watching labor costs tick up in the US and the cost of importing goods from China increase as well, according to its president and chief executive officer, Scott Chen. So to service clients that include Caterpillar, General Motors and John Deere, the company decided in 2021 to invest $20 million to build the plant in Mexico.
The bet has already paid off. In February 2023, about one year after Yinlun bought the land, the Mexican government announced Tesla Inc. would be opening a Gigafactory to make electric cars in the same state, Nuevo León.
Yinlun’s initial $20 million investment in its first Mexican factory is going to be small, says Chen. But he’s already leased a second larger plant and is thinking about a third.
Meanwhile, he’s working to staff up the new facility by offering bonuses of as much as 80% of base pay to lure technicians and engineers employed by Yinlun’s corporate parent in China to Mexico. Eventually, Chen hopes to replace all but a few of the Chinese workers he has imported with local employees. “Every month, we get more Mexican staff coming on, and the China staff going back to China,” he says. “In two years, we think it’ll be almost all Mexican local staff.”
One of the biggest draws for Yinlun and other Chinese companies setting up shop in Mexico is the country’s 30-year-old free-trade agreement with the US and Canada. Trump successfully pushed for a renegotiation of the original pact with the goal of bolstering manufacturing in North America and reducing US reliance on Chinese imports. He didn’t count on Chinese companies finding in Mexico a side door into the US, one that allowed them to evade the tariffs he levied on US imports from China.
Mexico
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $454.9b 45% Imports from China 77.5 115 Greenfield investment 41.0 47
The result is that investment announcements by Chinese companies jumped nearly 50% in 2022, to $2.5 billion, according to the Latin America and Caribbean Network on China. The momentum has carried into this year. Lingong Heavy Machinery Co. announced in October that it will build an industrial park in Nuevo León that state officials say will lead to $5 billion in industrial investment and some 7,000 jobs.
“Chinese companies have entered a new phase of global configuration,” with Mexico a key link in that process, said Zhang Run, China’s ambassador to the country, at an event hosted by a commission of the Mexican Senate in October. —Maya Averbuch
MOROCCO: Free-Trade Pacts Pay Off Morocco, home to the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, is becoming an important player in the global car industry’s transformation. The mineral is a key ingredient in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, a fast-growing variety of rechargeable cells used in EVs.
The country already has a burgeoning auto sector, with plants owned by Renault SA and Stellantis NV churning out thousands of cars a day, supported by dozens of established American suppliers. They include Southfield, Michigan-based Lear Corp. and Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. of New Albany, Ohio, which announced expansion plans this year.
Now an EV battery supply chain is taking root. Morocco’s strong trade relations with Europe and the US, along with its welcoming attitude toward foreign direct investment, make it a meeting place where companies aligned on either side of the growing US-China divide can compete or collaborate.
In 2022, Morocco saw the announcement of $15.3 billion in new greenfield factory projects funded by foreign investors, almost as much as the five previous years combined. And the trend shows no signs of slowing.
Morocco
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $1.7b 38% Imports from China 5.8 80 Greenfield investment 15.3 290
In May, China’s Gotion High-Tech Co. signed a deal with the kingdom to build a $6.4 billion battery factory, which would be one of the world’s largest. In September, CNGR Advanced Material Co., a Chinese maker of battery components, announced what may become a $2 billion project to produce enough LFP batteries to eventually equip 1 million vehicles a year. CNGR Europe CEO Thorsten Lahrs says Morocco sits in a “sweet spot” for delivering the car batteries of the future.
Yet minerals and market access are only part of the story: US industrial policy is also having an impact. In September, South Korea’s LM Chem and Youyshan, a subsidiary of Huayou Group of China, announced plans to make Morocco their global base in the LFP market, with mass production planned for 2026. In the announcement, the partners were explicit about the economic rationale: The choice of Morocco was influenced by the terms of the US Inflation Reduction Act. The 2022 law offers tax rebates on sales of EVs whose content meet made-in-America thresholds. Parts, and also minerals, sourced from countries that have free-trade agreements with the US count toward those requirements. —Brendan Murray and Annie Lee
INDONESIA: In Search of a Counterweight Indonesia is actively courting companies from both the US and China to deliver on President Joko Widodo’s vision of building out an entire electric vehicle supply chain. Tesla and Volkswagen have been invited to invest, with an eye to balancing Chinese companies’ dominance in refining nickel and making batteries. That’s already yielded unique corporate marriages across geopolitical blocs. In March, Ford Motor Co. signed a deal with China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. and Brazil’s Vale SA to lock down supplies of nickel, a metal used in the production of EV batteries.
