Tensions russo-ukrainiens

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BELLINGCAT a écrit:

Investigating The Kerch Strait Incident

On the 25th of November, Ukraine and Russia were involved in one of the most serious confrontations of the almost 5-year long conflict between the two countries. Russian Navy vessels first rammed and then later fired on and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels, marking the first time Russian-flagged military units had officially attacked those of Ukraine.

Like many events in this conflict, both sides put out conflicting stories of what happened, as well as statements accusing the other of breaching international law. But what can we say for certain happened?

The First Confrontation

The opening act of the clash between the two navies began around 07:00 Russian time. Three Ukrainian Navy vessels – the Gyurza-M-class artillery boats ‘Berdyansk’ and ‘Nikopol’ and the tugboat ‘Yany Kapu’ – sailed towards the Kerch Strait, aiming to transit to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. At around this time, they were intercepted by Russian Coast Guard vessels including the ‘Don’ and the ‘Izumrud’.

At this point, the clarity of the picture begins to break down. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claims that Russian vessels attempted to hail the Ukrainian ships and ask them to turn back, as they were not allowed to transit the Kerch Strait without a Russian navigator on board. The Ukrainians, for their part, claim they were illegally intercepted and had the right to free navigation through the strait.

As to what happened next, we need to analyse several primary sources. The first of these is an alleged communications intercept released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). In it, several groups of Russian naval officers discuss the events which took place. There is no specific timeframe given, and it appears that the intercept is a collection of several recordings between different people forming seven discrete conversations.



From this recording, several key pieces of information can be taken away. The first is that the Russian vessel ‘Don’ rammed the ‘Yany Kapu’ twice. Once at 07:35 at the location (44°56’00″N 36°30’08″E) and a second time at 7:44 at (44°56’06″N 36°30’05″E). The second takeaway is that Russian vessel ‘Izumrud’ was damaged in a collision with another Russian ship.

Another piece of evidence is a video showing the Russian ship ‘Don’ appearing to intentionally ram the Ukrainian tug ‘Yany Kapu’. This footage can be seen below.



From this footage, several things can be seen. First, the identity of the boat which the video was shot from can be determined from the distinctive off-set 30mm autocannon seen at 0’51” in the footage, which is also present on the preexisting photos of the ‘Don’. Second, the approximate time of day that the video was shot can also be determined. In the footage, it appears to be shortly after sunrise. According to SunCalc, sunrise on the 25th of November in this area was at 7:46. As such, the video must have been shot within around an hour after sunrise the given the relatively low position of the sun in the sky. As well, in the video, a voice (presumably that of the pilot of the ‘Don’) shouts “eight twenty-one (08:21)” immediately after the collision. It is likely this is the time of the collision and appears to converge with the timeframe suggested by the solar position.

This is further backed up by an apparently unnoticed detail in the video. In it, the tug ‘Yani Kapu’ has already sustained damage from at least two individual strikes. This would confirm that it happened after the 07:35 and 07:44 strikes mentioned in the SBU intercept video. Photos of these areas of damage, when compared to a photo of the undamaged ship taken just a day before can be seen below.

Notably, following this video, the Yani Kapu was struck at least one more time. Video released by Telekanal Zvezda shot an hour or two later in the morning, when the sun was higher in the sky, shows that the tug has sustained additional damage to its port stern, which was not present either in the ramming video or the image taken of the Yani Kapu on the 24th of November.

Further evidence also backs up information from the SBU intercept. Images released by Kerch.FM show damage sustained by the Russian Coast Guard ship ‘Izumrud’. The location of this damage (high on the starboard midship area) is consistent with a strike from a Russian vessel larger than the smaller Ukrainian boats. As well the long scar along the side of the ship is inconsistent with weapons damage. This fits in with the SBU tape wherein a collision between ‘Izumrud’ and another Russian vessel is discussed.

The Second Confrontation

As the day continued, Russian Coast Guard vessels continued blocking manoeuvres against the three Ukrainian ships. A large cargo vessel was used to physically block the narrow passage under the Kerch Bridge, and a separate group of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Sea of Azovwas forced to return to their base in Berdyansk.

Little information exists for what transpired over this period, however, the SBU intercept recording suggests that one of the Russian Coast Guard vessels took on a complement of 10 special forces soldiers to assist in later actions.