With an abundance of natural resources and a 270-million-strong population, Indonesia is betting that it is too important to be forced to choose between the world’s two largest economies.
Batang Industrial Park in Central Java is home to a number of US companies, including some that have relocated from China, such as solar lamp maker Alpan Lighting Products Inc. Meanwhile, Morowali Industrial Park, on the island of Sulawesi, is dominated by Chinese investment, mainly in nickel processing.
Indonesia
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $34.6b 71% Imports from China 71.5 105 Greenfield investment 15.0 48
Still, the balance of US and Chinese investment has grown increasingly lopsided over the years, with Chinese foreign direct investment in the first half of 2023 worth twice that of the US. This prompted Senior Minister Luhut Panjaitan to call out American companies earlier this year for staying on the sidelines. “We can’t keep begging and begging from you,” he said. “You may be angry at us for trading with other countries, but we have to survive.” —Grace Sihombing and Claire Jiao
_________________ Sois généreux avec nous, Ô toi Dieu et donne nous la Victoire
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Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 9:41
Les gars on est complètement d’accord sur le « marketing » à utiliser et j’ai jamais dis qu’on devait faire cavalier seul contre les gde puissance. D’ailleurs diplomatiquement on a réussi à obtenir le soutiens du bloc de l’ouest tout en obtenons une neutralité positive de la chine et la russie.
Mais restons pragmatique qui est notre ennemi ? C’est l’algérie et son proxy. Je dis juste que contre l’algérie et son proxy nous devons impérativement être en mesure de faire cavalier seul militairement parlant et ne pas attendre que les marines ou que le ford viennent nous aider en cas de conflit… ils ne l’ont pas fait par le passé ils ne le feront pas maintenant. Ca n’empêche pas de marketer notre cause comme on le fait déjà, ca n’empêche pas de continuer à travailler au corps la fr et autres.. mais en cas de conflit militaire on doit être prêt. Après y a aussi le principe de la dissuasion, on doit être suffisamment armé préparer pour que l’ennemi en face y réfléchisse à 2 fois avant de nous attaquer! Surtout si il sait qu’on peut aisément frapper ces puits de petrole, ports, raffineries etc
S’agissant du polz nous avons la une occasion en or de repousser le mur aux frontières mauritaniennes au moins du côté de smara, afin de protéger les populations civiles contre des séparatistes qui usent de procéder territoriste, qui se mélangent aux terroristes du sahel et dont il devient difficile de faire la différence.
Mais faire ce que vous dite, ( développer les intérêts économiques des gde puissance etc) pour moi ca doit etre fait en parallèle du renforcement militaire du maroc. Mais laisser des infrastructures stratégiques comme NWM sans protection active, en se disant « au pire les gringo nous protègeront » c’est ça que je trouve utopique
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Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 13:13
Fahed64 a écrit:
Clairement lorsque l'on voit les exportation vers les US on fait figure de petit poussé mais au niveau des investissements dans les ER .... on fait plus que tenir tête
Citation :
These Five Countries Are Key Economic ‘Connectors’ in a Fragmenting World
Vietnam, Poland, Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia are benefiting from the reshuffling of supply chains in response to US-China tensions.
By Enda Curran, Shawn Donnan, Maeva Cousin, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen, Nguyen Xuan Quynh, Maciej Martewicz, Maya Averbuch, Brendan Murray, Annie Lee, Grace Sihombing, and Claire Jiao 2 novembre 2023 at 00:01 UTC−4 You may not have grown up playing with an Erector Set, but perhaps you had another building kit where, with patience and perhaps some parental assistance, you could bolt plastic rods together into colossal structures. The most important pieces were some of the smallest: the connectors. (They were also the quickest to disappear under the rug or into the vacuum.) Without those, you were just another frustrated mini starchitect.
We’d like to introduce you to a real-life set of connectors. That’s our name for a group of countries emerging as important links in a global economy that’s fragmenting into rival blocs. Listen to the rhetoric coming out of Washington and Beijing today, and you’ll hear a lot of “either you’re with us or against us” kind of talk. But not everyone is picking sides.
In collaboration with Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg Businessweek took a dive into trade and investment data and found five nations straddling the new geopolitical fault lines: Vietnam, Poland, Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia. As a group, these countries logged $4 trillion in economic output in 2022—more than India and almost as much as Germany or Japan. Despite their very different politics and pasts, they share an opportunistic desire to seize the economic windfall to be had by positioning themselves as new links between the US and China—or China, Europe and other Asian economies.
The five are by no means the only economies straddling divides, but their geographic location and ability to grease trade has set them up as crucial middle grounds. These guys punch above their weight: They represent 4% of global gross domestic product, yet they’ve attracted slightly over 10%, or $550 billion, of all so-called greenfield investment since 2017. (The term describes outlays for new plants, offices and other facilities by a foreign company establishing or expanding operations in another country.) All have seen their trade with the world accelerate above trend in the past five years, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics.
Economists at the Bank of International Settlements looked at data from more than 25,000 companies and found supply chains lengthening as other countries, especially in Asia, became additional stops in trade between China and the US. Companies shifting supply chains away from China are often moving production to countries whose economies are already highly integrated with China’s, such as Vietnam. Mexico, where investment by Chinese manufacturers has ticked up noticeably in recent years, is also becoming an important link in US-China trade. So it’s not so much that the US and Chinese economies are decoupling—they’re just coupling in different places.
That doesn’t mean all is well. Even if there are winners in this new era, economists warn the overall hit to global growth from the disruption to flow of investment and trade will be negative, with poor nations suffering more than rich ones. For consumers and central banks, one unpleasant side effect will be more expensive goods—hence more persistent inflation—as the shuffling of supply chains drives up production costs.
Still, the connectors are proof that talk of the end of globalization is overwrought. Goods and capital still move across borders—even more of them, in fact. —Enda Curran, Shawn Donnan and Maeva Cousin
VIETNAM: A Delicate Balance Vietnam’s role as a connector economy has been supercharged in the years since former US President Donald Trump placed tariffs on Chinese goods and the pandemic sharpened scrutiny of supply chains.
One example: A $1 billion Foxconn Technology Group factory complex that will churn out Apple Inc. MacBooks is rising in what used to be rice fields in northern Vietnam. Just across the Cau River, GoerTek Inc., a Chinese company that makes AirPods, is building a plant on a site rimmed by banana trees, lotus ponds and grazing buffalo.
With its combination of low labor costs, improving infrastructure and an expanding roster of trade agreements, Vietnam has attracted a host of Apple suppliers, including Luxshare Precision Industry Co. and Pegatron Corp.
The trend of giant electronics manufacturers relocating some production from the Chinese mainland to Vietnam goes back about a decade, but it has accelerated in recent years.
The US is the destination for about a third of Vietnam’s exports, while China is the biggest supplier of materials for Vietnamese producers, from machinery to material for garments.
Vietnam
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $127.5b 174% Imports from China 147.6 104 Greenfield investment: 25.9 21
Vietnam formally upgraded ties with the US in September, shifting the relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”—a diplomatic status previously reserved for a select few, including China and India. The US also announced a partnership in September to help Vietnam develop its nascent semiconductor industry. Vietnam is also a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a three-year-old free-trade agreement spearheaded by China.
The electronics industry contributed 32% of all exports in 2022, about twice as much as a decade ago. The sector employed 1.3 million workers as of June 2022. Vietnamese officials are confident those figures are headed higher. “There are plans for even more factory expansions,” says Nguyen Dinh Vinh, who sits on the management board overseeing industrial parks in Bac Ninh province, where GoerTek is building another factory. —Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and Nguyen Xuan Quynh POLAND: Battery Powerhouse When Poland’s government announced last year that the country would be building its own brand of electric vehicles, called Izera, it was a clear signal that a nation that once boasted several of its own marques had bigger ambitions than being a production hub for Western European automakers. State-owned ElectroMobility Poland signed an agreement with China’s Geely Holding Group in 2022 to supply the technology for the project. Production of a hatchback model and an SUV is scheduled to begin at the end of 2025 at a plant located in the coal mining heartland of Silesia.
Poland already has well-established links to the European auto industry, and such giants as Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG are setting up plants to manufacture electric vehicles in the country. But foreign investment has surged in recent years, with a significant portion of the $125.1 billion in greenfield investment it has attracted since 2017 coming from farther afield.