The aforementioned Telekanal Zvezda video also contains another piece of useful information. In the first few seconds of the video, a bulk freight ship identified as the ‘Aviona’ can be seen within a few hundred meters from one of the Ukrainian armoured artillery boats. Using ship-tracking website MarineTraffic, we can determine that the ‘Aviona’ was at anchor in the Kerch Strait in effectively the same location for the entirety of November 25. This gives us a new data point for the location of the Ukrainian ships later in the day, much further north than previous positions.

Under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which Ukraine and the Russian Federation are parties to, territorial waters extend at most 12 nautical miles (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state. Notably, this additional position near the ‘Aviona’ shows a Ukrainian vessel within not just the territorial waters of Crimea, but also mainland Russia.

It is also worth noting that Ukraine, as well as most Western countries, does not recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and by extension its territorial sea. Moreover, Ukraine has cited a 2003 agreement with Russia that denotes the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait as a shared waterway, allowing free passage.

After 18:00 local time, however, the Ukrainian ships attempted to leave the area, and return to their home port of Odessa. They were, by all accounts pursued, intercepted, fired on, and boarded. Several Ukrainian soldiers were injured and the ships were later captured by Russian Naval forces.

Both sides made attempts to assert that this clash happened either outside of Russian-claimed territorial waters (in the case of Ukraine) and inside them (in the case of Russia).

The Russian FSB released a detailed timeline of the events of the day, including a number of geographical positions in which key events occurred. These events are plotted on the map seen below.



The Russian FSB makes that point that the initial interception, as well as the warning shots, and finally the shots which hit the ‘Berdyansk’ all took place within the ‘territorial waters of Russia’. This does not align with the location data they themselves released.

Specifically, the most serious incident – the shooting of the ‘Berdyansk’ – took place at 44°51.3’N, 36° 23.4 E (notated in the official release as Ш=44° 51’3 СШ, Д=36° 23’4 ВД). We know the FSB is using decimal arc-minutes in their notation, rather than arc-minutes and arc-seconds, due to the fact that an earlier location is given as (Ш=44° 53’47 СШ, Д=36° 25’76 ВД) something which would be impossible under a degrees and minutes notation style – specifically the final digits ‘76’.


As can be seen in the above image, the FSB data, if correct, shows that the ‘Berdyansk’ was 22.72km from the coast of Crimea, and more than 500m outside of Russian-claimed territorial waters when it came under fire.

Ukraine for its part provided less detailed information regarding key locations during this period.


Unfortunately, while Ukraine asserts that its ships were outside of the 12 nautical mile UNCLOS limit, even if their location data is taken at face value, it is inconclusive. This is due to the fact that they only provided 4-digit locations. Such locations do not pinpoint a single point but rather a rectangle approximately 1.8 km on the N-S axis and 1.3km on the E-W axis. Given this level of imprecision, the positions could be potentially within, or outside of the 12 nautical mile limit. Ukraine likely does have access to more precise location data, and could make this public if it wishes to add clarity.

Additionally, an alleged mayday call released by Ukrainian publication Liga Novosti from one of the three Ukrainian vessels includes the audio “How many wounded do you have? I need help! I need help! Mayday! Mayday!” followed by the coordinates N 44° 51’ 00’’, E 36° 23’ 04’’. This location is southwest of the position Russia claims it fired on the ‘Berdyansk’, and is also outside of the 12 nautical mile limit, and thus in international waters.

As for the details of the confrontation itself, we again fall back on statements by both Ukraine and Russia, in lieu of primary sources. Interestingly, neither country’s statements contradict the other aside from their positions relative to the territorial waters line. Both sides claim that Russian forces shot at and crippled the ‘Berdyansk’, capturing it and the tug Yani Kapu shortly after. Initially, the Ukrainian military claimed that both the ‘Berdyansk’ and the ‘Nikopol’ ships had been damaged, before clarifying at 23:20 (Russian time) that only the ‘Berdyansk’ was hit.



Photos of the Ukrainian ships in port in Kerch post-capture show many small calibre bullet holes in the ‘Berdyansk’ as well as at least one large calibre hole in its bridge. This larger hit especially confirms that Russian forces were not shooting to disable the vessel, but rather to harm the crew. The FSB release itself notes that the Russian Coast Guard vessel ‘Izumrud’ issued threats to the ‘Berdyansk’ that “weapons to kill” would be used if the vessel did not comply with its request to stop.




Summary:

From this information, several things are made clear. Firstly, based on geolocated video footage, Ukrainian ships did enter Russian-claimed territorial waters, both that of Crimea and mainland Russia in the Kerch Strait. Ukraine nonetheless argues this was legally permissible due to the 2003 agreement between the two countries. Secondly, we can say that the Ukrainian tug ‘Yani Kapu’ was intentionally rammed at least four times over a period of at least an hour. Thirdly, based on information provided by the Russian FSB which appears to incriminate themselves, the shooting of the ‘Berdyansk’ most likely took place in international waters.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/11/30/investigating-the-kerch-strait-incident/

rafi a écrit:

En 2014, j'ai regretté les conditions de l'annexion de la Crimée et aujourd'hui je condamne l'usage de la force en Ukraine», écrit-il. «Mais depuis dix ans, je mets en garde contre le refus des Occidentaux de prendre en compte les revendications russes sur l'expansion de l'Otan. Cette attitude conduit aujourd'hui à une confrontation dangereuse qui aurait pu être évitée», poursuit François Fillon...

https://fr.yahoo.com/news/fran%C3%A7ois-fillon-sexprime-linvasion-russe-105356757.html

françois fillon est salarié d'une filiale de gazprom :

https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/francois-fillon-etend-ses-affaires-en-russie-1374787

Peut être..en attendant, je suis bien ok avec lui !!!

Les américains ont foutu le bordel dans cette affaire..

Inhumain ce qu'il vient de sortir...

replaysat a écrit:

https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1497129971944415253?s=20&t=u9w-c92dd9v9mckhVJha4A

https://www.saveecobot.com/en/radiation-maps#9/51.3469/29.7620/gamma/comp+cams+fire

On s'en fiche des radiations de Tchernobyl, la dernière fois elles se sont arrêtées à la frontière, même pas peur...

Ukraine ready to negotiate with Russia. The leadership of Ukraine is open to negotiations with Russia and the sides are now discussing the place and time.

Vote de la résolution au le CS de l onu
Russie:veto
Chine,Inde, UAE :abstention

La France supporte l exclusion de la russie du
SWIFT

Citation :

Important pour l'instant :

Plus de 530 personnes ont été arrêtées lors d'actions anti-guerre en Russie ;
Dmitry Peskov a déclaré que la partie ukrainienne "avait fait une pause" en préparation des négociations. Auparavant, le Kremlin avait déclaré que Kiev et Moscou étaient prêts à commencer à se parler. Kiev a démenti l'information ;
La Russie a interdit les vols vers la Fédération de Russie pour les avions britanniques, la République tchèque, la Pologne et la Bulgarie ferment le ciel pour les vols russes ;
L'Union européenne, la Grande-Bretagne, les États-Unis et le Canada ont annoncé des sanctions personnelles contre le président Poutine et les ministres des Affaires étrangères Lavrov, Medvedev et Mishustin ;
L'indépendance de la « RPD » et de la « LPR » a été reconnue par la république bananière d'Abkhazie ;
Vladimir Zelensky s'est adressé au peuple et a mis en garde contre une nuit difficile ;
Dans de nombreuses villes d'Ukraine, il y a des offensives d'envahisseurs de Russie, les gens se cachent dans des bunkers ;
Les États-Unis ont l'intention d'allouer 6,4 milliards de dollars d'aide à l'Ukraine ;
AFU revendique un avion abattu avec des parachutistes russes à bord, ainsi que deux hélicoptères ;
La Russie a bloqué la résolution du Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU condamnant ses actions en Ukraine ;

Source:NEXTA

Citation :

Le représentant de la Russie auprès de l'ONU, Vasily Nebenzya, a annoncé l'achèvement de l'opération militaire en Ukraine "assez bientôt".

Selon Nebenzi, "les tâches de démilitarisation et de dénazification de l'Ukraine seront achevées bien assez tôt".

Dans le même temps, le représentant ukrainien Serhiy Kislitsa a déclaré que l'Ukraine était prête pour des négociations avec la Russie "sur une base permanente".

https://news.un.org/fr/story/2022/02/1115192

Intéressant l'abstention de l'Inde et surtout les Émirats pr une condamnation light

La Russie est un fort allié de l'Inde .. les capacités nucléaires de l inde ont été renforcé grâce à la Russie..

Les UAE ... occasion de faire coup aux idiots de la maison blanche .. et c'est la position arabe d ailleurs... les UAE représentent les arabes au CS

La France intercepte un cargo russe dans la Manche

Les forces françaises ont indiqué qu'il appartenait à une société sanctionnée par l'Union européenne d'un homme d'affaires lié au président Vladimir
Baltic Leader, le navire russe intercepté par la marine française dans la Manche
Les forces navales françaises ont intercepté un navire battant pavillon russe dans la Manche avec une cargaison de voitures à destination de Saint-Pétersbourg, à la suite des sanctions adoptées par l'Union européenne contre Moscou pour invasion de l'Ukraine, ont annoncé vendredi les autorités.