Poland sits behind only China in global battery production rankings, hosting the likes of LG Chem Ltd., Northvolt AB, SK Innovation Co. and Umicore SA Shipments of made-in-Poland lithium-ion batteries totaled 38 billion zloty ($8.9 billion) last year, equivalent to 2.4% of all exports, according to official data.
The proliferation of battery plants has been accompanied by a jump in imports of raw materials, such as graphite, from China. The value of China’s exports to Poland have risen 112% since 2017, to $38.2 billion last year.
The dependence on Chinese inputs is widely seen as a potential vulnerability for Europe’s nascent EV industry, which is also under assault from a tide of imports of generally lower-priced Chinese plug-in cars. Yet in places such as Poland, longer-term geostrategic concerns carry less weight than the immediate economic boost that the new plants can provide.
Poland
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to EU $257.8b 56% Imports from China 38.2 112 Greenfield investment 17.8 11
LG Energy Solution Ltd.’s 5-year-old lithium-ion battery plant in Wroclaw, in the southwestern part of the country, is the largest facility of its kind in Europe, employing more than 7,000 people. Once a €500 million ($529 million) expansion is completed in 2025, the factory will turn out enough batteries annually to power 1 million plug-in cars.
About an hour’s drive south from Wroclaw, in Nysa, a joint venture between Belgium’s Umicore and Volkswagen will sink €1.7 billion into a plant that will manufacture cathode material, a key component in batteries. Mercedes is building an electric vehicle plant nearby, at a cost of more than €1 billion. —Maciej Martewicz
MEXICO: A Side Door Into the US
This year, Mexico eclipsed China as the biggest exporter of goods to the US. But that doesn’t tell the whole story of how its economic relationship with the colossus next door—and the rest of the world—is changing. Since 2017, the value of Mexico’s imports from China has been growing faster in nominal terms than that of its exports to the US.
That’s because many of the manufacturers opening plants in Mexico’s border states these days are Chinese companies, selling everything from car parts to furniture, with a focus on the US market. The Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks surveyed its members earlier this year and learned that they expect that over the next two years, one in five of the new businesses setting up shop will be Chinese.
In April, TDI Manufacturing Mexico, an offshoot of Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co., a Chinese supplier of cooling systems for cars and heavy machinery, opened a 152,000-square-foot facility in Hofusan Industrial Park, a facility near Monterrey where all the tenants are Chinese.
Yinlun TDI LLC, the California-based subsidiary of the Chinese manufacturer, had been watching labor costs tick up in the US and the cost of importing goods from China increase as well, according to its president and chief executive officer, Scott Chen. So to service clients that include Caterpillar, General Motors and John Deere, the company decided in 2021 to invest $20 million to build the plant in Mexico.
The bet has already paid off. In February 2023, about one year after Yinlun bought the land, the Mexican government announced Tesla Inc. would be opening a Gigafactory to make electric cars in the same state, Nuevo León.
Yinlun’s initial $20 million investment in its first Mexican factory is going to be small, says Chen. But he’s already leased a second larger plant and is thinking about a third.
Meanwhile, he’s working to staff up the new facility by offering bonuses of as much as 80% of base pay to lure technicians and engineers employed by Yinlun’s corporate parent in China to Mexico. Eventually, Chen hopes to replace all but a few of the Chinese workers he has imported with local employees. “Every month, we get more Mexican staff coming on, and the China staff going back to China,” he says. “In two years, we think it’ll be almost all Mexican local staff.”
One of the biggest draws for Yinlun and other Chinese companies setting up shop in Mexico is the country’s 30-year-old free-trade agreement with the US and Canada. Trump successfully pushed for a renegotiation of the original pact with the goal of bolstering manufacturing in North America and reducing US reliance on Chinese imports. He didn’t count on Chinese companies finding in Mexico a side door into the US, one that allowed them to evade the tariffs he levied on US imports from China.
Mexico
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $454.9b 45% Imports from China 77.5 115 Greenfield investment 41.0 47
The result is that investment announcements by Chinese companies jumped nearly 50% in 2022, to $2.5 billion, according to the Latin America and Caribbean Network on China. The momentum has carried into this year. Lingong Heavy Machinery Co. announced in October that it will build an industrial park in Nuevo León that state officials say will lead to $5 billion in industrial investment and some 7,000 jobs.