Le cargo "Baltic Leader", parti de la ville française de Rouen (nord), a été escorté jusqu'au port de Boulogne-sur-Mer, dans la Manche, par les forces françaises, a indiqué à l'AFP le capitaine de la compagnie maritime. préfecture, Véronique Magnin. Le navire est soupçonné d'appartenir à l'une des compagnies visées par les sanctions européennes, a-t-il ajouté.

Le cargo transportant des voitures, à destination de Saint-Pétersbourg, est "fortement suspecté d'être lié aux intérêts russes visés par les sanctions", a déclaré Magnin.
https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20220226/8085801/francia-intercepto-carguero-ruso-canal-mancha.html

Un navire japonais attaqué au large de l'Ukraine

L'un des membres de l'équipage a été blessé.
Un cargo japonais a été touché par un missile russe au large de l'Ukraine.

L'agence de presse japonaise Kyodo News a rapporté qu'un missile avait touché un cargo appartenant à une société japonaise au large de l'Ukraine et qu'un des membres de l'équipage avait été blessé.

Selon l'agence Kyodo, la compagnie maritime enregistrée dans la préfecture d'Ehime, dans l'ouest du Japon, a annoncé que le cargo Namura Queen, qui naviguait en mer Noire, a été touché par un missile.

L'un des 20 membres d'équipage philippins à bord du navire battant pavillon panaméen, qui a été endommagé après que le missile a été touché au large des côtes ukrainiennes, a été blessé.

Le cargo peut actuellement poursuivre sa navigation en partance pour la Turquie afin d'effectuer des études d'évaluation des avaries.

Kyodo, citant des agences de presse étrangères, a rapporté que les autorités ukrainiennes ont déclaré que le navire avait été bombardé par les forces russes
https://www.trt.net.tr/espanol/mundo/2022/02/26/un-barco-japones-atacado-frente-a-las-costas-de-ucrania-1785851

Un véhicule transportant des étudiants marocains et tunisiens de nepro en direction de kiev aurait été touché hier ... a confirmer

Bruce Wayne a écrit:

https://twitter.com/TelQuelOfficiel/status/1497563056527843331

lol !
<< selon Mme Gadel. « La Russie est considérée comme un allié idéologique... >>
déjà que l'arabie saoudite et la russie s'écharpent régulièrement sur les quotas, que l'arabie saoudite régule sa production a la demande des USA, et que qatar est promu allié majeur des USA, dire que la russie est un allié idéologique, désolé, j'ai calé !!!
depuis quand ?
et quelle idéologie ?
l'article visiblement cherche a faire l'intéressant, ou son auteur, mais rate le coche gravement, rien qu'en avançant le chiffre ridicule des échanges CCG avec la russie comme alibi a l'abstention des émirats, qui ne représentent pas la position officielle du CCG soit dit en passant, rend l'article brouillon...
il n'existe aucune raison d'aller plus vite que la musique, c'est ce qu'ont appliqué les pays du CCG, et même le royaume, et pas que eux, le reste des pays arabes et aussi du tiers monde...
les émirats jouent la real-politik a fond, donnant-donnant, ils ne sont pas au conseil de sécurité onusien pour jouer au batman arabe, ils y sont pour leur propres intérêts.
si ça décante leurs contrats d'armement, ils auront bien joué leur coup, sinon, ils capitalisent sur une possibilité de blocage, et donc auront une deuxième chance sur la résolution a venir...

Changement de politique allemande, après avoir autorisé la Hollande à fournir des armes de fabrication allemande à l Ukraine, ils vont fournir 1000 armes anti blindés et 500 stinger

Les allemands sont obligés de le faire car face à la pression des autres pays EU ils risquent de perdre leur leadership, le ministre polonais des affaires étrangères a critiqué ouvertement l' égoïsme allemands dans ce conflit

What appears to be footage of the Ukrainian garrison of Snake Island surrendering to Russian troops has surfaced; earlier the Ukrainian government had claimed they they refused to surrender and had all died heroically pic.twitter.com/6I6tbQS0Fx

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) February 26, 2022

60 de nos compatriotes sont sains et saufs Hamdoullah

Par contre les européens restent réaliste