“Chinese companies have entered a new phase of global configuration,” with Mexico a key link in that process, said Zhang Run, China’s ambassador to the country, at an event hosted by a commission of the Mexican Senate in October. —Maya Averbuch
MOROCCO: Free-Trade Pacts Pay Off Morocco, home to the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, is becoming an important player in the global car industry’s transformation. The mineral is a key ingredient in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, a fast-growing variety of rechargeable cells used in EVs.
The country already has a burgeoning auto sector, with plants owned by Renault SA and Stellantis NV churning out thousands of cars a day, supported by dozens of established American suppliers. They include Southfield, Michigan-based Lear Corp. and Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. of New Albany, Ohio, which announced expansion plans this year.
Now an EV battery supply chain is taking root. Morocco’s strong trade relations with Europe and the US, along with its welcoming attitude toward foreign direct investment, make it a meeting place where companies aligned on either side of the growing US-China divide can compete or collaborate.
In 2022, Morocco saw the announcement of $15.3 billion in new greenfield factory projects funded by foreign investors, almost as much as the five previous years combined. And the trend shows no signs of slowing.
Morocco
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $1.7b 38% Imports from China 5.8 80 Greenfield investment 15.3 290
In May, China’s Gotion High-Tech Co. signed a deal with the kingdom to build a $6.4 billion battery factory, which would be one of the world’s largest. In September, CNGR Advanced Material Co., a Chinese maker of battery components, announced what may become a $2 billion project to produce enough LFP batteries to eventually equip 1 million vehicles a year. CNGR Europe CEO Thorsten Lahrs says Morocco sits in a “sweet spot” for delivering the car batteries of the future.
Yet minerals and market access are only part of the story: US industrial policy is also having an impact. In September, South Korea’s LM Chem and Youyshan, a subsidiary of Huayou Group of China, announced plans to make Morocco their global base in the LFP market, with mass production planned for 2026. In the announcement, the partners were explicit about the economic rationale: The choice of Morocco was influenced by the terms of the US Inflation Reduction Act. The 2022 law offers tax rebates on sales of EVs whose content meet made-in-America thresholds. Parts, and also minerals, sourced from countries that have free-trade agreements with the US count toward those requirements. —Brendan Murray and Annie Lee
INDONESIA: In Search of a Counterweight Indonesia is actively courting companies from both the US and China to deliver on President Joko Widodo’s vision of building out an entire electric vehicle supply chain. Tesla and Volkswagen have been invited to invest, with an eye to balancing Chinese companies’ dominance in refining nickel and making batteries. That’s already yielded unique corporate marriages across geopolitical blocs. In March, Ford Motor Co. signed a deal with China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. and Brazil’s Vale SA to lock down supplies of nickel, a metal used in the production of EV batteries.
With an abundance of natural resources and a 270-million-strong population, Indonesia is betting that it is too important to be forced to choose between the world’s two largest economies.
Batang Industrial Park in Central Java is home to a number of US companies, including some that have relocated from China, such as solar lamp maker Alpan Lighting Products Inc. Meanwhile, Morowali Industrial Park, on the island of Sulawesi, is dominated by Chinese investment, mainly in nickel processing.
Indonesia
2022 Change from 2017
Exports to US $34.6b 71% Imports from China 71.5 105 Greenfield investment 15.0 48
Still, the balance of US and Chinese investment has grown increasingly lopsided over the years, with Chinese foreign direct investment in the first half of 2023 worth twice that of the US. This prompted Senior Minister Luhut Panjaitan to call out American companies earlier this year for staying on the sidelines. “We can’t keep begging and begging from you,” he said. “You may be angry at us for trading with other countries, but we have to survive.” —Grace Sihombing and Claire Jiao
Autre chose messieurs c'est qu'on est le seul pays à avoir une démographie moins importante et un PIB très faible comparé aux autres, pour moi c'est un indicateur encore ume fois qui contredit les statistiques du HCP surtout pour le PIB
butters et simplet aiment ce message
Zakaria Commandant
messages : 1177 Inscrit le : 17/11/2021 Localisation : Paris Nationalité :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 13:31
Je pense que si on compare la consommation d’énergie notamment électrique entre le maroc et d’autres pays comparable en termes de pib, on aura une bonne indication sur notre pib Vous en pensez quoi ?
simplet General de Brigade
messages : 3210 Inscrit le : 20/05/2012 Localisation : MONTREAL Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 13:44
les exportation d'un pays non pétrolier ne peuvent pas dépasser 25% de son PIB
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"Tu ne sais jamais à quel point tu es fort, jusqu'au jour où être fort reste ta seule option."Bob Marley.
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romh General de Division
messages : 4193 Inscrit le : 09/09/2009 Localisation : Royaume Uni Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 13:44
Zakaria a écrit:
Je pense que si on compare la consommation d’énergie notamment électrique entre le maroc et d’autres pays comparable en termes de pib, on aura une bonne indication sur notre pib Vous en pensez quoi ?
C'est pas aussi simple que ça car il faut voir la structure de consommation énergétique et la structure des dépenses des ménages qui n'est pas la même il y a beaucoup de littérature là dessus et beaucoup de travaux empirique aussi mais chaque cas à sa propre spécificités Mais ça reste un indicateur qu'on peut utiliser en combinaison avec d'autres comme le nombre de voitures privé pondéré avec le prix des véhicules, les dépenses en éducation privé etc etc, mais il faut collecter des données quantitatives directement auprès des ménages faut pas trop compter sur les données de la direction des impôts ou des banques
Zakaria aime ce message
RED BISHOP Modérateur
messages : 12329 Inscrit le : 05/04/2008 Localisation : france Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 13:47
Pour moi, on est autour de 175 Milliards de dollars en 2022
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romh General de Division
messages : 4193 Inscrit le : 09/09/2009 Localisation : Royaume Uni Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 14:02
J'ai visité plusieurs pays récemment dans différentes régions en observant leur infrastructures/niveau de prix/ salaires niveau d'industrialisation et démographie.... je peux prétendre par intuition que notre PIB c'est 200b$ minimum
moncef aime ce message
Fahed64 Administrateur
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Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Sam 4 Nov 2023 - 14:04
RED BISHOP a écrit:
Pour moi, on est autour de 175 Milliards de dollars en 2022
Non RED bien plus tu peux rajouter facilement 50 milliards de $
_________________ Sois généreux avec nous, Ô toi Dieu et donne nous la Victoire
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Dim 5 Nov 2023 - 10:44
La problématique du Maroc ce n'est pas la réévaluation du PIB, mais le taux de croissance qui reste très très faible pour un pays en voie d'émergence
Il faut une réforme l'administration et gouvernance, de la fiscalité et du secteur informel
L'éducation est aussi un champs de bataille qui nécessite une refonte pour faire de l'université un espace d'initiation à la création de valeur
mourad27 Modérateur
messages : 8010 Inscrit le : 19/02/2012 Localisation : Kech Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Dim 5 Nov 2023 - 10:57
Il faut pousser a fond vers le e-gov Il faut aussi auditer les ministères et leur mode de fonctionnement Il ya des ministères qui brassent un budget colossal mais qui en plus bloquent lessort économique du pays comme le ministère de l'intérieur qui reste géré de manière archaïque Tu y ajoute le ministère des habous etc On a besoin d'une révolution a ce niveau là
Juste un exemple bête tu prend ton avion a Paris tu as deux trois policiers le reste des contrôles se fait par portiques biométriques T'arrive au Maroc tu as une dizaines de loges avec trois trois opérateurs par loge Je ne parlent pas des contrôles superflus une fois tu as tamponné ton passeports Le nombre de fonctionnaires mobilisés est énorme pour un résultat équivalent problème de gouvernance a tout les niveaux
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Citation :
"je veux pour le Maroc de dirigeants intelligeants , une jeunesse intelligente, apte a saisir les occasions a comprendre le siècle ou elle vie, a ne pas vivre a l'ombre du politisme, mais guidée par le perfectionnisme et surtout pas la réalisation et le réalisme " Hassan II 1996
docleo Modérateur
messages : 2433 Inscrit le : 03/09/2008 Localisation : de garde Nationalité : Médailles de mérite :
Sujet: Re: Économie marocaine Dim 5 Nov 2023 - 10:58
La discordance volume du flux commercial et la valeur du PIB n’est pas une spécificité du Maroc le Vietnam a un flux commercial à 186% du PIB.
_________________ Ne vous demandez pas ce que votre pays peut faire pour vous, mais demandez-vous ce que vous pouvez faire pour votre pays.